Halyna Yanchenko,The People’s Deputy of Ukraine

 

Don’t believe it when they tell you German politics is predictable. The collapse of Germany’s parliamentary coalition has caught half the world off guard. Europe was just beginning to process the aftermath of the U.S. elections when news broke that Germany, too, is heading for early elections. The parties of the “traffic light” coalition failed to reach a consensus on the 2025 budget, prompting the CDU/CSU to withdraw from the coalition.

Now, Germany faces a vote of confidence in Scholz's government in December and snap elections early next year. Bundestag party leaders have tentatively set the election date for February 23, 2025. While these elections were a surprise for Ukraine as well, their outcome may, unexpectedly, bring good news.

With Ukraine at Heart

Several candidates are vying for the position of the new Chancellor. Among them is Friedrich Merz, the leader of the CDU/CSU. A colleague of Angela Merkel, Merz has drastically changed his stance on Ukraine since the full-scale war began. He has visited Kyiv twice since the invasion started.

His first visit was in May 2022, after the liberation of the Kyiv region, when I had the opportunity to accompany him on a trip to Irpin. Upon returning to Germany, Merz became a staunch advocate for Ukraine’s accelerated European integration, a stark departure from the CDU/CSU’s historically critical position. This shift marked a 180-degree turnaround for the Christian Democrats on Ukraine.

Merz has also frequently criticized Scholz for his indecision and supported the delivery of long-range Taurus missiles to Ukraine. Recently, Friedrich Merz made a bold statement, declaring that if elected Chancellor, he would issue an ultimatum to Putin to cease hostilities in Ukraine. If this demand is unmet within 24 hours, he promises to supply Kyiv with Taurus cruise missiles and permit their use deep inside Russian territory.

And what about Scholz’s party? The Social Democrats recently called on the incumbent Chancellor not to run for party leadership again and to make way for his colleague Pistorius. Boris Pistorius, the current German Defense Minister, is one of the most popular politicians not only within the SPD but across the country. He is proactive and genuinely supportive of Ukraine. He has a clear-eyed view of Russia’s threat to Europe and has set a goal of preparing Germany’s military for war by 2029.

If Pistorius becomes Chancellor, it could open new avenues for military cooperation between Ukraine and Germany, along with new aid initiatives that had previously been blocked by Scholz’s office.

Thus, despite the temporary crisis in Germany, there are strong hopes that the post-election landscape will feature more proactive and resolutely pro-Ukrainian politicians.

At the same time, these scenarios come with risks, primarily the increased presence of marginal yet vocal friends of Putin in German politics.

Germany’s Friends of Putin

This year’s elections carry a distinctive challenge. Germany’s democratic politicians will have to contend with both far-right neo-Nazi parties and left-wing populists. Under normal circumstances, they would have had a year to prepare, but the coalition's collapse has accelerated this timeline.

In September, German politicians faced a shock with the results of elections in two eastern states, Saxony and Thuringia. For the first time in post-war German history, the far-right extremist AfD won local elections, securing over a third of the votes. The newly formed Leftist party, Sarah Wagenknecht’s Bloc, came in third, despite being established just six months prior.

Both the far-right and the left share a pro-Russian stance. Both demand an end to military and financial support for Ukraine and have openly echoed Russian propaganda narratives.

This poses a serious threat, as these politicians could gain significant influence in parliament. While no democratic party would ever form a coalition with extremist groups like the fascist AfD, the growing presence of extremists and their impact on the political agenda is a glaring red flag for all of Germany’s political landscape.

In Ukraine, we cannot ignore this trend or the clear threat of rising anti-Ukrainian sentiment within German society, which directly benefits our adversary, the Russian Federation.

The Leftist Front

What unites Germany’s neo-Nazi “right” and populist “left” is their affection for Russia. Both the Wagenknecht Bloc and the AfD propagate pro-Putin rhetoric and have become megaphones for Russian propaganda since the onset of the full-scale invasion. Unsurprisingly, Russian media outlets constantly amplify their voices.

These parties attempt to frame Russia’s interests as Germany’s interests. During the 2024 local elections, the far-right AfD even promised a referendum on Germany’s withdrawal from the EU if they won. It’s hard to see how this aligns with Germany’s national interest or benefits ordinary Germans. The AfD’s leader in Thuringia, Björn Höcke, further demonstrated his loyalty to Russia by arriving at a polling station in a Russian-made "Niva" car, showcasing his preference for Russian automobiles.

Still, the AfD remains too controversial for any party to consider coalition-building. Russia’s new rising star in German politics is Sarah Wagenknecht’s Bloc. A seasoned politician, Wagenknecht built her career in the post-communist Left Party before launching her own political force in 2024. Her party has already achieved notable success in local elections and established a presence in several regions.

Wagenknecht has long been a defender of Russia’s interests in Germany. In 2017, she called for NATO’s dissolution and a new security agreement tying Germany and Russia together—a proposal that, in hindsight, appears alarmingly naïve given Russia’s aggression in Europe.

Wagenknecht opposed anti-Russian sanctions, urged peace talks directly with Putin, and recently proposed cutting all military aid for Ukraine from the federal budget for 2025. She now warns NATO countries of nuclear war should they continue supporting Ukraine and suggests her “peace plans,” which primarily revolve around “compromise” and territorial concessions by Kyiv.

To prevent pro-Russian forces from gaining dominance in the German parliament, decisive action by democratic forces is needed now.

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Influencing Europe through elections is a long-standing Russian strategy that has been in play for decades. Russia already has a success story within the EU—the governments of Hungary and Slovakia.

However, it’s important to recognize that Russia’s primary target is to strengthen its influence in major EU countries like France and Germany. In France, Marine Le Pen’s bloc failed to gain an upper hand in parliamentary elections, largely due to the unity of democratic forces and strategic candidate placements across constituencies.

Germany’s democratic forces must take note of this experience as they prepare for upcoming elections. Internal competition within the democratic camp must not allow parties that aim to dismantle Germany and Europe from within to gain seats in the Bundestag.