NBU sees risk of labor migration increase from Ukraine in coming years

The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has pointed out a risk of increasing migration processes in coming years, including labor migration from Ukraine, according to an inflation report for January posted on the central bank's website.

"Migration processes can intensify in the coming years, particularly to Poland. The additional risk of increasing labor migration from Ukraine is the increase in the number of students receiving education abroad," the NBU said.

At the same time, the NBU said that in recent years the flows of Ukrainian migrants to Poland have significantly increased against the backdrop of the growth of its economy, simplification of the employment rules, the provision of a number of advantages and opportunities to Ukrainians with a Polish Card, as well as the simplification of border crossing thanks to the introduction of a visa-free regime with EU countries.

The National Bank also cited Eurostat data, according to which 87% of the residence permits that Ukrainians received in the EU in 2016 were provided by Poland. In addition, according to the Ministry of Family, Labor and Social Policy of Poland, 95% of all work permits issued by the country in the first half of 2017, were given to Ukrainian citizens.

In addition to Poland, Ukrainians often go to work to Russia, Italy and the Czech Republic. At the same time, migration to Russia has recently declined, including due to the complication of interstate relations.

Among the domestic factors that increase labor migration is military aggression, a macroeconomic crisis, deterioration in the well-being of households and a high level of youth unemployment.