Military and Political Situation in Ukraine. Morning of March 30h, 2022
Ihor Zhdanov, Information Defence
Informational Defence of Ukraine provides a daily review of the military-political situation in Ukraine, morning of March 30th, based on an analysis of open sources.
1. The russian occupiers have not achieved success in any of the operational areas and have sustained heavy losses as a result of counterattacks by the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Groups defending Kyiv are continuing hostilities and controlling the situation in the settlements of Motyzhyn, Lisne, Kapitanivka, and Dmytrivka. Our soldiers liberated Irpin.
According to some sources, the occupiers are regrouping and withdrawing troops from Kyiv.
In the Donetsk direction, the enemies increased their firepower and intensified assault operations in most areas. The occupier carried out airstrikes in the settlements of Voievodivka, Rubizhne, Lysychansk, Kreminna, Zolote-4, Popasna, Toretsk and Novhorod. The enemies focus their main efforts on taking control of Popasna and Mariupol. In Berdiansk, the russian occupiers are trying to restore the port infrastructure.
In Donetsk and Luhansk , the United Forces successfully repulsed four enemy attacks during the day and the russian occupiers sustained heavy losses. In particular, Ukrainian defenders destroyed 7 tanks, 7 armoured units and 2 units of motor vehicles, as well as one enemy MT-12 anti-tank gun.
In the Slobozhanskyi direction, the russian occupiers continue to use aircraft and artillery in the settlements of Kharkiv and Barvinkove, trying to capture Izium. Fighting continues in the area of the settlements of Kamianka, Sukha Kamianka, Tykhotske.
In the battles near Kharkiv, the 200th separate motorised infantry brigade of the enemy suffered the losses of two battalion and tactical groups, more than 1,500 servicemen and also the brigade commander, Colonel Denis Kuril.
The command of the occupying forces is trying to compensate for the decline in the combat potential of the enemy units by indiscriminate artillery fire and rocket-bomb attacks, trying to completely destroy the infrastructure and residential areas of Ukrainian cities. The enemy is concentrating on fuel depots in order to complicate logistics and create conditions for a humanitarian crisis.
2. Information summaries and assessments of foreign and Ukrainian intelligence.
According to the latest survey of the UK intelligence, Ukrainian forces continue to conduct local counterattacks northwest of Kyiv, in particular in Irpin, Bucha and Hostomel. These attacks were somewhat successful and the russians were repulsed from a number of positions.
The russian forces continue to attack Mariupol but the city centre remains under Ukrainian control.
According to the UK intelligence on Twitter, the russian private military company Wagner Group has already been deployed in eastern Ukraine.
It is expected that more than 1,000 mercenaries, including administrative staff', will be involved in the fighting. Due to significant losses and the invasion, which has largely stalled, russia has likely been forced to change the priority of Wagner's staff for Ukraine through operations in Africa and Syria.
A Pentagon spokesman quoted by ABC said that the russians had changed their priorities and were moving more actively to eastern Ukraine.
The official called the advance of the russian troops southeast of Izium a “gradual advance” in the direction of Donbass. The United States believes that this may be an attempt to cut off Ukrainian troops in the East from the rest of the country, gain leverage in future negotiations or reorient their goals.
The officials have said that “we are not quite sure what is behind this change of priorities. All I can tell you is what we see.”
After russia announced on Tuesday its decision to “sharply reduce hostilities” in Kyiv and Chernihiv, the United States is already watching the withdrawal of russian troops – CNN, citing two US officials
According to CNN sources, russia is beginning to withdraw some forces, including russian battalion tactical groups (BTG), which are leaving the surrounding areas around the Ukrainian capital. The russian troops are now retreating in some areas of northern Ukraine, presumably to concentrate forces in the south and east.
U.S. intelligence does not rule out that such a retreat could be accompanied by aerial bombardment and artillery attacks on Kyiv: "According to the United States, this is not a short-term regrouping manoeuvre, but a long-term step, as russia has failed to attack Ukrainian territory from the north."
