Information Defence: Military-Political Situation in Ukraine as of April 20th
Ihor Zhdanov, Information Defence Project, Open Policy Foundation
Informational Defence of Ukraine provides a daily review of the military-political situation in Ukraine as of April 20th, based on an analysis of open sources.
1. The Armed Forces of Ukraine are preparing for the decisive battle for the Donbas area.
According to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the enemy is trying to continue the attacks in eastern Ukraine in order to establish full control over the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
In the Donetsk and Tavriia directions, the enemy is doing reconnaissance and preparing for further attacks in the direction of Lyman and Sloviansk from the northeast.
The enemy tried to gain a foothold in the western and northwestern parts of Rubizhne, but failed. They carried out assault operations in the direction of Novotoshkivske, but were unsuccessful. The russian occupiers are carrying out assault operations in the area of the village of Popasna.
Air strikes affect the infrastructure of Mariupol, and the enemy is also carrying out assault operations near the seaport and the Azovstal plant.
In the Slobozhanskyi direction, the occupiers are strengthening groups of army aircraft near the state border of Ukraine. In the territory of the Belgorod region, the equipment of helicopter landing sites has been completed, where more than 90 attack and multi-purpose helicopters are concentrated.
The enemy continues to encircle parts of Kharkiv, trying to cause fire damage to units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and critical infrastructure.
The enemy regrouped its troops in the Izium direction. In the area of Dibrovne, the enemy carried out offensive actions and had a partial success. In the area of Stara Hnylytsia the enemy was unsuccessful: the invader sustained heavy losses as a result of the fire and withdrew. In addition, the attempt to take control of the village of Dovhenke was unsuccessful. The enemy retreated with losses.
In the Zaporizhzhia direction, with the support of artillery fire, the enemy resumed attacks in the direction of the village of Temyrivka.
In the direction of Pivdennyi Buh, the enemy tried to continue the assault operations in the direction of Oleksandrivka, but were unsuccessful.
The total combat losses of the enemy from February 24 to April 20 were approximately: combatants – approximately 20,900 people were killed, tanks - 815 units, armoured combat vehicles - 2087 units, artillery systems - 391 units, MLRS - 136 units, air defense - 67 units, aircraft - 171 units, helicopters - 150 units, motor vehicles - 1504 units, ships / boats - 8 units, fuel tanks - 76, UAVs operational and tactical level - 165, special equipment - 27, TBM / BRBM (tactical ballistic missile / battlefield range ballistic missile) launchers - 4.
A battalion tactical group from the russian 150th Motorized Rifle Division lost its combat capability and was withdrawn to the recovery area.
Additional units of the occupiers are being transferred. At the Kupiansk-Sortuvalnyi railway station, the unloading of the weapons and military equipment and the movement of artillery units was reported.
Ukrainian border guards have crossed the state border in all directions in the Kyiv, Sumy and Chernihiv regions and are resuming positions.
2. Information summaries and assessments of foreign and Ukrainian intelligence, think tanks.
The offensive operations of the russian army in the area of Izium and Donetsk precede larger attacks, according to the US Department of Defense.
To clarify the strategy of the russian attacks, the US Department of Defense official said that it was a mixed approach where the russian army carries out air and long-range attacks to destroy infrastructure.
They continue to replenish their forces. In the last 24 hours, they have added 2 more tactical battalions. We now have 78 of them inside Ukraine.
According to the UK intelligence in its daily review, russia continues to build up forces in eastern Ukraine for its large-scale attacks, and the threat of missile strikes remains in the rest of the territory. The fighting has intensified, the russians are trying to break through Ukrainian positions.
russia's activity in the sky over the northern part of Ukraine is likely to remain low, given the departure of ground forces in this direction. However, there is a threat of missile strikes on important facilities throughout Ukraine - in particular, to disrupt the supply chain of reinforcements and weapons to the East.
According to information received by the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine, the Major General of the Interior of the People's Republic of Belarus, Igor Kornet, was arrested by the russian FSB and is currently being held in the FSB detention center in Rostov-on-Don.
