Western provision of air defense systems and missiles to Ukraine remains crucial for Ukraine as Russian forces will likely attempt to adapt to Ukrainian air defense capabilities to learn how to bypass it and inflict maximum destruction and casualties, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

The report says that Ukrainian forces notably shot down more Shahed drones and Kinzhal missiles on January 1-2 than on December 29. The analysts suggest that Ukrainian forces may have adapted to the type of strike package Russian forces employed on December 29, likely after months of experimentation and testing Ukrainian air defenses using various weapons systems, strike routes, and air defense mitigation tactics.

The ISW notes that Russian strikes on Ukraine are part of an ongoing tactical and technological offense-defense race wherein both sides are constantly experimenting and adapting to the other, particularly in the realm of long-range strikes and air defense.

“Western aid to Ukraine remains crucial as Russian forces will likely continue to experiment and innovate new ways to penetrate Ukrainian air defenses,” the analysts note.

In the report they also agreed with the information of analysts published in the British edition of the Telegraph. According to them, Ukraine will probably have to ration its air defense missiles in the face of a reduction in Western aid. It will also be necessary to strengthen the protection of critical targets by redeploying air defense systems from more vulnerable frontline areas.