Military and Political Situation in Ukraine. Morning of March 16th, 2022
Ihor Zhdanov, Information Defence
Informational Defence of Ukraine provides a daily review of the military-political situation in Ukraine, morning of March 16th, based on an analysis of open sources.
1. The russian occupiers have not achieved success in any of the operational areas and have sustained heavy losses as a result of counterattacks by the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
According to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the position and nature of the actions of defence forces have not changed significantly over the last 24 hours.
The Armed Forces of Ukraine managed to inflict devastating blows on groups of the occupying troops in the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine and, in some areas, to counterattack.
A separate Special Forces unit, Azov, reported on the destruction of a russian general-major and a large number of enemy equipment.
The russian occupiers tried to storm Kharkiv from Piatyhatky. The Armed Forces of Ukraine imposed significant losses on the enemy. The enemy was pushed out of its previous positions.
The russians have focused on gaining a foothold in the occupied frontiers and continue to shell infrastructure and densely populated areas.
The losses of the aggressor are growing. The total combat losses of the enemy from 24.02 to 16.03 were approximately these: combatants - about 13,800 people, tanks - 430 units, armored combat vehicles - 1375 units, artillery systems - 190 units, MLRS - 70 units, air defence - 43 units, aircraft - 84 units, helicopters - 108 units, motor vehicles - 819 units, ships / boats - 3 units, fuel tanks - 60, UAVs operational and tactical level - 11, special equipment - 10.
The Security Service of Ukraine reports that during the day of March 14th, it detained more than 60 collaborators in various regions of Ukraine and identified 20 sabotage and reconnaissance groups. The secret services also document the crimes of the russian invaders in the temporarily occupied territories.
According to Western allied intelligence, the russian invaders have lost a significant part of their combat potential and are now forced to attract reserves. According to the Pentagon, as of March 15th, the russian occupation forces had lost up to 40% of the units that russia had recruited for the war against Ukraine.
Since the beginning of the invasion, russian troops have fired more than 950 missiles at targets in Ukraine. But the United States estimates that russian troops have made limited or no progress in achieving success at their ultimate goals.
The UK Ministry believes that russia has faced “prolonged combatant losses” in Ukraine and is redeploying reinforcements from across the country, even from “its Eastern Military District, Pacific Ocean Fleet and Armenia” and is increasingly using other sources of militants such as “private military companies, Syrians and other mercenaries.”
“Russia is likely to try to use these forces to hold the occupied territory and release its combat power to resume stalled offensive operations,” the British intelligence agency stated.
2. The russian occupiers continue to violate international humanitarian law by killing civilians in Ukraine.
As a result of russia's aggression against Ukraine, millions of Ukrainians have been forced to go abroad. According to the International Organization for Migration, the number of Ukrainians who have left the country since the start of the full-scale war reached 3 million as of March 15th. Of these 3 million, about 1.4 million are children and about 157,000 are citizens of other countries living in Ukraine.
At least 5 children die every day in Ukraine under fire from the russian occupiers. According to the Office of the Prosecutor General, as of the morning of March 16th, 2022, as a result of russia's armed aggression in Ukraine, 103 children have been killed, and more than 100 children injured.
As a result of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in less than three weeks, at least 28 buildings of spiritual significance in at least six regions of Ukraine were damaged.
Among the affected churches are these ones: Sviatohorsk Lavra in the Donetsk region, Second Mitrofanivskyi Church in Lysychansk, St. Catherine's Church in Schastia of the Luhansk region, St. Joasaph Bilhorodskyi Church in Kyiv, St. George's Church in Nizhyn, the Holy Tamara Church in Kharkiv, and the synagogue of the united Jewish community of Ukraine in Kharkiv.
Due to the hostilities, 17 combatants have been killed by the SSES (the State Services for Emergency Situations), 32 injured and one held captive, who was captured on March 11th in Hostomel during the evacuation of civilians.
Defiantly ignoring the norms of international humanitarian law, the russian invaders are launching missile and bomb strikes on critical infrastructure of Ukraine, civilians, residential areas, schools, and kindergartens.
