Situation in Ukraine as of February 28: Analysis and Review of Open Sources
Igor Zhdanov, the Minister of Youth and sports in Ukraine (2014-2019), a public and political figure, Maidan commandant during the Revolution of Dignity, member of the Maidan Council, candidate of political sciences, ATO volunteer, analyst of the NGO "Open Policy Foundation"
1. The blitzkrieg of the Russian aggressor completely failed.
On the fifth day of the war, The enemy did not fulfill any of its strategic tasks: the capital was completely under control of the Armed forces of Ukraine, and in Kharkiv, Sumy, Chernigov, Kherson, and Mykolayiv, The occupiers received a harsh response. None of the attacked regional centers came under control of the occupiers.
According to the general staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, during the four days of the war Russia’s military aggression against Ukraine has cost them approximately 5,300 Russian soldiers. So far, the Russian army lost 29 aircrafts, 29 helicopters, 191 tanks, 816 armored combat vehicles, 74 guns, one anti-aircraft missile system BUK, 21 “hail”, and 2 ship/boats.
The Russian General stuff does not provide data on its losses.
2. The operational and tactical situation in Ukraine has not changed significantly compared to February 26th, the fate of the war will be decided in Kyiv.
The operational pause, which occurred on February 26, was used by both the enemy and our troops to rest, regroup and receive some reserves.
On February 27, the Russian aggressor tried to resume his strikes. However near Kyiv, in Bucha, his Chechen columns were defeated, in the North and near Kharkiv the enemy was repulsed and did not advance, only in the South the enemy achieved partial success, by threatening the environment of the Mariupol group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
One of the greatest concerns is the activity of the enemies Secret Subversive Group, especially in Kyiv. According to the “Times”, between 2000 and 4000 mercenaries arrived in Ukraine in January with various tasks. 400 of them ( Wagnerians) have the task to illuminate the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky and the top leadership of the state. They’re shooting list also includes the Prime Minister, The entire Cabinet of Ministers, the mayor of Kiev Vitaly Klitschko and his brother Volodymyr - a total of 23 people.
I would like to emphasize once again what I wrote in my previous article - The life of the legally elected military-political leadership of the state must be saved under any circumstances, as this will not allow Kremlin puppets to become the new leadership in Ukraine.
3. The tactical reserves of the Russian aggressor are almost nearly drained.
The occupying forces are weakening and there is evidence of it, the involvement of the Chechen Rosguard units in the war in Ukraine, and the Kremlin‘s frantic pressure on Lukashenko to involve Belarusian troops in hostilities.
On the contrary, The general staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine manage to draw of reserves to Kiev and significantly strengthen its defense by developing a dense multilevel system of defense of the capital city. During these days terrorists defense units were significantly strengthen, and two units of the Foreign Legion were created which were joined by foreigners that are ready to fight for Ukraine.
4. Russian occupation forces are demoralized.
Russian servicemen do not have any motivation for military actions, most of the rank and file are conscripts who are extremely poorly trained, they do not want to fight. For example, in the town of Koryukivka ( a place near Chernigov), local unarmed civilians stopped Russian tanks.
About 200 aggressors were imprisoned by Ukranians.
5. Ukrainian citizens and The armed forces of Ukraine demonstrate solidarity, patriotism and are ready to defend Ukraine even at the cost of their own lives.
Thus, The President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky posthumously awarded the title of “Hero of Ukraine” to 25 year old Vitality Skakun, Who blew up a bridge in the Kherson region at the cost of his own life. The legendary Ukrainian pilot, nicknamed the “Ghost of Kyiv”, has already shot down 10 Russian planes. For two days almost 100,000 citizens voluntarily joined the army, half of them- reservists of the Territorial Defense Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
According to a poll conducted by the sociological group “Rating”, 70% of the respondents believe that Ukraine will be able to repel the attack of the Russian occupiers. The level of faith in the Armed Forces of Ukraine has grown significantly over the past week. There is no predominance of pessimistic sentiments in any region. 91% of Ukrainians support the actions of the president of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky.
6. The Russian dictator Putin has taken another step towards ending World War III.
The President of Russia Vladimir Putin, has ordered the transfer of the “deterrence forces” to a special combat duty regimen, citing “aggressive statements” by the leaders of NATO against Russia. The basis of SNS(group of companies), equipped with intercontinental missile and aviation systems, are strategic nuclear forces.
7. Support of Ukraine by the democratic countries has increased significantly.
Here are just a few examples. The United States alone will provide $600 million in assistance to Ukraine, of which $350 million will be for military purposes, including defense, military education and training. The European Union will fund the purchase and delivery of weapons for Ukraine to help repel the Russian army; this will be the first such case for the EU.
On Saturday, the German federal government, which has been opposed to arms supplies to Ukraine for weeks, approved the decision to provide the Ukrainian Armed Forces with 1,000 anti-tank weapons and 500 Stinger anti-aircraft missiles. The Dutch government has decided to send 200 similar anti-aircraft missiles to Ukraine. Romanian officials have decided to provide the Ukrainian army with ammunition and military equipment.
At the same time, Russia's general disconnection from the SWIFT system will not take place; such a sanction will be applied only to certain banks that were blacklisted even earlier. However, the EU has closed its airspace to Russian companies and frozen part of Russia's Central Bank's assets.
As a result of the sanctions, the Russian ruble collapsed to the all-time low in the morning international trade, losing more than 30% of the value in the US dollar and the Euro.
8. The Ukrainian-Russian communications will begin in the evening of February 28.
The Ukrainian side is entering the negotiation process with good negotiating positions, which have been won by the blood and lives of Ukrainian military and civilian citizens.
At the same time, there is some skepticism about their effectiveness and results. Yes, the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky stated: “I will say frankly, as always: I do not really believe in the outcome of this meeting, but let them try. So that no citizen of Ukraine would have any doubt that I, as president, did not try to stop the war, when there was even a small, but still a chance".
The next 24 hours will be crucial to outline the future of the world. In my estimation, the crisis should be resolved within 5-7 days; the Russian aggressor will no longer have enough resources to wage war, and the massive losses of the Russian occupation forces will lead to more mass demonstrations against Putin's aggressive policy.
Glory to the citizens of Ukraine! Glory to the Armed Forces of Ukraine! Glory to Ukraine!