Igor Zhdanov, the Minister of Youth and sports in Ukraine (2014-2019), a public and political figure, Maidan commandant during the Revolution of Dignity, member of the Maidan Council, candidate of political sciences, ATO volunteer, analyst of the NGO "Open Policy Foundation"

 

Informational Defence of Ukraine provides a daily review of the military-political situation in Ukraine on March 3rd, based on an analysis of open sources.

1. The Armed Forces of Ukraine firmly hold the lines of defence and in some areas went on the offensive attack.

The main efforts of the enemy are currently focused on the encirclement of Kyiv and the weakening of resistance in the blocked settlements. The invader exhausted most of the operational reserves and began preparations for the transfer of additional forces and resources from the Southern and Eastern military districts.

In the Volyn direction, the enemy with the help of two BTGs moved to defensive operations in the areas of Poliske and Kukhari.

In Polissya direction, of the occupiers' group, forces with up to fifteen BTGs are conducting an offensive operation in Kozarovychi, Vyshhorod, Fastiv, and Obukhiv strips, and their efforts, moreover,  are focused on Byshiv and Ukrainka directions. The enemy partially lost its offensive potential, the main enemy forces were blocked and stopped in Makarov area and the occupiers withdrew from Bucha and Gostomel airfield.

In Seversky direction, the russian troops with forces of up to fourteen BTGs are conducting an offensive operation in Oster, Zazymia, Berezan, and Vyshenka strips, concentrating their efforts in the direction of Kyiv. At the same time, the enemy regroups to continue the offensive attack in the direction of Brovary.

On Slobozhansky direction, the enemy with forces up to sixteen BTGr conducts an offensive operation, concentrating efforts on the direction of Novomoskovsk blocking Kharkiv from the north. The enemy captured Balakleia. The enemy did not succeed in the Okhtyrka area.

In Donetsk direction, the enemy forces of 1, 2 army corps, and seven BTGr continues offensive operations in Novoaidar, Volnovakha and Mariupol directions, reaching the village of Novooleksandrivka. Having a significant advantage in technique, the enemy surrounded Mariupol.

The occupiers were stopped in Mykolaiiv direction, but the enemy had partial success in the direction of Voznesensk.

Also, the enemy continues to prepare for the landing of marines in Zatoka and Chornomorks. The groups are covered by a detachment of fire support ships and a missile boat strike group.

As of 6:20 am on March 4, the fire in the training building of Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power (NPP) in Enerhodar was extinguished. There are no casualties, the radiation background is normal.

According to the Ukrainian military, the total aggressor’s losses from February 24 to March 4 were approximately: 9166 combatants, 251 tanks, 939 combat armoured vehicles, 105 units of artillery systems, 50 units of SZV, means Air defence - 18 units, aircraft - 33 units (to be specified), helicopters - 37 units, motor vehicles - 404 units, light speedboats - 2 units, tanks with fuel - 60, UAVs operational and tactical level - 3.

Data are being updated. The calculation is complicated by the high intensity of hostilities.

2. The russian aggressor continues mass terror against the civilian population of Ukraine.

As we have emphasised before, the russian occupation forces are unable to overcome the defences of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and for the third day in a row use tactics of mass terror against peaceful Ukrainians, firing rockets, hail, artillery and from aircraft at Ukrainian cities and villages.

russian occupation forces fired on Zaporizhzhia NPP, resulting in a fire in the administrative and training buildings of the power plant.

As of the morning of March 4th, the fire was extinguished, the ZNPP power units remain intact, and the existing damage to the reactor compartment of Unit 1 does not affect the safety of the unit. Systems and elements important for the safety of NPPs are in a working condition. No changes in the radiation status have been recorded so far.

On March 3rd, russian troops launched a missile strike on a high-rise housing estate in central Chernihiv. Many apartment buildings were damaged, walls and ceilings were destroyed in some places. As a result of russian air strikes in Chernihiv, the bodies of 22 people have already been removed from the rubble.

As many as 34 civilians were killed and 285 people, including 10 children, were injured in the russian shelling of Kharkiv Oblast as of the morning of March 3rd.

russian aircraft attacked two schools in Chernihiv and private homes, with nine dead and four injured.

The russian occupiers are seriously shelling Mangush in the Donetsk region, a woman was killed in the shelling in Mayorsk, and Krasnohorivka was also shelled.

On March 1st and 2nd, the russian occupiers fired on the surgical and sanitary departments of the Vasilevskyi Multidisciplinary Intensive Care Hospital, killing three people.

As of March 3rd, the siege of the russians continues for the third day in Kherson. The city hall declared a humanitarian catastrophe.

According to foreign intelligence information, russia has placed thermobaric weapons, or so-called vacuum bombs, on the territory of Ukraine and uses them against civilians.