Spies claim that the arrest of the Minister of Internal Affairs of the People's Republic of China provoked a negative reaction from the security forces and the political leadership of the ‘republic’, which assess this as the beginning of changes in the quasi-state power bloc.
It has also been reported that according to the Main Intelligence Department, the leader of the militants of the Luhansk People's Republic, Leonid Pasichnyk, is making every effort to release Cornet from custody.
According to the Oryx think tank, russia lost three and a half times more military equipment during the war than Ukraine.
According to analysts, russia has already lost 3002 units of equipment, including: destroyed: 1588, damaged: 47, abandoned: 244, seized: 1123. Most are the lost trucks, cars and jeeps (834), tanks (521), armored combat vehicles (307), BMP (532).
Ukraine, meanwhile, lost 848 units of equipment: destroyed: 389, damaged: 22, abandoned: 36, captured: 401, e.g. 125 tanks, 88 infantry fighting vehicles, 75 armoured vehicles.
Oryx considers losses of equipment only by photo and video evidence, the equipment that was not recorded in the frames they do not take into account.
3. The russian occupiers are violating international humanitarian law and committing genocide of Ukrainians.
The situation in Mariupol. The commander of the 36th Separate Marine Brigade, Major Serhii Volynskyi (Volyna), who is defending Mariupol, suggested two options for saving the city and its inhabitants:
"The first is a sharp military operation, which will take place right now with all the necessary means.
The second is a political decision. I see it as real in terms of effective diplomacy."
The russian occupiers in Mariupol began threatening to shoot civilians for refusing to tie white ribbons.
91-year-old Vanda Obiedkova, a Holocaust survivor, died in one of the shelters of blockaded Mariupol. In recent weeks, the woman could not even walk. This was reported by Chabad.Org and the Auschwitz-Birkenau State Museum.
Deputy Commander of the Azov Regiment Captain Sviatoslav Palamar said that the defenders of Mariupol were ready to evacuate from the city with the support of a third party. Palamar added that representatives of Ukraine's negotiating team are ready to go to Mariupol to meet with the russian side on evacuation.
The russian aggressors kill Ukrainian children. More than 578 children were injured in Ukraine as a result of full-scale armed aggression by the russian federation. As of the morning of April 20th, the official number of dead children has not changed - 205. The number of injured has increased to 373.
Most children were affected in the Donetsk (118), Kyiv (108), Kharkiv (91), Chernihiv (57), Kherson (43), Mykolaiiv (40), Luhansk (36), Zaporizhzhia (25), Sumy (16), Zhytomyr (15) regions and in Kyiv Capital (16).
In particular, on March 15th, in the village Stara Buda, in the Bucha district of the Kyiv region, two children aged 6 and 8 were injured in a shelling of a residential building. On the same day, the russian military forcibly transported them to the Belarusian city of Mozyr.
April 18th, due to the shelling of a residential area in the village, a 16-year-old boy was injured in Berestovo, the Bakhmut district in the Donetsk region.
The russian invaders are launching missile and bomb strikes on civilians, towns and villages. On the night of April 20th, the russian troops shelled Kharkiv, Mykolaiiv, Novodruzhesk, Bashtanka and Avdijivka.
The Kharkiv region: at night in Kharkiv, the occupiers continued periodic shelling of the outskirts of the Saltivka residential area, no one was injured.
The Luhansk region: heavy shelling of Novodruzhesk – a town located close to Lysychansk. After midnight, the russians opened fire on residential buildings. Two were engaged, the gas pipeline in the city was broken. Several times during the night the enemy also shelled Hirske.
Energy, gas and water supplies will not be restored in the cities of Popasna, Rubizhne and some other villages in the Luhansk region until the end of the war, said the head of the Luhansk regional military administration Serhii Haidai.
The Donetsk region: shelling of Avdijivka, the city center at night. There is significant damage to infrastructure. The city is partially without electricity.
The Kherson region: constant shelling. There is currently no information on the destruction and casualties. In the communities on the border with Mykolaiiv and Dnipropetrovsk regions, there is no light, gas or water.