The US Department of Defense has warned that although a “small number” of the russian troops have left Kyiv “on the last day or so,” russia could still use "mass brutality" against the country, including the capital. Pentagon spokesman John Kirby (source - CNN) said at a briefing: “We believe that this is a repositioning, not a real departure, and we must all be prepared to watch a major offensive attacks in other parts of Ukraine. This does not mean that the threat to Kyiv has disappeared.”
3. The russian occupiers continue to violate international humanitarian law.
Violating international humanitarian law, in the occupied settlements of Kyiv, the Zaporizhzhia, Chernihiv, Kherson, and Kharkiv regions, the russian occupiers terrorise local residents and fire on houses; rob, abduct and take Ukrainian civilians hostage.
russian aggressors continue to kill Ukrainian children. As a result of russia's armed aggression, 144 children were killed and more than 220 were injured in Ukraine as of the morning of March 29th, the Prosecutor General's Office has informed.
Children suffered mostly in the Kyiv region - 68, the Kharkiv region - 49, the Donetsk region - 54, the Chernihiv region - 38, the Mykolaiiv region - 30, the Luhansk region - 28, the Zaporizhzhia region - 22, the Zhytomyr region - 15, the Sumy region - 15, the Kherson region – 25, and Kyiv - 16. Data on dead and injured children in the city of Mariupol are in the progress of calculation.
russian invaders continue to attack civilians on a daily basis. The mayor of Chernihiv Vladyslav Atroshenko states that, according to preliminary data, between 350 and 400 people have already died in the city.
The russian occupiers continue to destroy the Kharkiv region - during the day the districts of Kharkiv and the entire region were shelled for 46 times, 280 shellings from "Grad" were also recorded, one person was killed and some were injured.
Rescuers in the city of Liubotyn, near Kharkiv, pulled a man's body out from the rubble and two more people were rescued.
On March 29th around 08:45 in Mykolaiiv as a result of shelling and a strike on the nine-storeyed administrative building there was destruction of the central section of the building of regional state administration from the 9th to 1st floor. 12 people died and 33 were injured. Earlier, SES units rescued and released 18 people from the rubble, who were handed over to ambulance crews.
The russian occupiers fired missiles at the Dnipropetrovsk region, injuring one person, damaging a viaduct and farm machinery.
The abduction of civilians and their hostages continue. The russian occupiers have abducted approximately 30 local leaders, activists, and journalists in Ukraine, and 40,000 Ukrainians have been forcibly relocated to russia and Belarus, as the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine has stated.
On March 28th, servicemen of the russian Armed Forces, threatening with firearms, abducted and held hostage the chairman of the Hola Prystan’ City Council.
The russian military detained Zaporizhzhia journalist Iryna Dubchenko and took her to occupied Donetsk to "conduct investigative actions."
4. Under attacks by the russian occupiers, evacuation through humanitarian corridors continues.
According to Vice Prime Minister of Ukraine Iryna Vereshchuk, the work of three humanitarian corridors in Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions was confirmed on March 29th.
In the Donetsk region, from Mariupol to Zaporizhzhia the rescue was made possible by use of own vehicles. Buses to evacuate Mariupol residents from Berdiansk also left Zaporizhzhia.
In the Zaporizhzhia region, 2 humanitarian corridors: from the city of Melitopol to Zaporizhzhia; from Enerhodar to Zaporizhzhia.
Unfortunately, not all corridors functioned successfully. In Vasylivka, the occupiers blocked convoys of evacuation buses and humanitarian aid trucks sent to Berdiansk, Melitopol, and Enerhodar in the morning. Organised convoys of people on private vehicles traveling to Zaporizhzhia from Tokmak and Enerhodar were also blocked.
On March 29th, 1,665 people arrived in Zaporizhzhia by their own transport through the confirmed 3 humanitarian corridors.
936 people were from Mariupol, and 729 were the residents of the Zaporizhzhia region: Berdiansk, Melitopol, Enerhodar, Polohy, Orikhiv, Huliaypole, and Vasylivka.
5. Socio-economic situation in Ukraine, losses due to russian aggression.
The contraction of the Ukrainian economy in the month of the full-scale war is estimated at 35% and above, and the total losses, taking into account future periods, reach a trillion dollars. This was announced by Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal in an interview with Interfax-Ukraine.
