Milk production in Ukraine decreases by 3.5% in Jan-Feb 2025
In Ukraine, 900,000 tonnes of milk were produced in January-February 2025, which is 3.5% less than in the corresponding period of 2024, the Infagro industry information and analytical agency said.
Agricultural enterprises in February produced 1.7% more milk than in February 2024. Taking into account the fact that 2024 was a leap year, the annual growth in February was 5.3%, analysts said.
Experts said as of March 1, there were 1.15 million cows in Ukraine, which is 8.4% less than on the same date last year. Official figures for the number of cows in agricultural enterprises showed negative annual dynamics with a slight decrease of 0.1% by March 1, 2024.
"In April, we can expect the milk market to stabilize due to the growth of overall demand, which means that the pace of decline in purchase prices will slow down, price revisions will become spot-on," Infagro said.
At the same time, in March 2025, the purchase price of raw milk in Ukraine continued to decline, prices returned to approximately the level of September 2024. The March price correction was more difficult than in February. Competition for raw materials has resumed due to the projected growth in the volume of promotional sales of dairy products on the domestic market and the activation of European demand for Ukrainian goods, primarily for butter.
Analysts drew attention to the fact that the supply of raw materials on the domestic market continues to grow. New production facilities and new projects in the dairy industry are being launched. Therefore, the pressure on the price of milk is still occurring.
The average cost of raw materials in March 2025 in agricultural enterprises was UAH 16.6 per kilogram excluding VAT, which is 5.1% lower than in February, but 15% higher than in March 2024; the cost of raw materials from the population is UAH 10.5 per kilogram excluding VAT, which is 4.1% lower than in February, but 14% higher than in March 2024.
The range of milk procurement prices at the end of March was mainly from agricultural enterprises some UAH 15.8 to UAH 17.0 per kilogram excluding VAT, the population UAH 9.5 to UAH 11.0 per kilogram excluding VAT.
"The estimated milk production margin in March continued to actively decline. The average estimated operating margin in March was 15%, which is seven points less than in February and 29 points lower than in March 2024," Infagro said.