The Mykolaiiv region: the building of the Bashtanka polyclinic was hit by a rocket strike last night. According to preliminary information, there were no victims. At night, Mykolaiiv again suffered rocket attacks.
The russian occupiers kidnap civilians, hold them hostage, torture them, and kill them. Rescuers dismantled all the rubble of buildings in Borodianka, the Kyiv region, after the russian attacks, and the bodies of 41 people were recovered from the rubble.
The russians forcibly relocated more than 500,000 Ukrainians to russia, including 121,000 children, and Ukrainians are issued documents banning them from leaving Russian regions for two years.
4. Easter truce, evacuation of civilians, exchange of prisoners.
Easter truce. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine stated that "they are grateful to UN Secretary General Antonio Guttersch for the initiative to introduce an Easter four-day "humanitarian break" in Ukraine, starting on Maundy Thursday, April 21st.
We fully share the view that the humanitarian pause is necessary for the safe evacuation of thousands of civilians who wish to leave the dangerous zones of ongoing and possible hostilities, especially from the long-suffering Mariupol. "
UN Secretary General António Guterres called for a four-day humanitarian break for Holy Week, from Holy Thursday to Easter on Sunday, April 24th, to allow a number of humanitarian corridors to open.
Guterres has also noted that the UN is ready to send humanitarian aid to eastern Ukraine during the humanitarian pause.
The European Union supports the call of UN Secretary General António Guterres to cease hostilities in Ukraine during Holy Week from April 21 to 24, Interfax reports.
Humanitarian corridors. The head of the Luhansk regional military administration, Serhii Haidai, said that due to the constant shelling, the evacuation of Kreminna civilians was still impossible, but several people were being evacuated in other communities.
On the afternoon of April 20th, a humanitarian corridor was to open from Mariupol via Manhush and Berdiansk to Zaporizhzhia for women with children and the elderly.
Unfortunately, the humanitarian corridor from Mariupol did not work as was previously planned. Due to the lack of control over their own military on the ground, the occupiers were unable to ensure a proper ceasefire.
Cartel. The President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said that Ukraine is ready for any arrangement of exchanging its russian-blocked civilians and military in Mariupol for russians prisoners.
Mykhailo Podoliak, an adviser to the head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, believes that russia is not interested in exchanging Viktor Medvedchuk because putin's godfather let the kremlin down by misleading a large percentage of pro-russian people among Ukrainians.
5. Ukrainian-russian negotiations.
Dmitry Peskov, a spokesman for the russian president, said that russia had provided Ukraine with a draft document with clear wording, and that "the key is in Kyiv's court." At the same time, the press secretary of the head of the aggressor country once again claimed that "the Ukrainian side is constantly deviating from its previously given agreements, its words, it is constantly changing them."
Ukraine will study russia's proposals for a peace treaty and draw conclusions, said Mykhailo Podoliak, adviser to the head of the Office of the President of Ukraine.
"Within the framework of the Istanbul round, Ukraine conveyed to its opponents its proposals on formulaic solutions, in particular on security guarantees as ensuring further non-attacks on our country. The russian side studied the proposals and expressed its counter-positions. Then it is our turn to study, compare, draw conclusions, in particular of a political and legal nature," Podoliak said.
Following a meeting with European Council President Charles Michel, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy confirmed that Ukraine has not received a draft document from russia as part of negotiations to end the war, according to a European Truth correspondent, and other reporters. Answering the journalist's questions, Zelenskyy stated that not only did he not see proposals from russia, but he was convinced that they did not exist. “I am sure that nothing was handed over to us,” Zelenskyy stressed.
6. Political and socio-economic situation in Ukraine, losses due to russian aggression.
Society demonstrates solidarity, patriotism and faith in victory. In Kyiv, during 55 days of russia's armed aggression against Ukraine, 1,800 couples were married.
Ukraine is rebuilding infrastructure in the occupied territories. The Cabinet of Ministers has adopted resolutions necessary for the organization of work on the restoration or dismantling of buildings and structures damaged by the armed aggression of the russian federation.
