Key Economic Indicators of Ukraine and the World in 2025
The article presents the key macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine and the global economy as of early October 2025. The analysis is prepared on the basis of current data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine (SSSU), the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank, as well as leading national statistical agencies (Eurostat, BEA, NBS, ONS, TurkStat, IBGE). The Marketing and Development Director of Interfax-Ukraine, Maksym Urakin, PhD in Economics and founder of the information and analytical center “Experts Club,” presented an overview of current macroeconomic trends.
Macroeconomic Indicators of Ukraine
The first nine months of 2025 for Ukraine passed in a “managed economy” mode: it maintained adaptability to wartime constraints, but the pace of recovery remained moderate and the investment impulse insufficient. In the NBU’s baseline forecast assessments in the summer of 2025, a guideline of real GDP growth in 2025 at the level of 2.1% appeared, which set the framework for business and financial sector expectations for the second half of the year.
“Based on the results of January–September 2025, Ukraine’s economy demonstrates an ability to maintain basic activity under wartime constraints. The recovery continues, but its pace remains moderate and largely relies on consumption and external financing. Investment activity, according to market observations, is mainly concentrated on restoration and replacement rather than on capacity expansion. The key task for the next quarters is to increase the share of long-term projects in energy, logistics, processing, and technology sectors,” noted the founder of the information and analytical center Experts Club, Maksym Urakin.
Inflation dynamics in September looked more restrained than in the peak periods of the year. According to the State Statistics Service, in September 2025 consumer prices increased by 0.3% m/m, since the beginning of the year—by 6.3%, and annual inflation (September 2025 to September 2024) amounted to 11.9%. Core inflation, meanwhile, was higher in monthly terms: +1.3% m/m, and in annual terms—11.0% y/y.
Monetary policy remained tight and aimed at anchoring expectations: on 11 September 2025 the NBU kept the key policy rate at 15.5%. In parallel, the NBU’s inflation report incorporated the logic of maintaining the 15.5% rate until the fourth quarter of 2025 as an element of the disinflation trajectory and exchange-rate stability.
“The inflation dynamics in 2025 are determined not only by monetary factors, but also by supply-side factors—harvest, logistics, energy constraints, and the import component of costs. Under these conditions, keeping the key policy rate at a high level performs the function of anchoring inflation expectations and reducing pressure on the foreign exchange market. At the same time, monetary measures should be complemented by government policies that stimulate competition and supply in the domestic market. Without this, inflation risks will remain sensitive to price and logistics shocks,” emphasized Maksym Urakin.
Foreign trade remained one of the key sources of macro risks. According to the State Statistics Service, in January–July 2025 exports of goods amounted to $23.31 billion (96.5% of the corresponding period of 2024), while imports amounted to $45.94 billion (116.9%). The negative balance totaled $22.63 billion, reflecting a structural gap between import needs (energy carriers, equipment, critical goods) and export capabilities.
International reserves remained a compensator for wartime risks and the trade imbalance. According to the NBU, as of 1 October 2025 international reserves amounted to $46.52 billion, having increased in September; the NBU also noted that this volume corresponded to financing 5.1 months of future imports.
The debt burden remained high. According to data publicly cited with reference to the Ministry of Finance, as of 30 September 2025 public and publicly guaranteed debt amounted to UAH 8,024.1 billion (equivalent to $194.2 billion); of this, external debt was UAH 6,063.2 billion and domestic debt was UAH 1,960.9 billion.
Global Economy
The global economy in 2025 maintained a trajectory of moderate growth, but with different speeds across regions and heightened sensitivity to trade and financial risks. According to the July update of the IMF’s World Economic Outlook, global growth in 2025 was estimated at 3.0%, and in 2026—at 3.1%, explained by a combination of financial conditions and trade front-loading effects.
The World Bank materials emphasized that prospects remain fragile due to strengthening trade barriers and high uncertainty; in the baseline trajectory, after a weakening of growth rates, it was expected that growth would “pick up” to approximately 2.5% in 2026–2027.
“The global economy in 2025 is growing moderately and unevenly across regions, and the key variables remain financial conditions and trade risks. The United States supports part of global demand, but dependence on the cost of money and the consumption cycle remains. The European economy is recovering slowly, while China shows growth due to industry and exports, with uneven domestic demand. For Ukraine, this means the need to focus on competitive niches and systematic support for exports with higher value added, rather than relying on favorable external conditions,” noted Maksym Urakin.
According to the BEA’s third estimate, in the second quarter of 2025 US real GDP grew by 3.8% at an annual rate, while the first quarter recorded a decline. Among the key growth factors, the BEA cited a reduction in imports (which are subtracted in the GDP calculation) and an increase in consumer spending, partially offset by weaker investment and export dynamics.
According to Eurostat’s preliminary “flash estimate,” in the second quarter of 2025 GDP grew by 0.1% q/q in the euro area and by 0.2% q/q in the EU, indicating a very moderate recovery in economic activity.
According to preliminary estimates published by China’s National Bureau of Statistics, GDP in the first half of 2025 grew by 5.3% y/y, and in the second quarter—by 5.2% y/y, i.e., the economy maintained a pace “above 5%” in annual terms.
According to an official government press release (PIB), India’s real GDP in the first quarter of fiscal year 2025–26 (April–June 2025) grew by 7.8% y/y, confirming one of the highest dynamics among major economies.
TurkStat reported that in the second quarter of 2025 Turkey’s GDP grew by 4.8% y/y, which formally meant an acceleration of annual growth, although for assessing sustainability the structure of demand and foreign trade conditions remained important.
“The main external risks of 2025 are related to trade restrictions, changes in regulatory regimes, the cost of energy, and logistics constraints. Under such conditions, countries with high productivity and a diversified export structure gain an advantage in competition for capital and markets. It is advisable for Ukraine to develop risk management instruments for exporters, expand the geography of sales, and increase the predictability of rules for investors. This reduces dependence on short-term fluctuations in external markets and increases the resilience of the balance of payments,” emphasized Maksym Urakin.
Conclusions
January–September 2025 for Ukraine is a period of relative macro-financial manageability: inflation in September slowed to 11.9% y/y, the NBU maintained the key policy rate at 15.5%, and international reserves increased to $46.52 billion as of 1 October. At the same time, the trade imbalance and high debt burden continue to form medium-term risks, which are addressed not by “stabilization” but by structural changes—investments, productivity, processing, and exports with higher value added.
“In the medium term, the key directions are the development of processing, localization of supply chains where it is economically feasible, and the expansion of exports of products with higher value added. In parallel, it is important to maintain the predictability of monetary and fiscal decisions and ensure transparent conditions for private capital. In the absence of such steps, macro stability will remain largely a function of external financing. If they are in place, it can become the basis for a longer investment cycle and a more resilient structure of the economy,” summarized Maksym Urakin.
Head of the “Economic Monitoring” project, PhD in Economics, Maksym Urakin
