Investment expert Ash sees Ukraine's future after Davos as choice between bad and unstable peace or long war
There is no scenario in which Vladimir Putin will leave Ukraine alone, since he is not at all interested in a successful and independent Ukraine, and you should not count on US President Donald Trump, because he still does not understand this, says Timothy Ash, senior strategist at RBC Bluebay Asset Management.
"The future for Ukraine looks bleak at this point in time - a choice between a bad, and ultimately unsustainable peace, or an extended war," he wrote in a blog post following the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos.
Ash emphasized that Putin will never tire of trying to deceive Ukraine unless he is defeated or the cost of his malicious actions against Ukraine increases so much that it forces him to back down, while Trump has shown no understanding of Putin and no desire to hurt him.
"One overwhelming impression from those I met was that while there was great anticipation last year at the WEF that Trump could deliver a peace in Ukraine - he had leverage over Putin and the hope was that he could use his famed 'Art of the Deal' - this year the mood was downbeat," the expert noted.
He said the deal that Trump had promised “in 24 hours, 100 days, by Easter, then Christmas, and so on” proved unattainable, while Ukrainians continue to face brutal attacks on critical infrastructure that have damaged heating and water systems amid a harsh winter and limited air defense resources.
Regarding Zelenskyy’s speech at the World Economic Forum following his meeting with Trump, Ash described it as tough, diplomatic, and driven by frustration with weak Europeans and Trump, who, despite having the power to compel Putin to negotiate, held back.
Zelenskyy must remain diplomatic with Trump because Ukraine still desperately needs American ammunition to help defend its skies against ongoing Russian missile and drone attacks, the British expert said.
He also noted that there had been expectations that Zelenskyy and Trump would sign a major $800 billion peacetime investment program this week, but attention to Greenland and doubts over whether the EU would approve Ukraine’s accelerated accession likely stalled the process.
Regarding the security agreement, which has also not yet been signed despite being coordinated with the U.S., the expert suggests it has not met Ukraine’s expectations. The U.S. likely committed only to providing limited intelligence and monitoring any ceasefire, with very restricted military support both for Ukraine and for a potential local volunteer coalition. Nevertheless, Ukraine cannot afford to reject the agreement at this time without jeopardizing ammunition supplies during the ongoing war.
He also expressed concern that a bad deal could destabilize Ukraine, raising the risk of social and political unrest.
Having concrete security guarantees is also critical to the success of this plan for Ukraine's post-war reconstruction, he added.