11:00 22.10.2019

Conservative macroeconomic forecast of Economy Ministry provides for 3.7% GDP growth in 2020, under optimistic scenario - 4.8%

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Conservative macroeconomic forecast of Economy Ministry provides for 3.7% GDP growth in 2020, under optimistic scenario - 4.8%

A conservative estimate by the Ministry of Economic Development, Trade and Agriculture envisages a 3.7% GDP growth in 2020, while under an optimistic scenario - 4.8% growth, Deputy Minister Serhiy Nikolaichuk has said following the preparation of an updated macroeconomic forecast.

"Next year, we expect growth to accelerate to 3.7%," he said during a press briefing.

The minister noted that the updated macroeconomic forecast would be published after it is approved at a government meeting.

The macroeconomic forecast of economic growth for the current year will also be revised from 3.3% to 3.5% of GDP growth, Minister of Economic Development, Trade and Agriculture Tymofiy Mylovanov said during the press briefing.

"The Ministry of Economy will revise its inflation forecast downward, bringing it closer to the NBU forecast," Nikolaichuk noted.

According to him, inflation is projected at 5.5% at the end of 2020.

In addition, the updated macro forecast will take into account the strengthening of the hryvnia (the previous forecast foresaw UAH 28.2/$1), but the figures were not specified.

The updated macro forecast indicators were one of the main subjects of consultations with international partners during the visit to Washington.

"We expect the IMF to have a similar forecast. Now we have agreed on our own, and they have confirmed our preliminary estimates. The forecast will be published a few days after we agree on it at the Cabinet of Ministers. But the numbers there are similar. Today, the IMF forecast is slightly lower but they intend to review it," Mylovanov said.

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