Information Defence: Military-Political Situation in Ukraine as of April 21st
Ihor Zhdanov, Information Defence Project, Open Policy Foundation
Informational Defence of Ukraine provides a daily review of the military-political situation in Ukraine as of April 21st, based on an analysis of open sources.
1. The Armed Forces of Ukraine are preparing for the decisive battle for the Donbas area.
According to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the Russians continued their attacks in the Eastern Operational Zone in order to establish full control over the territory of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. At the same time, missile and bomb strikes on military and civilian infrastructure throughout Ukraine continue.
In Slobozhanshchyna, Kharkiv is being partially encircled and the city's infrastructure is being destroyed by artillery.
In the Donetsk and Tavriia directions, the enemy tried to take full control of Mariupol. They have continued to carry out air strikes and have attempted assaults in the area of the seaport and the Azovstal plant.
The shelling of Mykolaiiv continues in the Pivdennyi Buh direction, the enemy is trying to improve its tactical position and get closer to the city, but without success.
The total combat losses of the enemy from February 24 to April 21 are approximately: combatants – approximately 21,000 people (liquidated), tanks - 829 units, armored combat vehicles - 2118 units, artillery systems - 393 units, MLRS - 136 units, air defence - 67 units, aircraft - 172 units, helicopters - 151 units, automobiles - 1,508 units, ships / boats - 8 units, fuel tanks - 76 units, UAVs of operational and tactical level - 166 units, special equipment - 27 units, TBM / BRBM (tactical ballistic missile / battlefield range ballistic missile) launchers - 4.
According to updated data from the defenders of Ukraine, the commander of the First Motorized Rifle Regiment of the Second Motorized Rifle Division of the First Tank Army of the Western Military District, Lieutenant Colonel Denis Mezhuyev, was killed. Two members of the same unit, Colonel Kharitonov and Lieutenant Colonel Smirnov, were also seriously injured and are being treated in Moscow.
2. Information summaries and assessments of foreign and Ukrainian intelligence.
A senior US defense official said on Wednesday that russian forces in Ukraine had been reinforced by 17 BTGs last week, four of which had entered Ukraine in the past 24 hours. In general, according to US estimates, there are currently 82 russian BTGs in Ukraine.
According to UK intelligence, russia obviously wants to have significant progress by May 9th, and this may affect how quickly and persistently they will conduct military operations in the near future.
Now russian forces are advancing in the direction of Kramatorsk, and the city is constantly under missile strikes, according to intelligence. Also in the east, there is a high activity of russian troops in the air - to support the attacks of ground forces and to suppress and destroy Ukrainian air defences.
According to the Central Intelligence Agency, The Ministry of Defence of Ukraine, Ukrainian spies intercepted audio conversations of the occupiers which referred to an order to kill all prisoners from the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the area of Popasna, the Luhansk region.
4. The russian occupiers are violating international humanitarian law and committing genocide against Ukrainians.
Crimes of aggression and war cries: 7661
Crimes against national security: 3526.
The key file about the aggression of the russian federation: 591 suspects
208 children died.
376 children were injured (see the chart).
The russian invaders are launching missile and bomb strikes on civilians, towns and villages. In the Kharkiv region, the intensity of shelling decreased, but in the evening Mykolaiiv was hit by missiles, and at night, the “Hurricane” MLRS shelled Zelenodolsk in the Dnipropetrovsk region.
The Luhansk region: the situation is difficult - constant shelling, significant destruction in Rubizhne and Novodruzhesk.
Donetsk: shelling along the entire line of demarcation. On April 20th, the russians wounded five civilians. There are three wounded in Mar’inka and two in Vuhledar.
The Kherson region: due to the invasion, the situation in the region has become more critical. Explosions and shelling are heard in all areas. Destroyed infrastructure. Information on wounded and injured civilians is currently unavailable.
The Mykolaiiv region: in the evening, Mykolaiiv was hit by missiles. The blasts took place in the city center, where only private houses are located. As a result of night attacks in Mykolaiiv, one person was killed, two wounded.
During a shelling of the Kyiv district of Kharkiv on Thursday, a russian shell hit a car, killing two civilians.
According to Onet.pl, russian troops fired on the cemetery of victims of totalitarianism in Kharkov-Pyatihatki, where Polish officers killed by the NKVD (People's Commisariat for Internal Affairs) have been buried. The cemetery was partially destroyed, rockets and cluster munitions fell on it. One of the missiles struck among the graves.
