Ukraine should reach pre-war electricity consumption in 15 years, but energy mix will change significantly - Ukrenergo
Ukrenergo is focused on increasing electricity consumption in the post-war period by approximately 2% annually and reaching pre-war indicators in 15 years, but with a different energy mix, said Vitaliy Zaichenko, director of management of the integrated power system of Ukraine, member of the company's board.
"When considering the future energy mix, we base ourselves on economic forecasts from the Ministry of Economy, and for the post-war period they are quite optimistic with a growth of 5-7% of the country's GDP. In our calculations, this translates into approximately 2% growth in electricity consumption, and we understand that in 15 years we will return to the pre-war level of consumption, but it will be completely different: both the structure and consumers will change," said Zaichenko during a thematic discussion on the development of Ukraine's energy sector from Energy Club, which was broadcast online, a correspondent of the Energy Reform online portal reports.
According to him, first of all, we should expect an increased level of energy efficiency, which is one of the strategic goals of the state to ensure the efficiency of the economy.
Zaichenko noted that one of the most important factors putting pressure on the energy mix is decarbonization.
"We understand that the state has undertaken to close down thermal generation that does not meet the requirements for environmental friendliness and emissions. But if no significant changes are made to this decarbonization program, then after 2025 we will lose quite a lot of thermal generation that will need to be replaced," explained the chief dispatcher of the integrated power system of Ukraine.
He called the increase in renewable energy generation the second issue in the formation of the energy mix, indicating that by 2030 the capacity of both industrial and prosumer solar power plants could increase to 11,000 MW (currently approximately 6,000 MW).
According to him, this is a natural process, because technologies are becoming cheaper, as is the case with wind power, the development of which is currently hindered only by war.
At the same time, he indicated that the next factor influencing the energy mix would be the need to balance the energy system.
"In order to change this mix and be ready for challenges, the energy system must be flexible. That is why we are holding competitions for additional services, in which gas generation, as well as energy storage systems primarily participate. They are also getting cheaper, this is a global trend, and the development of energy storage systems must be promoted," the director emphasized.