NATO concluded contracts on January 23 for the purchase of over 200,000 artillery shells, likely either to allow NATO to send additional aid to Ukraine or to replenish NATO stockpiles, a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) for Tuesday reads.

“NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg and General Manager of the NATO Support and Procurement Agency Stacy Cummings signed contracts, reportedly with French company Nexter and German company Junghans Defense, on January 23 for the purchase of about 220,000 155mm artillery shells worth $1.2 billion … It is unclear if the contracts are meant to allow NATO to send additional ammunition to Ukraine or to fill NATO’s own ammunition stockpiles,” the report reads.

The ISW noted importance of the replenishment of NATO stockpiles as NATO rearmament is necessary to deter - and if necessary defeat - any future Russian attack on NATO’s eastern flank, given that Kremlin officials have increasingly threatened NATO member states, and Kremlin-affiliated actors appear to be attempting to sow instability and set information conditions for possible future aggressive Russian actions against NATO members and other post-Soviet states.

It is also stressed that Western states reiterated their support for Ukraine and their commitment to the development of Ukraine’s defense industrial base (DIB) at the 18th Ukraine Defense Contact Group at Ramstein Air Base in Germany on January 23.

It is reported that Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Kreminna, Avdiyivka, and Donetsk City amid continued positional engagements along the entire line of contact on January 23.

At the same time the ISW notes that there are currently no indications that the Russian military command has materially improved on any of these identified issues at the operational level necessary to break through a positional front in one or more areas of the theater. “Russian forces have recently proven themselves capable of making marginal tactical advances during intensified offensive efforts even with these systemic issues, however, particularly near Kupyansk in Kharkiv region and Avdiyivka in Donetsk region,” the analysts note.

They also say that the Kremlin may intend to use the 2024 Russian presidential election as a referendum on Russia’s war in Ukraine.