According to the Prosecutor General of Ukraine Ms. Iryna Venedyktova, Ukraine is uniting an international coalition for justice against russia’s aggression, and Lithuania and Poland have already launched an investigation. International Criminal Court Prosecutor Karim Khan has also launched an investigation.

3. Growing international support and assistance to the war in Ukraine.

On March 4th, the G7 foreign ministers will hold a meeting to coordinate steps in response to russian aggression and discuss the situation in Ukraine.

According to NBU Chairman Kyrylo Shevchenko, in recent days the international financial, technical and humanitarian support has amounted to more than $ 15 billion, of which more than $ 5 billion went directly to the state budget.

Ukraine can rely on the additional assistance from the United States. The administration of US President Joe Biden has asked the US Congress to provide Ukraine with an additional $10 billion in humanitarian aid.

Ukraine and the European Union have signed a memorandum of understanding, which will unlock the first tranche of macro-financial assistance to Ukraine in the amount of 600 million euros from a package of 1.2 billion euro.

The Minister for Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Mr. Dmytro Kuleba stated: “A few days ago it was impossible to imagine in principle that the issue of membership would be resolved. We are now in a new reality. Ukraine will definitely be a member of the EU, but Europeans must now build the process in a right way.”

The German Ministry of Economy has approved the supply of 2,700 Strela anti-aircraft missiles to Ukraine from the former reserves of the armed forces of the German Democratic Republic.

500 foreign doctors expressed their readiness to come to Ukraine and help treat wounded soldiers and civilians.

4. The second round of Ukrainian-russian talks has begun.

In the evening of March 3rd, the second stage of negotiations between Ukraine and russia began.

The Ukrainian delegation proposes to discuss the following issues: 1) immediate ceasefire; 2) armistice; 3) humanitarian corridors for the removal of civilians from destroyed or constantly shelled villages and towns.

The russian delegation reiterates its old mantras about the demilitarisation, denazification and neutrality of our country, which have nothing to do with the current military and political realities.

As a result of the negotiations, an agreement was reached on the creation of corridors for civilians from the constantly shelled towns and villages.

On the other hand, the information published by the French president is of particular concern. After talks with russian president putin, French President Emmanuel Macron believes that putin seeks to seize the entire Ukraine, and that “the worst is yet to come.” The russian dictator also told Macron that the information about the rocket attacks on Kyiv was untrue. Such a statement simply casts doubt on putin’s mental health

The Ukrainian people clearly understand who is the main culprit in the Ukrainian-russian war. According to a poll by the Rating group, 55% of Ukrainians believe that the russian government is to blame for the war against Ukraine, and another 38% blame both the government and the people of russia.

5. The russian economy is on the verge of collapse due to sanctions.

The fall in russia’s GDP due to Western sanctions could exceed 10% of GDP. Such data are contained in the report published by the russian portal Frank Media.

This report was to assess the consequences of the West imposition of tough sanctions and was prepared by experts from russian Central Bank, Sberbank and VTB and presented to the russian government.

The report was based on the assumption that russia’s military aggression would not go beyond Donbass. Therefore, the imposed sanctions turned out to be stronger even under the “tough scenario”. In particular, the possibility of imposing sanctions against the Central Bank of the russian federation was not considered. However, even in this scenario, financiers predict catastrophic consequences for the russian economy.

Thus, russia’s GDP will fall by at least 10%, the number of unemployed will increase from 4% to 12%, and the base rate of the Central Bank will increase to 20%. Urgent recapitalisation of sanctioned banks is also needed. This will require 5-6 trillion rubles (at the current rate - 45-51 billion euros).

On March 3rd, the London Stock Exchange suspended trading in shares of 27 issuers with strong ties to russia, Morgan Stanley excluded them from the index of developing countries, as the country is now “unfit for investment.”

Volkswagen has announced that it will stop production of vehicles in russia (Kaluga, Nizhni Novgorod) amid the russian invasion of Ukraine.

Earlier, Porsche and BMW became the last carmakers to announce the closure of plants in Europe due to a shortage of spare parts from Ukraine as a result of russia’s war.

Athletes from russia and Belarus have been denied participation in the 2022 Winter Paralympic Games in Beijing, which will begin on March 4th.

According to Ukrainian intelligence information, most members of the russian elite are currently evacuating their relatives from Moscow to Georgia, Israel, and the UAE.

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The Armed Forces of Ukraine is increasing its resistance, and the force of the enemy’s strikes is becoming weaker. At the same time, the terror of the occupiers against peaceful Ukrainians is growing. russia’s economy is suffering significant losses, which will eventually lead to its collapse. International aid to Ukraine is growing.

Glory to Ukraine!