11:46 27.12.2013

Contracts with Russia, China will support hryvnia, says IABU

3 min read

Strategic financial and economic contracts with Russia and China will support the hryvnia, but retaining stability will depend on the actions of the government and moods of the public, the Independent Association of Banks of Ukraine (IABU) has said.

"The present situation does not give reason for alarm… The stability of the national currency in the near term will depend on the further economic policy of Ukraine and devaluation expectations of the public," the IABU said on its Web site.

The association said that Ukraine retains a multi-vector direction in the economic policy, which gives a chance to use various instruments to support external liquidity.

"The attraction of funds via the placement of eurobonds [totally worth over $15 billion] will allow the refinancing of the large part of loans and repay the current financial liabilities. In addition, the signing of some strategic agreements with Russia and China will help stimulate the development of separate economic sectors and positively influence the structure of goods turnover," the association said.

The IABU said that Ukraine continues negotiations on the improvement of cooperation both with western (the EU and the United States) and eastern partners (Russia and China).

"Thanks to sticking to the multi-vector policy and developing interstate industrial cooperation in various economic sectors, the country could receive large investment and credit resources, which would allow modernizing production facilities and retaining the reputation of a reliable financial partner if the funds are used efficiently," the association said.

The IABU said that foreign debt is rather small, while Ukraine has proved to be a reliable borrower: over the past year payments to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) came to $5.62 billion of the principal of the foreign debt and $168 million to service it; payments on Ukraine's sovereign bonds stood at some $2 billion; payment on other debt securities totaled $1 billion of the principal of the debt and $958 million to service it.

"Taking into account the expected funds from the placement of eurobonds, foreign financial payments will moderately impact the exchange rate stability in 2014," the IABU said.

The association also said that by December 2013 forex reserves came to $18.8 billion, which is almost 2.3 times more than the projected volume of payments next year.

The association said that the country is continuously negotiating with the IMF, and next year new loans from international financial organizations could be received, which will allow increasing forex reserves.

The IABU also said that the large reduction of the price of imported gas from Russia could stimulate additional demand on gas by industrial companies, which will considerably improve the balance of national joint-stock company Naftogaz Ukrainy and cut the need for state subsidies.

"Thanks to this the balance of the budget would improve. Thanks to the reduction of the price of Russian gas from January 1, 2014 [by 35%], the outflow of foreign currency used to pay for Russian gas every month will fall. This will result in a reduction in demand for currency on the interbank currency market of Ukraine," the association said.

The association also said that thanks to measures taken by the central bank, the dollarization of the country's economy is gradually falling: the large difference in interest rates for deposits in hryvnias and foreign currency promotes this.

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