Head of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) Valeriya Gontareva has stated if the blockade in Donbas ends soon, then, according to the NBU estimates, negative effect on GDP and the balance of payments will be negligible.

However, a long-term continuation of the current situation will lead to a final rupture of production chains and the delivery of finished products. As a result, the volume of production of steel goods, coke, and electricity will reduce.

"According to our estimates, under the most pessimistic scenario, the continuation of the blockade until the end of the year could slow down economic growth by 1.3 percentage points (p.p.), i.e. to 1.5% in the current year," she said.

She noted such a situation in the east of Ukraine could be the risk of inflation indirectly, through a negative effect on the balance of payments and the exchange rate. She also said the state of the current account could be affected by the reduction in metallurgical goods exports and the increase in steam coal imports.

"According to our estimates, as a result the balance of the current account might deteriorate by about $2 billion, respectively, this could affect the dynamics of the interbank foreign exchange market," Gontareva said.