3,820 captured Polish generals and officers executed by the NKVD in 1940 are buried in the Pyatykhatky cemetery.
The russian occupiers kidnap civilians, hold them hostage and torture them. russian invaders have set up several mass graves in the village of Manhush where the bodies of murdered Mariupol residents are being transported by trucks.
The other day a group of Ukrainian teenagers aged 14-15 were brought to one of the charitable foundations of the russian federation (Vladimir) from the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. This was reported by the Verkhovna Rada Commissioner for Human Rights, Lyudmyla Denisova.
There is information that the parents of the children were killed by the russians during the war. It is forbidden to search for the relatives of the children.
In Kakhovka, the Kherson region, the russian invaders released two locals on April 11. Hennadii Murashkin returned home. The fate of another Kakhovka resident, Vasyl Lotaniuk, is unknown.
5. Easter truce, exchange of prisoners, evacuation of civilians.
Easter truce. russia has rejected a proposal by UN Secretary-General António Guterres –supported by the EU and Ukraine– to introduce a four-day "Easter humanitarian break" in Ukraine.
Cartel. Ukrainian authorities conducted a second prisoner exchange in one week, rescuing 19 Ukrainians from captivity, including the wounded.
Among the 19 Ukrainians released from captivity, ten are servicemen of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, including two officers. The other nine are civilians.
Humanitarian corridors. On Thursday April 21st, the evacuation of Ukrainians was to take place from Mariupol and the Kherson region: the villages of Vysokopillia, Novovoznesenske and Myroliubivka.
Unfortunately, humanitarian corridors from the Kherson region did not work, as the russians did not allow buses to take people out, and the shelling continued. The occupiers also captured the coordinator of the evacuation column.
Evacuation buses with 79 Mariupol residents who managed to break the blockade on April 20th arrived in the territory controlled by the Ukrainian government.
6. Political and socio-economic situation in Ukraine, losses due to the russian aggression.
Society and government demonstrate unity, patriotism and faith in victory. The Verkhovna Rada convened again on April 21st when it dismissed detainee Viktor Medvedchuk, a member of the Committee, who was detained trying to escape. Moreover, the Verkhovna Rada extended martial law for one more month.
Since the beginning of the war, more than 250,000 Ukrainians have used the "eEnemy" chatbot, which can be used to report the movement of russian equipment and troops.
The Ukrainian economy, despite the negative effects of hostilities, is showing some signs of recovery. Small and medium-sized catering establishments are resuming their work in Ukraine; in particular, their number began to grow rapidly after the deoccupation of northern Ukraine in early April. This is stated in a study by IT company Poster, which is engaged in the automation of institutions.
Thus, 40% of small and medium-sized institutions are already operating in Kyiv compared to the pre-war figure on February 23, and 41% in the Kyiv region. For comparison, at the end of March in Kyiv there were only 18% of operating institutions, in the Kyiv region - 16%.
In less than a month, the number of open institutions in the Chernihiv region increased from 1% to 20%, in Sumy - from 16% to 49%, compared to pre-war levels. The most difficult situation remains in the Kharkiv, Donetsk and Luhansk regions: 9%, 5% and 0% respectively of the number of institutions operating before the war in those regions work there now.
Ukraine is rebuilding infrastructure in the occupied territories. During the war waged by russia against Ukraine, the Ukrainian military has already liberated 934 settlements.
Police resumed work in 435 settlements, and local self-government in 431 communities. The work of humanitarian headquarters has started in 361 settlements.
7. International support and assistance to Ukraine.
Political support for Ukraine and security guarantees. The Latvian Seimas has adopted a statement on russia's aggression and war crimes in Ukraine, stating that russia is committing genocide against the Ukrainian people.
Military assistance to Ukraine. The Pentagon detailed the contents of the new third package of military aid to Ukraine for $800 million, which was announced on Thursday by US President Joe Biden. Details were provided by Pentagon spokesman John Kirby.
In particular, the package includes: 72,155-mm howitzers and 144,000 artillery pieces of ammunition; 72 tactical machines for towing 155-mm howitzers; more than 121 Phoenix Ghost tactical drones; field equipment and spare parts.
