Victoria Gryb, Member of Ukrainian Parliament, Head of the Verkhovna Rada subcommittee on energy security

 

The full-scale invasion by Russia into Ukraine has exacerbated one of the most dramatic challenges to Ukrainian statehood—the decline in birth rates and life expectancy. In 1991, Ukraine gained independence with a population of 51.7 million people. However, according to the most optimistic estimates, by 2030, only 35 million people will be living in Ukraine. Other forecasts predict an even lower figure of 28-29 million people.

Ukraine's population is shrinking at one of the fastest rates in the world. In November 2021, the United Nations drew attention to this issue in a report on the demographic situation. At that time, experts estimated that by 2050, the number of Ukrainians might decrease to 35 million. Scientists at the National Academy of Sciences predict that the population of Ukraine will decrease to 22 million in 70 years (by the end of the 21st century). The main reasons for this decline are a low birth rate, high mortality rate, and a constant increase in external migration levels.

High rates of population decline were observed in the 1990s. Even worse dynamics took place in 2009. In 2014, 45 million people lived in Ukraine, in 2015 - 42 million. The figures are given without taking into account the population of Crimea and Donbas. By 2019, we lost another million people. At the beginning of 2022, 40 million 900 thousand people lived in Ukraine. It should be emphasized that the population census has not been conducted since 2001. According to the new report of the UN Population Fund, as of 2023, 36.7 million people live in Ukraine.

It’s difficult to calculate exactly how many people live in Ukraine now. The Institute of Demography and Social Research of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine assumes that as of January 1, 2023, the population is between 28 and 34 million people. More accurate calculations are not possible.

According to the UN, up to 8 million refugees have lived outside of Ukraine since the beginning of the full-scale invasion. How many of them will return? Depends on how quickly the war ends. Will Ukraine create suitable conditions for these people? Jobs, accommodation and infrastructure.

Who will rebuild Ukraine?

For the complete restoration of the nation, ten women must give birth to at least 22-23 children. The problem is that even in 2021, 10 women gave birth to only 11 children. It is obvious that Ukraine is facing a catastrophic drop in the birth rate.

But every war has its beginning and end. At the same time, we should not expect a mass return of women from abroad. We should not expect a post-war birth rate boom. The reason is the lack of necessary socio-economic conditions.

An acute demographic crisis engulfed Ukraine long before the Russian invasion. The war accelerated it, taking hundreds of thousands of lives. Ukrainian mothers with children, saving their lives, went abroad. Many of them do not intend to return. 

The problem is that demographics and economics go hand in hand. Investors like stability, positive demographic data. They like concrete numbers when planning business. Therefore, the demographic situation is one of the main markers for making a decision on investing in the country.

For example, a good friend of mine from the city of Rivne has been looking for a diesel engine repair specialist for three weeks. Everyone with whom he cooperated before the invasion went abroad.

The return of millions of specialists is the basis of future recovery. The state should think through special programs, conditions and motivation for the return of these people.

The total amount of economic losses related to human losses will amount to UAH 348.5 billion, or 6.3% of GDP. Lack of human resources will affect the state of the economy.

One of the options to return people to Ukraine can be strong financial support for families and an increase in payments upon the birth of a child. An additional tool is the involvement of labor migrants. The growth of the economy in the future can partially improve the situation.

The result depends not so much on time as on the right decisions. We must work on programs to increase the birth rate, ensure effective legislative work on reproductive health issues, guarantee the support of international organizations, and restore the work of industry and the economy. There is no other way to a full-fledged revival.