Information Defence: Military-Political Situation in Ukraine as of April 28th
Ihor Zhdanov, Information Defence Project, Open Policy Foundation
Informational Defence of Ukraine provides a daily review of the military-political situation in Ukraine as of the past day of April 28th, based on an analysis of open sources.
1. The Armed Forces of Ukraine heroically restrain the enemy's attacks in the decisive battle for the Donbas.
According to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the greatest activity of the enemy on Thursday has been observed in the Slobozhanskyi and Donetsk directions.
In the Slobozhanskyi direction, enemy units attempted to attack the positions of the Defence Forces of Ukraine in the directions of Brazhkivka and Dovhenke. They were unsuccessful. The occupiers also unsuccessfully tried to take control of the main objects of the Velykha Komyshuvakha.
The Defence Forces of Ukraine have restored control over the settlement of Kutuzivka in the Kharkiv region.
The enemy deployed up to five divisions of the Iskander-M in the Belgorod region and deployed a battalion tactical group of airborne troops to restore combat capability in russia due to significant losses in combatants and military equipment.
In addition, the battalion tactical group from the 29th Army of the Eastern Military District was moved from the territory of the Belgorod region of the russian federation to the Kharkiv region.
In the Donetsk and Tavriia directions, the enemy tried to completely capture Rubizhne, but was unsuccessful, sustained losses and retreated to previously occupied positions.
In the Kurakhiv direction, the enemy unsuccessfully tried to advance in the directions of the settlements of Solodke and Novomykhailivka.
The enemy continued to launch air strikes on Mariupol. The invaders focused their efforts on blocking the Armed Forces units in the area of the Azovstal plant in order to prevent their breakthrough.
In the direction of Donetsk – Zaporizhzhia, the enemy launched an offensive attack in the direction of the settlements Neskuchne and Vremivka, but had no success.
In Yakymivka, the Melitopol district, in the Zaporizhzhia region, a railway bridge was blown up, to which the russian military delivered weapons and fuel from the occupied Crimea.
An attempt to storm the enemy in the areas of the settlements of Oleksandrivka and Tavriiske was successfully repulsed in the Pivdennobuzhskyi direction; Ivanivka and Zahradivka.
Ukraine will defend itself against russian military aggression in any way, including strikes on russia's warehouses and bases. This was stated by the adviser to the head of the President's Office Mykhailo Podoliak on Twitter.
Podoliak made it clear that the world recognises this right for our state, repelling the russian invaders. In particular, Ermak's adviser referred to the words of the US Secretary of State Antony Blinken.
2. Information summaries, reviews and assessments of foreign, Ukrainian intelligence and think tanks.
The United States has lifted some restrictions on intelligence sharing with Ukraine amid intensifying russia's offensive attacks in the east and south. This was reported by Bloomberg.
The National Intelligence Director Avril Haines has informed the Congress about the new steps this month after Mike Turner, a senior Republican on the House Intelligence Committee, wrote a secret letter urging the Biden administration to lift the restrictions.
The expanded exchange is designed to help Ukraine protect and potentially regain territory in these regions, the agency's interlocutor said.
According to the reviews of UK intelligence, the russian Black Sea Fleet, despite the loss of ships, retains the ability to strike at Ukrainian and coastal targets.
It is noted that at this time in the Black Sea operational zone there are about 20 ships of the russian Navy, including submarines. The Bosphorus remains closed to all non-Turkish warships, making russia unable to replace the lost cruiser Moscow in the Black Sea.
3. The russian occupiers are violating international humanitarian law and committing genocide against Ukrainians.
International and national investigation into the mass genocide of the russian occupiers against Ukrainians. The Netherlands will send a team of forensic experts to Ukraine to gather evidence of war crimes as part of an investigation launched by the International Criminal Court in The Hague.
Given the considerable evidence of systematic and numerous war crimes and crimes against humanity committed against Ukrainians by the russian armed forces on the instructions of president putin and members of the russian parliament... The House of Commons recognizes that russia has committed a genocide against the people of Ukraine.
Prosecutor General Iryna Venediktova said on Facebook that prosecutors of the Bucha District Prosecutor's Office "awarded well-deserved titles" of suspects in the treatment of civilians and other violations of the laws and customs of war to 10 servicemen of the 64th Brigade of the russian armed forces.