Gas distribution companies operating in the Kyiv, Chernihiv, and Sumy regions have resumed gas distribution to 189,738 homes.
7. International support and assistance to Ukraine.
Political support for Ukraine and security guarantees. The Permanent Representative of Ukraine to the UN, Serhii Kyslytsia, criticized the UN Security Council for its inability to take real action on the war in Ukraine and reminded of the illegitimacy of russia's membership in this organization.
The Prime Minister of the United Kingdom called on world leaders to strengthen support for Ukraine, meeting its "critical need" for weapons.
Military assistance to Ukraine. The United States will send more artillery to Ukraine, US President Joe Biden told reporters on Tuesday after talks with allied leaders. Seven more US-assisted flights to Ukraine are expected to arrive in Europe in the next 24 hours.
According to CNN, Pentagon spokesman John Kirby has said that Ukraine has already received assistance from other countries, which will increase the number of military aircraft in service with the Armed Forces.
He clarified that this is assistance that Ukraine has not received from the United States: “I want to say, without going into details about what other countries provide, that they (Ukrainians) have received additional platforms, as well as details to increase their fleet, the size of the fleet. I think it's worth dwelling on.”
The Air Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has confirmed that they have received spare parts and components for aircraft from the Allies - but not new aircrafts.
The American company AeroVironment, a manufacturer of kamikaze drone Switchblade, will donate 100 Quantix Recon drones and training services to the Ministry of Defence and the Territorial Defence Forces of Ukraine free of charge.
The Prime Minister of Canada, Justin Trudeau, said that his country would send heavy artillery to Ukraine.
Norway has decided to hand over Mistral anti-aircraft missile systems to Ukraine: according to Aftenposten, the Norwegian Defence Minister, Bjorn Aril Gram, stated this on April 20th.
"The Mistral air defence system is an effective weapon used in the navy and will be very useful for Ukraine," the minister said. According to him, the weapon has already been sent.
The Czech Republic has agreed to repair Ukrainian tanks and armored personnel carriers damaged during the fighting. This was confirmed by Czech Defence Minister Jana Černochová, the BBC reported. She has said that the first vehicles will be Ukrainian T-64 tanks, but others will follow them, in particular, infantry fighting vehicles.
Financial assistance to Ukraine. Japan has promised to increase loans to Ukraine from $100 million to $300m.
8. Political and socio-economic situation in russia, the impact of international sanctions on it.
The political situation in russia. The russian president putin has decided to start a war against Ukraine with the backing of a handful of close officials; since then the circle of his advisers has become even narrower and people close to the kremlin leader see no chance that he will change his course, Bloomberg reports.
The decision to invade was made by putin and hardliners, including Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu, Chief of General Staff Valery Gerasimov, and russian Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev.
New sanctions and restrictions against russia. Italy will refuse to comply with the kremlin's terms for paying for gas in rubles if the EU concludes that it will violate sanctions related to russia's invasion of Ukraine.
russians and Belarusians will not be allowed to participate at Wimbledon in response to russia's attack on Ukraine.
Japan has officially revoked russia's "most favored nation" trade status due to its invasion of Ukraine.
The negative impact of sanctions on the russian economy. Stocks of foreign electronics and household appliances in warehouses and on the shelves of russian stores will be enough until the summer. The forecast will be justified if there is no rush of demand for equipment in russia and the consignment of goods "stuck in Europe" ordered in the winter is brought to the country.
In April, russian coal exports fell by more than 20%, and since the beginning of the year the decline was 9%.
The American automaker General Motors is laying off employees at its russian headquarters and is the first carmaker to leave russia after its invasion of Ukraine.
The UK energy giant Shell has begun recalling personnel from its joint ventures with Russia's PJSC Gazprom as part of a plan to withdraw from russia in response to the war in Ukraine.
The Japanese corporation Toshiba has announced the suspension of accepting orders and investments in russia.
Apple has removed TikTok from the App Store for their russian users.