Ukraine in 2013/2014 MY could export 27-29 m t of grain, says UAC

Kyiv, July 9 (Interfax-Ukraine) - Ukraine in the 2013/2014 marketing year (MY, July - June) could export 27-29 million tonnes of grain, the Ukrainian Agrarian Confederation (UAC) forecasts.

"The export potential is 27-29 million tonnes, but it is unknown how it will be realized depending on the invigoration of the global demand for grain and solving the problems with grain wagons in Ukraine," UAC Director General Serhiy Stoyanov said at a press conference at Interfax -Ukraine on Tuesday.

According to him, there is the risk that due to the decline in the world grain prices on the background of forecasts of an increase in grain production in the world by about 12% Ukrainian farmers will suffer losses.

According to the UAC, as of early July the domestic prices of the new harvest grain are lower compared the same period of 2012. In particular, at Ukrainian ports the average cost of the second and third grade wheat is UAH 1,750-1,800 per tonne, that of feed wheat – UAH 1,600 per tonne, barley – UAH 1,750 per tonne, corn (forward deliveries) – UAH 1,420-1,450 per tonne.

"The reduction in the price of the 2013 yield, given the fall in prices compared to the previous year, could amount to UAH 15 million," Stoyanov said.

He added that farmers' production costs annually grow by 10-15%.

The expert believes that under the current circumstances it is necessary to "remove excess" wheat in the amount of about one million tonnes from the grain market, proposing farmers the price higher by at least UAH 100 per tonne.