In the Mykolaiiv area, over the last few days, 80 people, including two children, are wounded; some people are dead after an air strike on a school in the area that occured on March 13th. As a result of the attack, seven people were lost, three had injuries.
Last night, the russian occupiers fired on houses, markets, a hospital and a kindergarten in Kharkiv and the region, killing a 16-year-old boy during the shelling of Chuhuiiv.
At night, the enemy attacked the airport in Dnipro, destroying the runway and damaging the terminal.
As a result of airstrikes on the town of Malyn and the village of Yuriivka on the afternoon of March 15th, one person was killed and two were injured.
According to satellite images, military experts noticed the approach of three groups of warships of the russian fleet in the direction of Odesa, and in the evening of March 15th, Ukrainian authorities confirmed shelling and 2 wounded.
On March 15th, at approximately 1:30 p.m., russian servicemen fired artillery shells at the village of Zolochiv, in the Kharkiv region. Two women and three men were killed and three others were injured in the shelling.
3. The war crimes of the russian aggressors are becoming systemic, and they are taking hostage peaceful Ukrainian citizens.
The abductions of civilians, and looting of the local people have become widespread. The Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine Denys Monastyrskyi stated, “teams of leaders open fire on civilians, and there are several facts at the moment. The order (from the invaders) for looting and theft from private houses, shops, ATMs and banks located in the occupied territories is sounding absolutely clear.”
The russian military kidnapped activist Vitalii Shevchenko at a rally in Berdiansk.
The russian military has taken hostage doctors and patients of the Regional Hospital for Intensive Care in Mariupol.
The russians are holding hostage Oleksandr Musienko, the village head of Chulakivka, the Kherson region.
4. The evacuation of the Ukrainian people through humanitarian corridors continues, despite provocations by the russian invaders.
As of March 15th, 9 humanitarian corridors have been agreed in Ukraine for evacuation from settlements attacked by russian troops in various regions.
According to the head of the President's Office Kyrylo Tymoshenko , on March 15th, almost 20,000 people left Mariupol via the humanitarian corridor. Of the 4,000 cars that left the city, 570 have already arrived in Zaporizhzhia.
The situation in Izium, the Kharkiv region, is not better than in Mariupol, and the city needs humanitarian corridors immediately. As Deputy Mayor Volodymyr Matsokin stated, “The city of Izium has been under siege for two weeks. Without water, without light, heat, food, medicine, and communication.”
5. The Ukrainian government, business and citizens are demonstrating solidarity and consolidating their efforts to confront the enemy.
Most Ukrainians believe that the country is currently moving in the right direction. 75% of surveyed citizens of Ukraine support the state policy, according to a poll conducted by the group "Rating" from March 12-13th, 2022. Only 15% of Ukrainians believe that the country has chosen the wrong way, and 10% have not decided what to answer yet
Due to the war with russia, the self-esteem of the Ukrainian people is growing. Now, compared to European countries, 34% of respondents see Ukraine as a leader, and 42% believe that our country is in a middle position in the list of European powers. Also, 63% of respondents see Ukraine as a leader among the countries of the former Soviet Union.
Expenditures on the Ukrainian army continue to rise. The Verkhovna Rada (The Parliament of Ukraine) has increased budget revenues and expenditures by UAH 67.6 billion, which will be used for the purchase, modernization and repair of weapons and military equipment.
Yesterday economic laws drastically changed the economic situation in Ukraine for the better - significantly reducing taxes and simplifying business conditions. The Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine voted for a law providing for a simplified system of taxation for big business, the abolition of excise taxes on fuel and VAT, the exemption of private individuals from paying the single social contribution, etc. This preferential tax regime will last until the end of martial law.
Taxes on fuel. From now, the excise tax on gasoline, heavy distillates, and liquefied gas is 0 euros per 1,000 liters. The rate of value added tax for the import of fuel was reduced from 20% to 7%.
“Simplified” for everyone. Big business will be able to take advantage of the simplified taxation system and pay a single tax. The annual income limit was raised from UAH 10 million to UAH 10 billion, and restrictions on the number of employees were lifted. The tax will be 2% of turnover regardless of the type of activity.
