Surplus of current account of balance of payments in 2020 will be 2.9% of GDP - NBU
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has downgraded the forecast for the consolidated account of the balance of payments in 2020 from a surplus of 4.4% of GDP (in the July forecast) to a surplus of 2.9% of GDP, the regulator's website said.
"Although the current account will record a surplus of about 3% of GDP in 2020, it will return to deficit in the coming years," the statement said.
"The coronavirus pandemic has markedly decreased energy prices, while also reducing Ukrainians' demand for imported goods and travelling abroad, and businesses' demand for investment products. Meanwhile, external conditions were favorable for Ukraine's main exports. Consequently, over the entire year, exports will fall much less pronouncedly than imports. As a result, the current account will post a surplus," the NBU said on its website.
According to the regulator's forecasts, in 2021 the deficit of the current account of the balance of payments will be 2.3% (in the July forecast 2.8%), in 2022 it will expand to 5.1% (4.5%).
"The economic recovery is triggering a widening of both consumer and investment imports, a trend which was already apparent in Q3, 2020. The rebounding global economy is also pushing energy prices up. In addition, Ukraine's income from gas transit will fall both this and next year," the bank said.