Welcome to the Era of Quantum Geopolitics

16:47, 23.01.2026 3 min read

Oleksandr Dombrovsky, Chair of the Board, Global 100% REnewable

It feels as though the world has abruptly shifted from the familiar “Newtonian legal mechanics” of international law into a quantum state of entangled uncertainty.

Remember how science discovered that the visible Universe is only 4% of reality? The remaining 96% is dark matter and dark energy—about which we still know very little.

The same has happened to global politics.

International law, the UN, public treaties, and diplomacy are that same 4%: visible, familiar, and formally understood.

But the real global processes have entered a state of indeterminate fluctuations and begun to operate by the laws of quantum physics—where common sense is no longer the decisive factor.

Here are just a few examples of this new reality.

Your ally can simultaneously work for your enemy—and that is now the norm.

Countries are no longer neatly divided into “friends” and “enemies.” They exist in a state of superposition: shaking hands with some while selling chips to others; supporting the victim state while buying energy resources from the aggressor state—effectively financing the war itself.

The true state is revealed only at the moment of crisis.

Guarantees no longer exist—only probabilities. Any treaty today is a lottery ticket, not an insurance policy.

NATO’s Article 5 or international agreements are no longer constants (100%). They are “wave functions”—probability distributions. Help may come—or it may not.

If you do not shape the agenda yourself, you automatically become an object in someone else’s game.

We live only in 4% of visible, “official” politics. The remaining 96% is chaos: shadow fleets, private military companies, and cyberwarfare.

Local conflicts no longer exist.

A single shot in the Red Sea instantly shifts prices in Europe.

The more precisely we try to measure one characteristic of a geopolitical actor (for example, their public stance on the war), the less precisely we understand another—their real economic interests and shadow deals.

It is impossible to know, with certainty, both the intentions and the actual actions of hybrid actors at the same time.

An event that seemed impossible under the laws of “classical diplomacy” (due to a lack of “energy” or political will) suddenly happens.

The aggressor tunnels through sanctions barriers; a decision blocked for years is adopted overnight. Walls are no longer obstacles if a player knows how to work with quantum probabilities.

The world no longer lives by the old rules we were accustomed to. Classical stability is a thing of the past.

We have entered a phase of quantum political uncertainty, dark energy, and rising entropy.

An era has begun in which victory goes not to the one with the greatest mass of resources, but to the one who learns fastest to manage chaos and dark entropy—and who shapes reality as an active Observer.

Survival will go not to the biggest in terms of resources, but to the quickest in terms of intellect—the one who learns to surf the waves of chaos instead of building dams out of old papers.

The winner will be the one who:

1. Accepts chaos as the norm, not as a temporary anomaly.
2. Abandons long planning horizons in favor of scenario modeling and rapid response.
3. Becomes an active Observer—one who does not wait for help, but sets the agenda and forces others to react.