Taxes of sole proprietors. “Simplified” companies of the second and third groups are allowed not to pay SSP (Single Social Payment) for mobilized workers. Such amounts will be paid from the state budget. From March 1st until the end of martial law, private individuals of groups 1-3 do not pay SDRs.
Also, for the period of martial law, private individuals do not pay SSP if they do not receive income. For the first three months of martial law, fines and penalties for SSP shall not be applied and no inspections shall be carried out.
Tax holidays and mortgages. Liability for late payment on consumer loans is removed. For another month after the war, it is forbidden to foreclose on property and evict residents.
Actual checks for cash. Actual checks may be carried out in relation to the refusal to pay by card. For violation - a fine of UAH 8,500. All factual inspections are resumed, including those prohibited during quarantine. Violations of the RRO law will not be punished until the end of martial law.
Charity. Charitable assistance provided to combatants and persons living on the territory of hostilities is not subject to personal income tax. Also, all non-targeted charitable assistance to persons affected by the armed aggression of the russian federation is not subject to personal income tax.
According to UNDP, up to 90% of Ukrainians will face poverty and extreme economic vulnerability if the war drags on into next year.
The State Emergency Service urges Ukrainians not to report the addresses of buildings damaged by russian military shelling, and not to ask about house numbers on social media, so as not to help the enemy navigate, as 80% of enemy information comes from open sources.
Ukrzaliznytsia begins the nationalization of russian cars in Ukraineю As the chairman of the board of UZ Oleksandr Kamyshyn explained, “this became possible after the President signed the law aboutbout the basic principles of forcible seizure of property rights in Ukraine”.
After his actionable remarks in support of the invasion, the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine deprived Illia Kiva of his mandate as a Member of Parliament. This decision was voted by the deputies at the Verkhovna Rada on March 15th, and 335 deputies voted for it.
6. International support and assistance to Ukraine.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyi believes that Ukraine will not become a member of the North Atlantic Alliance despite NATO’s “open door” policy. He stressed, “our people begin to understand and rely on themselves and our partners who help us.”
At the same time, the Secretary General of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, Jens Stoltenberg, states that the Alliance is stepping up the provision of modern air defence systems to Ukraine.
The Minister for Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Dmytro Kuleba expressed surprise at the official position of Budapest on the de facto refusal to help Kyiv in the face of russian aggression, recalling that Hungary was once in a similar situation.
US President Joe Biden has signed a two-party funding law that provides $ 13.6 billion in military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine. With this assistance, $1 billion is provided for anti-tank and air defence systems, including Javelin and Stinger.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyi met with the Prime Minister and Deputy Prime Ministers of Poland, as well as the Prime-Ministers of the Czech Republic and Slovenia in Kyiv. In a statement to the press made by the Ukrainian head of state, he thanked them for “not being afraid of anything.”
Following the meeting, Deputy Prime Minister of Poland and Chairman of the ruling Law and Justice Party Jarosław Kaczyński have said that the Polish leadership proposes to send a peacekeeping mission to Ukraine.
The Prime Minister of Poland Tadeusz Morawiecki believes that “the EU should give you a candidate status as soon as possible; and in addition, you should get defensive weapons.”
Despite the sanctions, EU countries continue to purchase russian energy resources, sponsoring the aggressor state. Starting from February 24th, the European Union countries spent 12.6 billion euros on russian coal, oil and gas. In particular, as of March 15th, the EU spent 6.2 billion euros on oil, 5.8 billion euros on gas and 590 million euros on coal.
At the same time, ordinary people support Ukrainians. Over 100,000 people and organizations in the UK have expressed interest in providing homes for Ukrainians fleeing the war with russia.
Editor of the First Russian TV Channel, Marina Ovsyanikova, protested live against russian aggression and was fined 30,000 rubles by the Ostankino District Court of Moscow. The court found her guilty of organizing a public rally without permission from the local authorities.
She was charged over her video, in which she called for protests against the war, and not for her speech with a live poster. For issuing the poster, criminal proceedings were instituted against Marina Ovsyannikova under the article “public dissemination of false information about the russian military.”
