The OPEC+ countries produced 500,000 barrels of oil per day more in March than planned, accounting for all voluntary cuts, analysts at the International Energy Agency (IEA) calculated.

The IEA analysts have also calculated that OPEC+ needs to produce 200,000 bpd more in the second half of the year than the organization produced in March in order to maintain global balance.

The IEA estimates all 22 OPEC+ countries increased oil production 80,000 bpd in March to 41.7 million bpd and 18 OPEC+ countries subject to quotas increased it 50,000 bpd and produced 500,000 bpd more than an implied ceiling of 34.82 million bpd, taking into account all voluntary cuts. Iraq and Kazakhstan continued to produce more than targeted, by 260,000 bpd and 160,000 bpd, respectively, despite committing to boost compliance, while the UAE was the biggest over-producer, by 310,000 bpd.

Nigeria fell 160,000 bpd short of its target, Azerbaijan 70,000 bpd, Russia 30,000 bpd, and number of other non-OPEC countries were 120,000 bpd below.

That left the OPEC+ group's effective spare capacity, excluding sanctions-hit Iran and Russia, at 5.7 million bpd, with Saudi Arabia accounting for 55% of the buffer.

The IEA said regarding how much crude OPEC+ would be required to produce to balance the global oil market, its current non-OPEC+ supply and global demand forecasts show the need for around 41.9 million bpd from the bloc in H2 2024, about 200,000 bpd above its March output.

For 2025, the call on OPEC+ crude falls by 300,000 bpd to an average 41.5 million bpd as demand growth decelerates and non-OPEC+ supply growth remains strong.

Global output is forecast to rise by 770,000 bpd to 102.9 million bpd in 2024. Non-OPEC+ production will expand by 1.6 million bpd, while OPEC+ supply could fall 820,000 bpd if voluntary cuts remain in place.