16:48 25.04.2023

Putin seeks to internationalize war in Ukraine – experts

5 min read

Russian President Vladimir Putin seeks to internationalize the war in Ukraine, the world should set an example of how dictators should be held accountable for owning and threatening nuclear weapons, military expert and Head of the Center for Military and Legal Studies Oleksandr Musiyenko believes.

"I would not neglect the threats that exist. In the future, all that matters are Putin is trying to internationalize the war. No matter how much NATO states try to avoid, this clash with Russia is getting closer, whether someone likes it or not. Russia is striving for this. Putin benefits from a conflict on the territory of Belarus, to expose it to a blow, and to say: 'It was not us, it was Lukashenko.' And then: 'Let's sit down to discuss, this is my ultimatum.' This is Putin's stance," Musiyenko said during a roundtable discussion "Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus as threat to European security" on Tuesday.

According to him, the end of the war means not reaching the borders of 1991, since this is "only a tool: what needs to be done according to the norms of international law."

"We need to get out of this war with completely different decisions. First, about changes in Russia, about the responsibility of the aggressor, its disintegration, and the deprivation of Russia of its nuclear arsenal. This is a strategic goal that must be achieved," the expert said.

Musiyenko said the world should set an example of how dictators should be held accountable for the possession and threat of nuclear weapons.

But at the first stage, as the expert said, the support of Ukraine by allies is important.

"NATO air shield should be on the territory of Ukraine, and air defense systems should be. Poland, and the Baltic countries, and Ukraine should actually be in a single air defense system," he said.

The expert said the West should be ready for preventive actions. He also called "an absolutely natural thing" proposals of the President of Poland to place nuclear weapons on the territory of Poland, and "it must be carried out."

"He is absolutely right, because the border of the conflict and the potential use of these weapons is shifting," Musiyenko said.

"The second front. This is the question that is crystallizing today. The fact that Putin, by his aggressive actions, provokes the opening of this front on the territory of Belarus – these are the things that we are approaching. But the parameters of this second front are important in the framework of ensuring the unity of the Alliance," Musiyenko said.

In turn, Director of the Institute of World Policy Yevhen Mahda believes that the idea of deploying tactical nuclear weapons on the territory of Belarus is "home-made by the Kremlin," and it received the "green light" on February 27, 2022.

"Then in Belarus there was a so-called. referendum on changes to the Constitution, where the country abandoned its non-nuclear status," he said.

According to Mahda, by declaring his intention to place tactical nuclear weapons on the territory of Belarus at the end of March 2023, Putin actually created a hybrid allied country.

"Without the final approval of the road maps between Moscow and Minsk, the solemn signing, he announced his willingness to create a de facto union state from the second half of 2023. In my opinion, the destructive potential of tactical nuclear weapons is higher than the combat capability of the Belarusian armed forces," the expert said.

Mahda said Russia, by the decision to deploy tactical nuclear weapons on the territory of Belarus, is carrying out a hybrid offensive operation.

"I do not believe that tactical nuclear weapons on the territory of Belarus will have dual control, which Lukashenko spoke about on March 31. Putin does not confirm such steps and says Russia will adhere to the treaty on the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons. For Russia, the indicative 'observance' of the terms of the basic treaties of international law is an element in the formation of its image. To say this about Lukashenko is at least naive," he said.

Mahda said Putin is incredibly interested in the internationalization of the Russian war against Ukraine. In particular, Russia seeks to compensate for the fact of an acute shortage of allies, and Belarus is the only military-political ally.

"We can hardly expect a sharp and quick reaction from the West. Some 14 months have shown that there is no hurry in this matter. Therefore, Ukraine should cooperate in this context, first of all, with the countries of the Lublin Triangle," the expert said.

According to the political scientist, nuclear weapons on the territory of Belarus will significantly affect the situation in the middle of Poland, Lithuania and Latvia, which borders Belarus, but is not a member of the Lublin Triangle.

"Therefore, working with the countries of the Lublin Triangle, forming a joint position, is the task for May-June 2023 for Ukrainian diplomacy and also draw the attention of the world community to the fact that the proliferation of nuclear weapons increases the threat of nuclear war on the European continent. And this challenge is not an exaggeration," he said.

AD
AD
AD
AD
AD