7. Provocations and fakes of russian aggressors.
The enemy is planning mass deforestation of Ukrainian forests, according to a letter from russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, “About the possibility of deforestation in defense lands,” addressed personally to russian president putin, a copy of which the Ukrainian intelligence agency has.
The self-proclaimed president of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, has said that the country has been hit by a Point-U missile, but says he is “not going to” take part in the war and is “not called there.” He did not specify where the missile hit in Belarus, or who sent it, but said that “they and the Russians” intercepted and destroyed it over Prypiat two days ago. And were silent, because “they understood what was happening there.”
According to the analysis of the founder of Conflict Intelligence Team (SIT) Ruslan Leviiev, a cluster munitions attack in the center of Donetsk on March 14th from the complex “Point-U” was carried out from the territory controlled by russia.
His analysis proves that “the rocket arrived, apparently, from the southeast. And in the southeast, the entire range of 120 km - a radius of reach of the complex "Point-U" - is an area controlled by the russian forces and separatist forces. There are no Ukrainian forces there.”
SIT journalists have been investigating various military conflicts since 2014, and have always noticed the regularity of the ‘tail’ of a falling missile when using Point-U missiles, indicating the direction of a launch.
A new type of information threat appeared on the information front during the war in Ukraine.
On social networks, users of bots have been noticed, as well as "live" accounts that send messages in chats with the same content. Example: "What do you have in Frankivsk? Although I am far from home, but my heart aches with every anxiety”.
Their goal is to find out the extent of the bombing in a particular locality. Answers to such questions can lead to hostile attacks and strikes.
8. Sanctions against russia are intensifying, and more and more companies are leaving the russian trade market.
EU countries have agreed on a fourth package of sanctions against russia, which includes trade restrictions on iron and steel, as well as a ban on imports of russian luxury goods.
The EU bans any transactions with a number of state-owned companies in russia. In addition, new investments in russia's energy sector are banned, and comprehensive export restrictions on equipment, technology and services for the energy sector have been introduced.
From now on, the EU is not allowed to provide credit rating services to any russian individuals or legal entities.
The fourth package of sanctions contains a broader list of companies associated with the russian defence industry. They are a subject to stricter export restrictions on dual-use goods.
The EU is also imposing trade restrictions on iron, steel, and luxury products. The new sanctions will affect even more oligarchs and kremlin propagandists. As previously mentioned, the list will include Roman Abramovich and 14 other people.
The sanctions will target key companies in the aviation, military and dual-use sectors, shipbuilding, and engineering.
The Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe, despite Moscow’s attempts to avoid punishment, decided to expel russia, and also called for providing Ukraine with airspace protection.
The decision was made unanimously - 216 people voted in favor, 3 abstained.
The foreign debt of russia and its companies reaches $ 150 billion, and a default may be declared on Wednesday.
On Wednesday, March 16th, the country is due to make a coupon payment in dollars. Depending on what russia does with this issue, Bloomberg economists believe that the following three scenarios could be implemented:
1. russia will pay off the debt in dollars. This will mean that the default is postponed until at least April 4th, when it is time to pay the next coupons.
2. russia pays in roubles. Some contracts do allow such a payment - but not all. In particular, the payment on Wednesday will be considered made only in foreign currency, otherwise it will mean a default.
3. russia does not pay at all. Non-payment on Wednesday will launch a 30-day grace period, after which there will be a default that will cut off russia, which has already been cut off from financial markets, until the end of lawsuits and payments.
VK Company Limited, which owns Russian Vkontakte social network, has allowed a technical default on $400 million in bonds maturing in 2025.
British tobacco company Imperial Tobacco transfered its assets and operations in the Russian market to a local legal entity. In fact, according to Information Defence experts, this is an attempt to circumvent Western sanctions and stay in the russian trade market.
The largest oil company Equinor is suspending trade in russian oil and petroleum products.
Allianz, the largest German insurance company and one of the world largest companies, will stop insuring new businesses and will not make new investments in russia.
Korean Air has suspended all passenger and freight traffic to Moscow. One of the world leading tire manufacturers, the French Michelin Group, has suspended industrial activities in russia and exports to russia.
The European Union Aviation Safety Agency has imposed restrictions on licenses for carriers related to russia.