The war may continue for quite a long time, further worsening the economic situation in the country, so it is necessary to have a certain margin of strength and not to bet on any optimistic scenario of events. This opinion was expressed by Deputy Governor of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) Seriy Nikolaychuk.

"It is necessary to be prepared for heavy scenarios and not to be in pink glasses, expecting that the war will end in a month and life will quickly improve to the level that was before the war – this is a very dangerous strategy," he said on KSE Live.

Former Minister of Economy, President of KSE and Advisor to the Head of the President's Office Tymofiy Mylovanov called for preparations for a very difficult economic situation, including macroeconomic situation.

"The war will be long, its consequences will definitely be long – decades... and the economic situation will be difficult, there will be many challenges," he said.

Mylovanov pointed to the large deficit of the state budget, which cannot be closed without the National Bank's money issue financing, and even the debt restructuring is only a small part of the support that is needed.

"Difficult times are ahead of us," the economist said.

In this regard, Mylovanov called for more honest communications and welcomed the NBU's decision to devalue the official hryvnia exchange rate by 25%, as an honest signal to the market.

Last week, the National Bank of Ukraine also presented macroeconomic forecasts for the first time, according to which real GDP will fall by 33.4% this year, and in 2023-2024 it will increase by 5.5% and 4.9% respectively if the seaports are reopened.

The NBU said that inflation will rise to 31% this year (from 21.5% in June), and in the next year it will fall to 20.7%.

The current account balance after a positive value of $6.4 billion this year next year and 2024 will be negative –$3.9 billion and $8.8 billion respectively, and international reserves will decline to $20.8 billion at the end of this year from $22.8 billion in the middle of the year.

"This is a frankly moderate-optimistic scenario," Nikolaychuk said.

According to him, it includes difficult steps on the part of the authorities to maintain macroeconomic stability and a new program with the IMF.

At the same time, the deputy governor of the NBU admitted that there are still problems with the preparation of the IMF program. "The IMF has no experience in implementing macro-economic programs in the situations in which Ukraine finds itself: how to balance the budget in the medium term, given the huge expenditures on defense. It is necessary to make some decisions that go beyond standard recipes. We can see that within the Fund there is no readiness to take such bold steps," Nikolaychuk said.

In his view, without some political pressure on the IMF's stakeholders, including through voters, a positive outcome is unlikely to be achieved.