Military and Political Situation in Ukraine. Morning of March 20th, 2022
Ihor Zhdanov, Information Defense
Informational Defence of Ukraine provides a daily review of the military-political situation in Ukraine, morning of March 20th, based on an analysis of open sources.
1. The russian occupiers have not achieved a success in any of the operational areas and have sustained heavy losses as a result of counterattacks by the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
According to the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine, The Armed Forces of Ukraine are holding back the enemy and carrying out counter-attacks in certain operational areas. They are inflicting artillery and rocket-bomb attacks on groups of troops and columns of equipment.
In most operational areas the situation is without significant changes, there are battles of local significance, the war has moved to the positional stage.
The main fighting took place in eastern Ukraine, in the area of the Joint Forces Operation. Ukrainian soldiers repulsed 10 enemy attacks in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
On the night from Saturday to Sunday in the Luhansk region, fighting continued in the area of Rubizhne and Popasna, during Sunday morning the centre of Rubizhne is being cleared of russian occupiers.
In the direction of Izium, the enemy tried to break through the defences of Ukrainian troops, but was not successful; the invaders' assault units were destroyed.
In the area of the Joint Forces Operation, in a day, on March 19th, Ukrainian defenders destroyed: 10 BMD; 2 MT-LB; 8 tanks; 7 BMP-2; 1 armoured personnel carrier; 10 trucks; the losses of the enemy's manpower amounted to more than 100 people.
To address the issue of russian losses, the troops of the 155th Separate Marine Brigade (Vladivostok) and the 40th Separate Marine Brigade (Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky) were transferred to Belarus.
The Ministry of Defence has said that the russian military used hypersonic missiles of the Dagger complex to destroy underground military combatants in western Ukraine in Deliatyn (the Ivano-Frankivsk region).
The UK Ministry of Defence has informed that the russians had recently been forced to change their operational approach and were currently pursuing a strategy of depletion, including through the excessive use of missiles, which increased civilian casualties, destroyed infrastructure and intensified the humanitarian crisis in Ukraine.
According to the Prosecutor General of Ukraine Irina Venedyktova in an interview with the BBC, special camps for prisoners of war for the russian invaders have opened in Ukraine, as required by the Geneva Convention. There are 562 russian prisoners of war in Ukraine.
2. The russian invaders continue to violate international humanitarian law.
The strength of the victims of putin's aggression will continue to grow. According to the Office of the Prosecutor General, at least 112 children were killed and more than 140 were injured in the fighting.
Rocket and bomb strikes on Ukrainian cities continue. As we have analysed in the previous review, such massive shelling cannot be explained by the executor's excess and tragic mistakes as a result of the use of indiscriminate type ammunition. Let us emphasise once again that the only logical explanation is a deliberate mass terrorism in order to break the spirit and will to victory of both the Ukrainian people and the top military and political leaders of the country.
Here are some (not all) examples of state terrorism by the russian invaders in recent days.
On March 18th, russian invaders fired two missiles at a suburb of Zaporizhzhia, killing nine people and wounding 17.
In the Donetsk region, russian troops shelled 8 settlements on March 18th, damaged 37 buildings, killed and wounded civilians, and injured children.
March 19th, the russian occupiers dropped bombs on the G12 Art School in the Livoberezhnyi district of Mariupol, where about 400 Mariupol residents (women, children and elderly people), were hiding.
On March 18th, the occupiers fired heavy artillery at settlements in the Bucha region, killing seven civilians.
In the town of Rubizhne, the Luhansk region, a house collapsed as a result of enemy shelling, killing one adult and two children, with another child rescued.
There were fires as a result of the shelling of Kharkiv by russian troops in Pivnichna Saltivka and Velyka Danylivka. According to preliminary information from the Emergency Medical Centre, there are dead and injured, including a child. In the Industrial District of Kharkiv five civilians were killed during the shelling on the night of March 19-20th, including a boy who was only 9 years old.
