Forecast for Ukraine's GDP fall by 4.8% in 2020 maintained – Economy minister
There are no grounds for changing the forecast for the decline in Ukraine's real gross domestic product (GDP) in 2020 by 4.8%, there are discrepancies with the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) regarding the forecast for the hryvnia exchange rate and inflation, Minister of Economic Development, Trade and Agriculture Ihor Petrashko has said.
"At present, we are not updating the macro forecast. Now we believe that our calculations have the right to come true. The most important thing is the volume of GDP and employment. In general, for now we see that we are moving in our fairway," he told reporters in Kyiv.
Petrashko recalled the current practice of updating macro forecasts twice a year: since any change entails budgetary changes, and frequent updates to macro forecasts are inappropriate.
"So far, we do not think that macro forecasts will be different. So, we think that there will be some nuances – differences regarding inflation and the hryvnia exchange rate. And these are not small, but important topics that we are monitoring," the minister said.
He explained that the hryvnia exchange rate has recently strengthened and is now quite far from the benchmark defined in the state budget: UAH 26.7/$1 against UAH 29.5/$1.
Regarding inflation, Petrashko emphasized once again that, in his opinion, 11.6% of the government forecast did not pose a threat to macroeconomic stability, but would allow for a faster economic recovery. According to him, the National Bank by its excessively tight monetary policy to the detriment of the economy limits inflation and forecasts by the end of the year at 6%.
The minister noted that if an error with the forecast of inflation or the exchange rate is obvious, then it will be necessary to take compensatory measures for the budget.