Fuel excise hike may not affect Ukrainian prices due to falling global oil quotations – A-95 director
Despite an increase in the excise tax on motor fuel from January 1, 2026, the final retail price at gas stations may remain unchanged, except for LPG, due to declining global prices for oil and petroleum products, believes Serhiy Kuyun, director of consulting company A-95.
"Due to the decline in global oil and petroleum product prices, procurement costs have recently decreased significantly, and this will be enough to offset the excise increase," he wrote on his Facebook page on Tuesday.
In particular, the expert noted that a possible price increase does not apply to mid-range and higher-priced fuel station networks. At the same time, he did not rule out that prices at low-cost networks could rise by UAH 1.5 per liter.
"There is a slightly different situation with liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), where no one has the necessary buffer. It is unlikely to rise by the full UAH 1.5 per liter, but UAH 1–1.2 per liter will most likely be added," the A-95 director also forecast.
As reported, Ukraine carried out a two-stage increase in fuel excise taxes on September 1, 2024, and January 1, 2025, as a result of which the tax on autogas increased cumulatively by UAH 6.4 per liter, on gasoline by UAH 3 per liter, and on diesel fuel by UAH 4 per liter.
From January 1, 2026, the third stage of the planned increase in excise taxes on motor fuel will take place, in particular: gasoline by UAH 1.75 per liter, diesel fuel by UAH 2.25 per liter, and autogas by UAH 1.5 per liter.
The Verkhovna Rada on July 18 adopted a law on the phased increase of the excise tax on motor fuel.
The bill provides for a schedule of annual increases in excise rates from July 1, 2024, to January 1, 2028. In particular, the excise tax on gasoline is to rise to EUR 359, on diesel fuel to EUR 330, and on LPG to EUR 70.