According to BNS, the Minister of Defence, Arvydas Anušauskas, said that Lithuania had given Ukraine heavy mortars to help fight against russian aggression.
A ship with a new cargo of weapons for Ukraine departed from Spain to Poland. The ship has trucks with military materials, 200 tons of ammunition, as well as 20 armoured vehicles.
The transfer of spare parts for military aircraft to Ukraine by partner countries has allowed Ukraine to increase its air force by 20 aircraft.
According to RBC-Ukraine, Slovenia intends to transfer to Ukraine T-72 tanks, which are in service with the country. Instead, she will receive German armoured vehicles.
The German Ministry of Defence has removed all heavy weapons from the list sent to Ukraine. This was reported by Bild, which has Ukrainian and German lists.
The list of Ukraine's request for weapons to fight the russian invasion included a number of heavy weapons: Leopard tanks, Puma and Marder armoured personnel carriers, Boxer armoured vehicles, and Fuch armoured personnel carriers. Back in mid-March, almost all the weapons requested by Ukraine were on the list of supplies to German industry - even two modern Leopard tanks.
According to the publication, after that the Ministry of Defence, at the insistence of Olaf Scholz's office, began to reduce the lists - and as a result, the list of possible exports of German military industry weapons to Ukraine was reduced from 48 to 24 pages.
Financial assistance to Ukraine. The G7 finance ministers have announced additional support for Ukraine that is worth more than $24 billion by 2022 and are ready to increase it if necessary.
The President of the European Council, Charles Michel, announced that the Trust Fund for Solidarity with Ukraine will start working on May 5th, Interfax-Ukraine reported:
"On May 5th, it will be the starting point for this trust fund, from an international donors' conference. It will be organized by Poland, Sweden and with a support of the European Commission, all member states and many international actors," he said.
8. Statements, provocations and fakes of the russian aggressors.
Operational Command "South" reports that the occupiers in the Kherson region have decided to postpone the date of the so-called referendum from early May to April 27. In the temporarily occupied territory of the Kherson region, the self-proclaimed occupation authorities announced the mobilization of males. And to schedule the population census for the period from May 2 to 10. Locals are prohibited from moving between the settlements.
On April 19th, Ukrainian intelligence reported that the russian occupiers were preparing pseudo-referendums in the occupied districts of the Kherson and Mykolaiiv regions to declare so-called "People's Republics" and join russia.
The russian Defence Ministry has again announced the "liberation" of Rubizhne, according to the head of the Luhansk Regional State Administration, Serhii Haidai. The head of the administration also stressed that it was fake information.
This is the third such "liberation" by the occupiers of Rubizhne, based on russia's false reports. For the first time, this settlement "came under the control" of the invaders on March 1st. Then on March 18th, russian propaganda again reported on the "liberation" of Rubizhne and even the "cleansing" of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
9. Political and socio-economic situation in russia, the impact of international sanctions on it.
New sanctions and restrictions against russia. The United States on Wednesday unveiled a new package of sanctions against russia, aimed at russia's key commercial bank Transcapitalbank and a network of more than 40 individuals and legal entities led by sanctions-stricken russian oligarch Konstantin Malofeev.
The United States will ban russian ships from entering American ports, similar to the EU decision. This was announced by US President Joe Biden during a briefing on Thursday.
The United Kingdom has added 26 more russian citizens and companies to the sanctions list, including high-ranking military officials involved in atrocities on the front lines in Ukraine, banned imports of timber and a number of luxury goods, and increased tariffs on trade with russia.
Accounts of russian Binance cryptocurrency users with a total cryptocurrency value of more than €10,000 will be restricted due to EU sanctions against russia.
The National Bank of the Czech Republic has revoked the license of Sberbank CZ, the Czech "daughter" of Sberbank. The decision is not yet final - the bank can file an appeal.
The negative impact of sanctions on the russian economy. VTB, which came under Western sanctions in February, paid a $52 million coupon to the owners of one of the bank's four Eurobond issuers.
The volume of the russian taxi market in 2022 may decrease by 10-20% - market participants see risks in the outflow of drivers from the CIS countries, rising prices for cars, components for them, repairs and insurance.
In early March, the Lithuanian Vičiūnai Group, known in Ukraine as a manufacturer of Viči products, decided to stop their business in russia and is consistently implementing a plan to leave the country.