CNN has released a new video taken from a drone over Bucha, where russian vehicles drive through the streets past the bodies of murdered city dwellers.
The russian occupiers kill and abduct civilians, hold them hostage and torture them. President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy has expressed his gratitude and support to Ukrainians who courageously protest against the russian occupation of the occupied territories of the South in Kherson, in all communities of the region, in the temporarily occupied districts of the Zaporizhzhia region and resist the enemy's rear.
According to the head of the National Centre for Defence Management Mikhail Mizintsev in RIA Novosti, more than a million people have been "evacuated" to russia, including 183,000 children, "from dangerous areas of Ukraine" and the ORDLO since the beginning of the war.
The Ukrainian authorities have repeatedly reported on the forced deportation of Ukrainians, including orphans, to russia, in particular from Mariupol and Izium. According to some data, the occupiers forcibly deported more than 30,000 Mariupol residents to russia.
The russian invaders are launching missile and bomb strikes on civilians, towns and villages. On the night of April 28th, the russian army continued to fire on the Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk regions, Zaporizhzhia, and fired a missile at the village of Shevchenko in the Mykolaiiv area.
In the Sumy region on Wednesday evening at 9:50 p.m., russia has launched a provocative mortar shelling on our territories. More than fifty "attacks", all - in the Esman community. Data on the victims are being clarified.
The Kharkiv region: one artillery shelling of the eastern districts of Kharkiv has continued this night. According to preliminary data, no one was injured during the night. During the day, russians fired on Zolochiv, Derhachi, and Chuhuiiv in the region.
At least one person was killed and two were injured in the enemy shelling of Kharkiv on the afternoon of April 28.
The Luhansk region: the enemy fired at Popasna and Lysychansk ten times; on four occasions, but the attacks lasted a very long time in the Hirske Community. Detailed information on the damage and consequences is being clarified. So far, 4 people have been killed.
The Donetsk region: Avdiivka, Mar’inka, Krasnohorivka, Novomykhailivka, Lyman, Vuhledar are under constant fire. The invaders fired on the Slovianslyi resort, shelling the hospital buildings - the prosecutor's office opened a case for violating the laws and customs of war.
In the afternoon, russian unguided missiles hit an industrial plant and residential areas of New York in the Donetsk region, three people were killed.
On the night of April 28th, the russian occupiers struck at a military field hospital on the territory of the Azovstal plant in Mariupol, having killed and wounded some people.
The Kherson region: strong explosions over the city at night, shelling almost all over the region. There have also been cases of civilian abductions.
The Mykolaiiv area: according to preliminary information, rocket fire fell within the area of Shevchenko. The rocket hit a private house. Data on the victims are being clarified.
The russian militaries launched a missile strike on Zaporizhzhia, three people were injured, two houses in the private sector were damaged.
4. Evacuation of civilians, exchange of prisoners.
The Ukrainian authorities held another exchange of prisoners with the russian occupiers, rescuing 45 Ukrainians, including 5 wounded soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
5. Political and socio-economic situation in Ukraine, economic losses due to russian aggression.
Economic losses due to russian aggression. According to government estimates, only in 2022 GDP may fall by 30-50%. The Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal has written about this in a column for The Economist.
According to him, during the first six weeks of the war, the total damage to Ukraine's economy exceeded $500 billion. "According to government estimates, in the long run this figure could rise to $1 trillion, or five times more than last year's GDP," he said.
In Ukraine, due to hostilities, the total number of disconnected gas distribution stations is 47 out of 1395, 85% of them - in the Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
Restoration of infrastructure in the occupied territories. Local authorities in the Kyiv region plan to install temporary pontoon crossings and structures across all destroyed bridges in the region by the end of May.
6. International support and assistance to Ukraine.
Political support for Ukraine. On Thursday, the US President Joe Biden has asked Congress for $33 billion in support of Ukraine, as well as new legal instruments to tighten sanctions and seize the assets of russian oligarchs. Reuters has reported this, citing US officials.
The big demand for funding includes more than $20 billion in weapons, ammunition and other military aid, as well as $8.5 billion in direct economic aid to the government and $3 billion in humanitarian and food aid.