He also noted that hostilities are taking place in 10 regions, where enterprises account for about 50% of the country's GDP.
At the same time, Ukraine's losses from russia's full-scale military aggression, taking into account both the infrastructure and economic damage already provided and future losses in the coming years, exceed $ 1 trillion. This amount consists of three parts.
First: direct infrastructure damage, i.e. destroyed bridges, roads, housing, buildings. Currently, this estimate is about $120 billion, taking into account military and civilian infrastructure the cost is more than $ 270 billion.
Second: the calculation of the losses of the Ukrainian economy, i.e. the fall in GDP per month, when the fighting continues. This is a loss of income and uninvested fund, estimated at $ 290 billion.
Third: the losses incurred as a result of declining GDP in the run-up to pre-war plans, as enterprises that are supposed to bring revenue to the state have been destroyed.
The International Monetary Fund estimates that Ukraine needs about $ 4.8 billion in external financing this year, and that the country's GDP will shrink by 10% if the war ends soon. At the same time, the Fund allows a reduction of -35% this year.
Ukraine's gross domestic product in 2021 reached UAH 5.5 trillion, and real GDP grew by 3.4% after the year of the pandemic.
6. International support and assistance to Ukraine.
Political support for Ukraine. US President Joe Biden has stated that he does not renounce his words that russian president putin cannot remain in power (CNN). He stressed that this did not mean a change in US policy towards russia, and his opinion was based on emotions during the day.
Asked by reporters whether he feared putin would take the remark as an escalation, Joe Biden said he did not care what putin thought of his comments; he spoke to the russian people when he made the remarks.
A ceasefire agreement between russia and Ukraine will not be enough to provoke the lifting of the UK sanctions. This was stated by the Prime Minister of the UK Boris Johnson at a meeting with ministers, according to Reuters.
Military assistance to Ukraine. The UK will hold a donors' conference on Thursday to mobilize more lethal weapons for Ukraine,
Bulgaria urgently needs to help Ukraine strengthen its army. This is stated in a joint statement of six former defence ministers: Boyko Noev, Nikolay Svinarov, Anyu Angelov, Todor Tagarev, Velizar Shalamanov, and Nikolay Nenchev (BNR).
The former ministers note that in these dramatic days, Bulgaria "continues to stand out among its allies from the European Union and NATO with its indecisive and ambiguous policy on military-technical assistance to Ukraine."
Bulgarian Defense Minister Dragomir Zakov said that due to poor military capabilities, the country would not send weapons to Ukraine and would focus on strengthening its own underfunded army.
The Minister of Defence of russia Sergei Shoigu stressed that russia will "respond adequately" if the plans of a number of NATO countries to supply fighter jets and air defence systems to Ukraine are implemented.
Earlier, russia said it would attack convoys with military aid to Ukraine, which could lead to a direct clash with NATO troops.
Humanitarian aid to Ukraine. The Council of the European Union on Monday unanimously agreed on a 10-point plan to support Ukrainian refugees, as well as European Union countries that host most of them.
This was announced after the extraordinary meeting of the Ministers of Internal Affairs of the EU and the Schengen area, by Gérald Darmanin, the Minister of Internal Affairs of France, and Ylwa Johansson, the European Commissioner for Home Affairs, the correspondent of the Deutsche Well reports.
This plan provides for the establishment of an EU platform for the registration of all those arriving and those applying for temporary protection. Currently, this registration takes place only within each EU country, without the exchange of information between national systems.
The plan also provides for the development of measures to combat the exploitation of Ukrainian refugees by criminal groups. The EU Council has also decided to activate a special anti-crime platform to avoid security threats.
A separate item concerns the admission of children, in particular those who arrived in the European Union without adults. In total, 3.8 million Ukrainian refugees arrived in the European Union, half of them children.
For the second week in a row, the March of Mothers is taking place in cities around the world, during which women who left Ukraine because of the war will tell the truth about russia's war crimes. Such actions have already taken place in New York, Atlanta, Berlin, Munich, Brussels, Budapest, Nicosia, Soultzmatt, and Berlin.
