The positive scenario of the Ukraine Facility Plan assumes an average growth of real gross domestic product of Ukraine in 2024-2034 by an average of 6.2% per year, which will allow by 2033 to reach GDP per capita in euro equivalent at a level that was in Romania in 2021 – EUR13,600.

"The speed of economic growth depends on the extent to which Ukraine can attract FDIs. In turn, investment attractiveness is conditional on reforms. Narrowing the income gap with EU economies requires long-term political resolve," the report says.

"Priority of price stability in the NBU mandate is a vital precondition for successful European integration. The inflation target will have to be higher than in EU countries to absorb real appreciation with the inflation differential. Still, nominal appreciation will be needed to ensure low inflation in case of fast real convergence. Moreover, monetary policy might have to be relatively tight amid loose fiscal policy and budget deficit financed by foreign aid," the document reads.

According to it, in the positive scenario, the real hryvnia to dollar exchange rate could strengthen by 20% to the pre-war level by 2028, whereas now it is about 6.5% weaker.

"Convergence with income levels of EU economies will happen through real GDP growth and real exchange rate appreciation. The latter will be driven by productivity growth and capital inflows," the report reads.

It is assumed that 2024 will mark the end of active hostilities in Ukraine, and three recovery scenarios are modeled for 2024-2034, which differ in productivity growth, volumes of external assistance (budgetary support and preferential investments from donors) and the return of migrants, which are described in the Plan.

According to forecasts, real GDP of Ukraine will recover to the pre-war level of 2021 until 2027-2031, depending on the scenario, and GDP per capita at current prices will reach EUR10,100-14,900 at the end of the forecast horizon in 2034, which is 74–109% of Romania's level in 2021.