Interfax-Ukraine
15:57 26.12.2018

Tymoshenko leads among potential presidential candidates in Ukraine in almost every region – poll

4 min read
KYIV. Dec 26 (Interfax-Ukraine) – Batkivschyna Party leader Yulia Tymoshenko with 20.8% of votes from those pollees who have decided and who will vote for their candidate tops the field among possible presidential candidates nationally and in virtually each Ukrainian region, according to a survey conducted by Sociological Group "Rating." The survey was conducted from November 16 through December 10, 2018 among Ukrainians aged 18 and older in all regions of the country, except Russia-occupied Crimea and Donbas. Some 40,000 respondents took part, about 1,600 from every region. The margin of error of the survey is not more than 2.4% at the regional level and not more than 0.5% at the national level. According to the poll, some 13.4% of those polled are ready to vote for showman and Servant of the People Party leader Volodymyr Zelensky, incumbent President Petro Poroshenko will be backed by 11.1% of voters, Opposition Platform – For Life leader Yuriy Boiko by 9.6%, Civil Position Party leader Anatoliy Hrytsenko by 7.8%, Radical Party leader Oleh Liashko by 6.6% and musician Sviatoslav Vakarchuk by 4.6%. Ours Party leader Yevhen Murayev would enjoy 4.5% of votes, and independent MP Oleksandr Shevchenko 4.2%. The rating of other candidates is lower than 3%. However, almost a third of the pollees are either undecided who to vote for or are not going to vote at all. Tymoshenko leads in virtually all Ukrainian regions, except Donetsk, Luhansk and Kharkiv regions, where Boiko is more popular. In Lviv region, Poroshenko and Hrytsenko are in the lead, member of the Verkhovna Rada Oleksandr Shevchenko tops the list in Ivano-Frankivsk region and Zelensky in Mykolaiv region. According to the survey, the most unpopular possible presidential candidate nationwide is Poroshenko, with 50.3% of those polled saying they would not vote for him. Poroshenko is the most unliked possible presidential candidate in all Ukrainian regions, except Lviv region, where Boiko tops the list. Some 21% of the pollees believe that Tymoshenko will win the presidential race. Over the past year, the number of those who are convinced of her victory has doubled. Some 12.8% of those polled are sure of Poroshenko's victory, which is slightly less than in the previous year (15%). The victory of Zelensky is predicted by about 5%, that of Boiko by 3.5%, Liashko by 2.2%, Hrytsenko by 2.1%. Less than 2% of respondents believe in the positive result of others. According to this indicator, Tymoshenko leads in all regions, with the exception of Lviv region, where Poroshenko is seen as the winner of the presidential vote. Supporters of Tymoshenko (81%) and Poroshenko (77%) are mostly confident in their favorites. At the same time, the simulation of the runoff election gave the following results: Tymoshenko confidently wins in pairs with Poroshenko (29% against 15%) and Boiko (29% against 16%). She also has a good result in a pair with Hrytsenko (26% against 21%) and almost equal positions in a pair with Zelensky (25% versus 26%). Among those who intend to vote in the first round, the results are as follows: Tymoshenko also confidently leads in pairs with Poroshenko and Boiko (34% against 18%), has an advantage in a pair with Hrytsenko (30% against 25%) and a slight advantage over Zelensky (30% against 29%). In a regional context, Tymoshenko leads in all regions without exception in the second round of the elections if Poroshenko is there. If Boiko manages to get into the runoff elections, Batkivschyna's leader is inferior to the latter in Donbas and Kharkiv region. If Hrytsenko enters the second round, Tymoshenko beats him in Lviv, Ternopil, Khmelnytsky and Cherkasy regions. Zelensky is ahead of Tymoshenko in the second round in most regions of the country's east and south, at the same time inferior to her in most regions of western and central Ukraine. Batkivschyna is leading in the rating of parties. It is supported by 21.7% of those who have decided on the choice of the party and intend to vote in parliamentary elections. Some 12.4% of those polled are ready to vote for the Servant of the People Party, 9.6% for the Petro Poroshenko Bloc "Solidarity," 9.5% for the Opposition Bloc, 7.8% for the Civil Position Party, 6.5% for the Radical Party, 4.6% for the UKROP Party, 4.2% for the Ours Party, and 4% for the Samopomich Party. Rating of other parties is less than 4%. At the same time, more than a third of the respondents did not decide on the choice of the party or are not going to vote at all. Interfax-Ukraine is the information partner of the project.
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