The Minister of Finances Serhii Marchenko announced the signing of an agreement with the French Development Agency. As a result, Ukraine will receive 300 million euros in soft loans.
7. Ukrainian-russian negotiations.
On March 29th, another round of Ukrainian-russian negotiations was held with the mediation of Turkey. The Minister for Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Dmytro Kuleba stated that the most ambitious goal of Ukraine in the negotiations with russia in Turkey this week is to reach a ceasefire agreement ( Reuters).
The Minister is convinced that the minimum program consists of humanitarian issues, and that the maximum program is connected with reaching an agreement on a ceasefire. Ukraine does not trade in people, land and sovereignty, and it is upon such a firm position that President Volodymyr Zelenskyy instructed the Ukrainian delegation to take into consideration.”
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has noted that there are no compromises in negotiations with russia on Ukraine's territorial integrity and sovereignty.
As Vladimir Medinsky, the head of the russian delegation, has said after the negotiations, russia has decided to drastically reduce hostilities in Kyiv and Chernihiv. The russians called the negotiations "constructive." According to Medinsky, “the authorities assume that Kyiv will make decisions and create conditions for further normal work.”
Following the negotiations with russia, the Ukrainian leader delegation of Davyd Arakhamia stated that Ukraine wanted security guarantees from signatory countries that would be stricter than NATO Article 5: "We insist that this be an agreement signed by all security guarantors; ratify (parliaments) not to repeat the mistake that was made in the Budapest Memorandum, when it turned out to be just a piece of paper.
We want it to have a functional international mechanism with concrete security guarantees for Ukraine, where the guarantor countries will act in the same way as NATO Article 5, but even tougher, because there is a motivation mechanism. We say that consultations should take place within three days; it could be aggression, a hybrid war, a disguised war in any format.
After that, the guarantor countries must provide us with military assistance with the armed forces, weapons, closing the sky - all that we need so much now and we cannot get”.
The guarantors of Ukraine's security should include UN Security Council member states (USA, russia, the UK, China, France) and Turkey, Germany, Canada, Italy, Poland, and Israel.
The Ukrainian side also believes that since we have unresolved issues with the ORDLO and the Crimea, the guarantees will not work temporarily in these areas. The Ukrainian delegation proposes that the fate of the occupied territories of eastern Ukraine be decided during direct negotiations by President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy and president of russia putin.
Information Defence analysts believe that such proposals of Ukraine are unlikely to receive unanimous support in the all-Ukrainian referendum, as proposed by President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky.
At the same time, experts point out that the mechanism for implementing Ukraine's security guarantees of the proposed agreement differs significantly from the guarantees set out in Article 5 of the Washington Treaty establishing the North Atlantic Alliance (hereinafter - the Treaty). In particular:
First, Article 5 of the Treaty does not refer to any three-day consultations in case of an attack on one of the parties to the Treaty. That is, the guarantees are much stricter. It clearly states that an attack on one of the NATO countries is an attack on other members of the military-political bloc, and other countries will come to its aid immediately, including the use of its own armed forces.
To be precise, we quote Article 5 verbatim: “The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognised by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.”
As you can see, there are no three-day consultations with the 11 countries that guarantee security. After all, in case of hostilities, the bill is often not for days, but for hours. An automatic response is provided for in the text of the Agreement.
Secondly, in view of the provisions of Article 5 of the Treaty, the statement of Ukrainian high-ranking officials that future Ukrainian guarantees will even include the closure of the skies over Ukraine by security guarantors seems rather dubious.
The requirements of Article 5 provide for the full use of the armed forces to protect NATO member countries. If we extrapolate this to the current situation in Ukraine, if we were members of the North Atlantic Alliance, Mariupol, Kyiv, Kharkiv and other Ukrainian cities would be defended by US, UK militaries, and Poles, and other allies. Patriot systems would shoot down russian planes and missiles, and NATO navies would attack the russian Black Sea Fleet. An issue regarding the “no fly zone” would not arise at all, because it would be clear to anyone.
Thirdly, it is completely unclear how the aggressor country, russia, appeared among the guarantors of Ukraine's security. Sorry, but it's the same as putting a hyena to guard the meat.
russia has waged an unprovoked war against Ukraine and cannot be a guarantor of its security. In the opinion of Information Defence experts, this is a completely understandable situation.
