Inaction of authorities leads to critical situation with mobilization – experts
Ignoring the warnings of experts and the systemic inaction of the state led to the collapse of the management of mobilization processes in Ukraine, according to the results of the analysis presented by the research and analytical group InfoLight.UA at the Interfax-Ukraine press center on Thursday, January 6.
"The state had at least three critical moments when it could have changed the situation, but did not take advantage of any of them. In the fall of 2023, when it became clear that there would be no quick end to the war, there was a chance for an honest dialogue with society. In the spring of 2024, it was possible to correct the situation through high-quality reform. In September 2024, we warned about the transition to violent resistance - there was no reaction," said InfoLight.UA head Yuriy Honcharenko.
According to the study, the government has consistently ignored the formation of a systemic crisis: it allowed the image of mobilization as punishment to be created in 2022, did not counteract the formation of networks of "legal protection from mobilization," failed to implement the Reserve+ system, did not fulfill the promise of demobilization, and ignored the warning about the threat of violent resistance.
"Since September 2024, we have been warning about the danger of a transition from conditionally non-violent resistance to the use of weapons. Unfortunately, the forecasts have come true - the situation has gone from cold steel to the use of explosives and firearms. And this, it seems, is not the limit of escalation," Honcharenko emphasized.
According to the researchers, Russia has consistently implemented a strategy of undermining Ukraine's mobilization potential.
"First, a parallel reality was created through social networks, then resistance networks were formed, and now we are seeing open manifestations of violence. It is important to understand that these are not spontaneous events, but the result of the enemy's systematic work," explains Honcharenko.
Experts identified five key stages in the unfolding of the crisis. The first was spring 2022, when negative narratives began to form. The second was summer-fall 2022, characterized by the creation of "legal protection" networks and Viber groups. The third was 2023, when organized provocations against recruitment center workers appeared and the first key mistakes on the part of the state occurred. The fourth was 2024, which brought the collapse of the mobilization reform and a crisis of trust. The fifth stage began in 2025 with the transition to open violence.
"Our observations show that a significant portion of Ukrainian citizens have found themselves in opposition to their own state. Not recognizing this means provoking further violence and creating the risk of an uncontrolled riot," Honcharenko notes.
According to experts, the situation is aggravated by the lack of a systemic approach.
"In each region, there are organized networks of resistance to mobilization. Instead of looking for the causes of this phenomenon and working to eliminate them, the state has chosen the tactic of hushing up the problem," Honcharenko noted.
The critical moment was the failure of the 2024 mobilization reform.
"The Reserve+ application did not work as planned, electronic queues did not work, and people who tried to legally register were often detained right on the street. This finally undermined trust in the system," Honcharenko explained.
Experts note that now some Ukrainian citizens have found themselves in opposition to their own state, and the chaotization of processes has reached a dangerous level. Without urgent systemic changes, the situation threatens to get out of control.
"We need radical changes, a new social contract. We have developed a model of partial military service, which can be a response to this challenge," explained PhD in applied mathematics Oleksandr Ivanov.
"If we talk about the present, the problem of mobilization is complex - it is based on social injustice towards soldiers and veterans. Problems with receiving combat payments, transfer, registration of disability documents, numerous violations during the mobilization process - each of us knows such examples," noted chairman of NGO Veterans of Defense Oleksiy Ivashyn.
The InfoLight.UA research and analytical group was created in May 2022 as a volunteer initiative. Since October of the same year, it has received institutional support from the Hans Seidel Foundation in Ukraine. The group cooperates with the Security and Defense Forces of Ukraine and has received several awards. The work uses the most modern tools and methods, including artificial intelligence to track malicious narratives. Since November 2024, the team's experts have been members of the Ukrainian Security Club. The presented study was conducted with its organizational support.