Ministry of Economy expects GDP growth of 4% in 2024 – minister
The Ministry of Economy expects Ukraine's GDP to grow by 4% in 2024, although it previously predicted it at 5%, and such a forecast is included in the draft state budget 2024, First Deputy Prime Minister, Minister of Economy Yulia Svyrydenko has said.
"What do we predict next year? We see, I would say, recovery growth... We expect about 4% [of GDP growth in 2024]," she said during the Dialogues on Sustainability discussion organized by NV Kyiv on Thursday.
The first deputy prime minister said that the Ministry of Economy remains more optimistic, compared to the National Bank, in assessing GDP growth this year – 4% versus 2.9%, respectively.
"What will be the source of this growth? The impulse is the Ukrainian budget, which is filled with macroeconomic assistance, from which military salaries and social expenses are paid, which creates demand in the market, as well as support programs," Svyrydenko said.
According to her, this year all industries are showing growth compared to last year, in particular, in mechanical engineering it is 10%.
The minister of economy also hopes to contribute to the growth of the eOselia state mortgage program: despite the war, it received about 40,000 requests, although in pre-war 2021 about 11,000 loans were issued.
"Now, 3,500 mortgage loans [have been issued], and by the end of the year we expect up to 10,000 [of issued loans]," she said.
At the same time, Svyrydenko called unemployment one of the biggest problems in the economy at present. According to her, the ministry predicts an unprecedentedly high unemployment rate for 2024 – 18.6%, although even during the pandemic unemployment did not exceed 10%. The first deputy prime minister said that businesses face structural unemployment when the level of candidates for a vacancy does not meet the company's requirements. In this regard, the state intends to organize training and retraining programs for a period of six or seven months, she added.
Svyrydenko also said that the government does not plan to increase tax rates next year, but expects the tax base to grow due to business development.