The fact that russia is a member of the UN Security Council is also not a reason for its inclusion in the countries of guarantors of Ukrainian security. The UN, as an international organisation, has demonstrated its complete helplessness in preventing wars and military conflicts. In addition, russia's right to veto UN Security Council decisions only allows putin to pursue his aggressive policies with impunity.
These proposals of the Ukrainian side will be the subject of a rather sharp domestic political debate. The main thing is to preserve the unity of the country in the face of russian aggression.
8. Provocations and fakes of russian aggressors.
The russians were driving without protection through the territory of the Rudyi Lis in the Chornobyl zone, raising radioactive dust. This was announced by Chornobyl workers in a comment to Reuters .
The russian soldiers who took to the site of the Chornobyl nuclear accident drove their armoured vehicles without radiation protection through a highly toxic area called the Rudyi Lis, raising clouds of radioactive dust.
The large area around Chornobyl is closed to anyone who does not work there and does not have a special permit, but the Rudyi Lis is considered so polluted that even workers at the nuclear power plant are not allowed there.
The nuclear installation "Source of Neutrons" came under russian fire in Kharkiv.
IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi said Ukraine had told the International Atomic Energy Agency that the Kharkov nuclear research facility had suffered additional damage since it came under renewed fire a few days ago, but that little of its nuclear material remained intact.
He also stressed that the facility's nuclear material is subcritical - it cannot have a nuclear chain reaction - and the stockpile of radioactive substances is low.
9. Political and socio-economic situation in russia, the impact of international sanctions on it.
russia is not going to supply natural gas to European countries without payment for russian gas supplies. This was stated in an interview with PBS by the kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov. Haven being asked whether russia is going to turn off gas if it is not paid for in rubles, Peskov said: "No payments, no gas."
It should be noted that the previous day the Group of Seven countries rejected russia's demands to pay gas bills in rubles.
New sanctions and restrictions are being imposed on russia. According to the Minister of Foreign Relations of Australia Marise Ann Payne, Australia is imposing sanctions on 39 russian citizens in connection with the "Magnitsky Act".
The Australian government, in honor of Sergei Magnitsky and all those who defend the rule of law, is imposing sanctions “on 14 russian people responsible for the serious corruption he has exposed.” The sanctions will also cover 25 russians involved in Magnitsky's death.
As The Financial Times reported, the United States want to take steps to limit russia's ability to buy military parts abroad.
Washington is targeting “key nodes in the supply chain to weaken russia's armed forces and its defence industry, which still relies on Western technology.”
The UK government calls on all public sector organisations to urgently review and, if possible, terminate contracts with russian and Belarusian companies.
Japan has banned the export of luxury goods to russia after April 5. This includes luxury cars, motorcycles, alcoholic beverages, cosmetics, works of art, and jewellery.
According to the government, cars account for a significant share of supplies to russia from Japan that was 627.8 billion yen ($ 5 billion) in 2020.
The Executive Committee of the International Biathlon Union (IBU) unanimously decided to immediately suspend the activities of the national federations of russia and Belarus.
The International Emmy Award refused to consider russian television programs at this year’s competition. The relevant decision was made by the International Academy of Television Arts and Sciences .
Large international companies continue to leave the russian trade market. Bloomberg LP, the parent company of Bloomberg News is suspending its work in russia and Belarus due to the russian invasion of Ukraine, but the media resource will continue to operate.
The American Ball Corporation, which produces aluminum cans, has announced its decision to leave russia.
Canadian oil service company Calfrac Well Services Ltd. announced the suspension of any investment in russia.
The largest manufacturer of bearings in the world and in russia, the Swedish company SKF, announced the shutdown of its plant in russia.
French sports goods chain Decathlon has announced the suspension of its stores in russia.
The russian version of the Meta social network Instagram, banned in russia, called Rosgram worked in a pilot mode. This was reported in its channel in the Telegram.
The design of the application copies the original design of Instagram, but does not have, for example, the ability to edit photos. First, access will be open to bloggers and investors, and in April to everyone.