The US House of Representatives has passed a symbolic bill calling on President Joe Biden to sell frozen luxury items from russia's sanctioned oligarchs and use the money to help Ukraine.
Military assistance to Ukraine. On Thursday, the German Bundestag voted in favour of a document calling on the government to expand and speed up the provision of heavy weapons to Ukraine.
The President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that agreements had been reached between the parties on the repair of Ukrainian military equipment in Bulgaria. He stated this following a meeting with Bulgarian Prime Minister Kiril Petkov in Kyiv, as European Truth reports.
Humanitarian aid to Ukraine. The German federal government wants to invest an additional 20 million euros in cultural support and media assistance to Ukraine.
In two days, more than 4,000 Americans have applied for sponsorship of Ukrainians wishing to come to the United States under the Unite for Ukraine program.
7. Statements, provocations and fakes of the russian aggressors.
russia's Krasnoyarsk region has decided to replenish its own fund of agricultural products through illegal supplies from the occupied territories of Ukraine.
The press service of the Legislative Assembly of the Krasnoyarsk reports that “deputies at the meeting almost unanimously supported the decision to import grain from the Kherson region, which was partially controlled by the russian armed forces. management, and consumer cooperatives”.
However, the news disappeared from the website of the Legislative Assembly of the Krasnoyarsk region that the deputies of the region supported the supply of grain from the Kherson region, which was partially occupied by russia. It is claimed that this news is a fake.
russian intelligence chief Sergei Naryshkin has said he has information about plans by Washington and Warsaw to establish "military-political control of Poland" over its alleged "historical possessions" in Ukraine. This was reported by the kremlin-controlled agency RIA Novosti.
According to the theory promoted by russian intelligence, Poland allegedly wants to send its troops to the western regions of Ukraine under the slogan "protection from russian aggression."
8. Political and socio-economic situation in russia, the impact of international sanctions on it.
New sanctions and restrictions against russia. The EU energy ministers will hold an extraordinary meeting on May 2nd to discuss russia's gas blackmail after Gazprom cut off gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria.
Oil giant Shell will no longer accept petroleum products that contain any portion of Russian origin. Reuters has reported this.
The negative impact of sanctions on the russian economy. russia's real disposable income has reacted to the war in Ukraine and Western sanctions by falling: in the first quarter of 2022, it fell by 1.2% year on year. This follows from the estimates of Rosstat socio-economic situation in March 2022, reports The Bell.
The reason for the decline in real incomes of russians - a sharp rise in prices against the background of sanctions and the devaluation of the ruble. In March, annual inflation in russia jumped to 16.7% from 9.2% in February - such a significant increase for the month was a record since January 1999 (when prices rose by 8.38%).
As of February 24, russia's exports of fossil fuels by sea and pipelines are estimated at 63 billion euros, 71% of which (44 billion) is accounted for by the European Union. This was stated in its analysis by the Centre for Energy and Clean Air Research (CREA).
The largest importers of russian fossil fuels in the last two months are: Germany (9.1 billion euros), Italy (6.9 billion euros), China (6.7 billion euros), the Netherlands (5.9 billion euros), Turkey (4, 1 billion euros) and France (3.8 billion euros).
During the war in Ukraine, the supplies of coal from russia increased by 20%, and liquefied natural gas - by 50%. Gas purchases by the European Union through the pipeline increased by 10%.
According to the results of the first quarter of 2022, the growth of prices for used cars in russia is 20-50%, for the last 12 months - 39-75%.
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The Open Policy Foundation (hereinafter - the Foundation, http://openpolicy.org.ua) is a well-known public organization that conducts analytical research and information campaigns, in particular on Ukrainian and foreign policy, protection of the rights of young people from the temporarily occupied territories to receive higher education in Ukraine.
With the beginning of the russian aggression, the Foundation's experts, together with other leading Ukrainian analysts, have joined a team to implement the Information Defence of Ukraine project. Experts of the project prepare daily reviews of the military-political situation in Ukraine in Ukrainian, English, and Russian, the first reviews was released on February 26th, moderate the telegram channel "Information Defence of Ukraine", https://t.me/info_defense_ua.
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