15:28 23.09.2016

World Bank keeps unchanged Ukraine's GDP growth forecast in 2016 at 1%

2 min read
World Bank keeps unchanged Ukraine's GDP growth forecast in 2016 at 1%

The World Bank has kept unchanged the real GDP growth forecast for Ukraine in 2016 at 1%, World Bank Economist Anastasia Golovach has said.

The forecast for Ukrainian GDP growth in 2017 was not changed – 2%.

"The economic recovery of the country's economy will continue to be slow due to the unfavorable external environment and the continuing uncertainty about the future development of events in eastern Ukraine and the pace of implementing reforms amid the difficult political situation," she said at a press conference in Kyiv.

"In addition to some noteworthy reforms implemented in recent months, deeper structural reforms to bolster investor confidence and productivity are needed to raise economic growth to 3-4% in the medium term. Such reforms are all the more important in light of headwinds from the global economic environment and the conflict in the east of Ukraine," Satu Kahkonen, the World Bank Country Director for Belarus, Moldova and Ukraine, said.

"Unlocking productivity will require more effective public investment, creating a level playing field for the private sector, reforming land governance, and facilitating trade. Providing more effective services and targeted assistance to the population will require health financing reform, effective decentralization, and improved targeting of social assistance. Tackling corruption and improving governance are central priorities on the road toward sustained recovery and shared prosperity for the population," the banker said.

Taking into account the current trend towards the reduction of real income and the increase in expenditure, the deficit of the consolidated national budget in view of Naftogaz Ukrainy's deficit in 2016 is expected to reach 4% of GDP, while public debt could rise to 90.2% of GDP.

According to the experts, to maintain macroeconomic stability in Ukraine and gradually reduce debt burden the fiscal policy should ensure a gradual reduction of the consolidated budget deficit to 2.6% of GDP in 2018.

According to the bankers, Ukraine will further need additional external financing to cover the net repayment of external loans by the real economy sector, which is estimated at $8 billion annually during 2016-2018. The country's cooperation with the IMF and other international financial lenders, according to World Bank's estimates, is important for the recovery of the country's international reserves and enhancing investor confidence.

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