3. Under attacks of the russian invaders, evacuation through humanitarian corridors continues.
On March 19th, 10 humanitarian corridors had to be opened in Ukraine.
The Donetsk region: from Mariupol to Zaporizhzhia. The Kyiv region: from the village of Bervytsia to Brovary; from Bucha to the village of Bilohorodka; from the village of Bohdanivka to Brovary; from Borodianka to Bila Tserkva. The Luhansk region: from Lysychansk to Bakhmut; from Severodonetsk to Bakhmut; from Rubizhne to Bakhmut; from Popasna to Bakhmut. The Kherson region: it is planned to deliver 14 trucks of humanitarian aid to Kherson.
According to Vice-Prime-Minister of Ukraine Iryna Vereshchuk, instead of 10 only 8 humanitarian corridors were opened on March 19th.
In the Donetsk region, 4,128 people, including 1,172 children, left Mariupol for Zaporizhzhia through the humanitarian corridor.
Also, almost 500 Mariupol residents were transported by bus from Manhush to Berdiansk, who will be able to go to Zaporizhzhia by bus on Sunday morning.
In the Kyiv region, 500 people were deported from the village of Bervytsia to Brovary, 320 people were evacuated from Bucha to the village of Bilohorodka, and a thousand people were evacuated from Bohdanivka to Brovary. The evacuation from Borodyanka to Bila Tserkva did not take place due to the shelling.
In the Luhansk region, 160 people went from Lysychansk to Bakhmut, 160 people went from Severodonetsk to Bakhmut, 45 people went from Rubizhne for Bakhmut, and 310 people went from Popasna to Bakhmut. Humanitarian goods, food, and medicine were also delivered to these cities.
In the Kherson region, 14 trucks with humanitarian aid for the cities of the region were stopped by the occupying forces halfway; the delivery of humanitarian goods did not take place.
A total of 6,623 people were evacuated on March 19th.
4. The Ukrainian government, business, and citizens are demonstrating solidarity and consolidating their efforts to confront the enemy.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy gave a task to the Cabinet of Ministers to develop a comprehensive program to support Ukrainian citizens deprived of their homes due to the russian invasion of Ukraine.
As the head of country has noted, the program has several components: “the first component is financial. The country provides support for all displaced people, including adults and children.
The second component concerns housing. The government is preparing concrete proposals to provide housing for internally displaced people right now, as well as organising the reconstruction of destroyed housing after the war.
Unfortunately, a political debate in Ukraine has confronted the supporters of the incumbent President of Ukraine and supporters of the fifth President of Ukraine. This situation does not provide the consolidation and cohesion of society during the russian aggression.
Therefore, the fifth President of Ukraine, the leader of the political party “European Solidarity” Petro Poroshenko called on citizens for the war period to refrain from political debates that promote discord and harm the country. In turn, the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valerii Zaluzhnyi called on politicians in the rear not to humiliate our defenders with their “expert assessments”.
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said that taking into account the full-scale invasion by russia, the National Security and Defence Council has decided to suspend in Ukraine a number of parties with ties to the aggressor country.
They are: "Opposition Platform - For Life", "Party of Sharii", "Ours", "Opposition Bloc", "Left Opposition", "Union of Left Forces", "A State", "Progressive Socialist Party of Ukraine", "Socialist Party Of Ukraine", party "Socialists", "Bloc of Vladimir Saldo" .
5. International support and assistance to Ukraine.
Military aid to Ukraine continues to grow. In the near future, Ukraine will receive air defence systems and other weapons from the United States. The announced aid package includes: 800 units of air defence systems of various ranges; drones ; 9,000 units of anti-tank systems; 7,000 small arms and 20 million rounds of ammunition.
Ukraine received only 500 of the 2,700 Strela anti-aircraft missiles promised by Germany in early March. According to Ukrainian government circles, no further deliveries of Strela are planned.
