Kremlin prepares fate of "Ukrainian Chechnya" for Donbas - expert
Director of the National Institute for Strategic Studies and Ukrainian presidential adviser Volodymyr Horbulin has said that the Kremlin has prepared the fate of "Ukrainian Chechnya" for Donbas, when Kyiv would have to "coax militants" with large subsidies or "a year of terror" against peaceful regions of Ukraine.
"It is clear what kind of fate Putin is preparing for the Ukrainian Donbas and Ukraine - he openly told about it in an interview to the German ORF television channel. This concerns the "Ukrainian Chechnya," where Kyiv should coax militants with huge grants, and Russia will really manage them," Horbulin wrote in his article "Volcanic Syndrome" published in the Dzerkalo Tyzhnia.Ukraine weekly on Saturday.
At the same time, he said that this scenario is "a deadlock for sure." and this is proved by the example of Russia itself, where "the Kremlin pays tribute" to Chechnya's leader Ramzan Kadyrov, where "a state is formed inside another state and where even "fearless" FSB is afraid of entering.
"Undoubtedly, Ukraine is not ready to discuss these scenarios, but Russia has them, and how many own scenarios do Ukraine have regarding this region and not only in relation to the occupied territories, but also controlled areas?" Horbulin said.
In his opinion, at the moment, the idea of introducing UN peacekeepers into the occupied areas of Donbas can be considered a strategy of Kyiv. But even in this issue, Ukraine will need "a lot of firmness, especially regarding the choice of who will become a group of peacekeepers," since, according to Horbulin, it is very important what the composition of the "blue helmets" that will enter the Donbas will be.
"All these topics require a very serious discussion, but they will be impossible if we cannot effectively resist the destructive strategies that Moscow applies to Ukraine and which have intensified due to the beginning of the election campaign," said the presidential adviser.
According to him, the position war in the east of Ukraine and misinformation campaigns are something to which the Ukrainians are already accustomed and ready to resist. "But the Kremlin raises rates and seems to be preparing a year of terror - against peaceful regions, against vulnerable target groups (including children), more deaths, more political murders, more chaos and anxiety - all in the end aimed at the current power, which, of course, is held accountable," Horbulin said.
He said that under this scenario, "constructive politicians will always be around," who will propose to "make peace" and "end a stupid war." "Everything is doing for them, for the sake of fear of Ukrainian citizens and uncertainty and to show that Russia can do whatever it wants in our territory and that it cannot be defeated," the expert said.
At the same time, he said that Russia can be defeated, and the main thing is not to be afraid. "But our success depends not only on this, but also on our cohesion, the availability of breakthrough priorities and clear strategies for achieving them," Horbulin said.