Geolocated footage published on February 15 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced to the southern outskirts of the Avdiyivka Coke Plant in northwestern Avdiyivka, according to the analytical review of the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) for February 15.

“Russian forces are conducting a tactical turning movement through Avdiyivka likely to create conditions that would force Ukrainian troops to withdraw from their positions in the settlement,” a report posted on the official website on Friday reads. At the same time, as the ISW analysts note “Ukrainian forces … continue to prevent Russian forces from making gains that are more significant than the current incremental Russian advances.”

As the ISW reports “geolocated footage published on February 15 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced to the southern outskirts of the Avdiyivka Coke Plant in northwestern Avdiyivka. Additional geolocated footage published on February 15 indicates that Russian forces captured a Ukrainian fortified position south of Avdiyivka that has long been a Russian sub-tactical objective.”

In addition, recently geolocated Russian advances indicate that Russian forces have cut the last road in Avdiyivka connecting southern and northern Avdiyivka. “But Ukrainian Tavriysk Group of Forces Spokesperson Dmytro Lykhoviy stated that Ukrainian forces are currently using prepared secondary ground lines of communication (GLOCs) to supply Ukrainian forces in southern and eastern Avdiyivka,” the Institute notes.

ISW said that Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces made further advances west of Avdiyivka in an effort to cut dirt roads that Ukrainian forces are using to supply positions in Avdiyivka from Lastochkyne and Pivnichne (both west of Avdiyivka), although ISW has not yet observed any confirmation of these claimed Russian advances. Experts admit that “Russian forces may be able to complete the envelopment of some Ukrainian forces if the Ukrainian forces do not withdraw or conduct successful counterattacks.”

At the same time, ISW analysts believe that the Russian offensive attempt to capture Avdiyivka (as it was in Bakhmut) highlights the inability of the Russian military to conduct a successful operational coverage or encirclement in Ukraine.

“The repeated Russian inability to conduct successful operational-level envelopments or encirclements suggests that the Russian military will likely continue to advance through gradual minor tactical advances instead of through these wider maneuvers that could lead to more rapid advances or the destruction of large groups of Ukrainian forces,” the ISW experts said.

It is also noted that “the potential Russian capture of Avdiyivka would not be operationally significant and would likely only offer the Kremlin immediate informational and political victories.”