As it has turned out, hundreds of the 2,700 Strela anti-aircraft missiles that the German government had promised to hand over to Ukraine were not only completely obsolete, but also unusable – and the entire batch of MANPADS was also understaffed.
Thanks to the financial support from foreign partners, the reserves of the National Bank of Ukraine are now higher than before the full-scale invasion by russia.
The National Bank has already received $ 1.4 billion from the International Monetary Fund, the first tranches (€ 300 million) of macro-financial assistance from the European Union and $ 311 million from the World Bank. Another € 300 million is also expected from the EU under the second transaction in the first tranche.
6. Provocations and fakes of russian aggressors.
The russian Armed Forces mined the sea routes from the Bosphorus to Odesa. Information about this was spread by the seaport of Sochi, emphasising that Ukrainian mines were adrift after the storm.
Ukrainian Pravda received the confirmation that misinformation was spreading about mines allegedly drifting through the fault of Ukrainian forces. The warning of the russians is aimed at preventing maritime traffic of commercial vessels in the Black Sea.
BlackSeaNews media informs that the russian Black Sea Fleet is mining the recommended routes of commercial vessels from the Bosphorus in the direction of Odesa, this is supported by lies about “Ukrainian mines destroyed by a storm”.
The United Nations has no information on any biological weapons program being implemented in Ukraine. This was stated by the UN Under-Secretary-General and High Representative for Disarmament Affairs Izumi Nakamitsu at a meeting of the Security Council in response to new allegations from russia.
The spokesman of the Ministry of Defence of the russian federation Ihor Konashenkov has said that representatives of the Azov Battalion allegedly planned to carry out a terrorist attack in Lviv against diplomats from the United States and other Western countries to present it as an attack by russia.
The russian occupiers forcibly deported several thousand Mariupol residents to russian territory, including remote areas.
In place of confiscated passports, they were issued certificates that require them to live in the selected russian city for at least 2 years and work at a certain place.
7. Sanctions against russia are intensifying, and more and more companies are leaving the russian trade market.
The UK Prime-Minister Boris Johnson said that to normalise relations with russian president putin as in 2014 would be a mistake.
He also compared russia's attack on Ukraine to the actions of the Nazis and warned that the kremlin's victory would be “the beginning of a new era of intimidation throughout Eastern Europe.”
The imposed sanctions are having a negative impact on the state of the russian economy. The UK Center for Economics and Business Research estimates that sanctions will reduce Russia's GDP by 14% in 2022.
Experts believe that russian inflation will reach 30% in early 2023, and real wages will fall by 18% over the next 12 months. By December 2024, real wages will fall by 25.7%.
russia's aviation industry is degrading. The US Department of Commerce on Friday proceeded to the actual "landing" of 100 aircraft that recently flew to russia and are suspected of violating export control rules.
The list includes 99 Boeing aircraft operated by russian passenger and cargo carriers, including Aeroflot, AirBridge Cargo, Utair, Nordwind, Azur Air and Aviastar-TU, as well as Gulfstream G650 that belongs to Abramovich, which may further hinder russia's efforts to continue some international flights.
The Ministry of Transport of the russian federation estimates that the additional costs of carriers from 19 countries to which russia has closed transit through its territory amount to more than $ 37.5 million per week. This increases ticket prices and increases the cost of transporting goods, for which passengers and shippers pay.
Despite EU sanctions, a russian cargo plane flew from Moscow to Slovakia and returned to russia. It is unknown at this time what it will now do after leaving the airport.
russia's international isolation is intensifying. The world cultural community demonstrates solidarity during the war in Ukraine and gradually refuses to cooperate with russia.
More than 70 world organisations have given up cultural cooperation with russia after a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Bulgaria will not negotiate a new gas deal with russia's Gazprom after it expires in late 2022. The country is considering alternative suppliers and is working on a future joint contract with the European Union to avoid shortages.
The third of the "big four" oil companies Baker Hughes stops investing in russia.
Australia has banned the sale of alumina and aluminium ore to russia.