An absolute majority (72%) of Ukrainians support holding peace talks with Russia, but about half of citizens are willing to accept territorial compromises to end the war, while an absolute majority considers any reduction or limitation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine unacceptable, according to the results of a sociological survey conducted by the Future Research Foundation and presented during a press conference at the Interfax-Ukraine news agency on Thursday.
"The dynamics of public sentiment demonstrate a high demand for finding diplomatic ways to end the fire. In particular, 72.2% of respondents rather support holding peace talks with Russia. Opponents account for 20.8% of those surveyed," said Svitlana Kushnir, project manager at the Future Research Foundation, during the presentation of the survey results.
Among possible formats for ending the war, 48.5% choose compromises and truce negotiations, even with territorial or political concessions; 24.6% support a temporary "freeze" along the frontline without official recognition of lost territories; while 18.6% of respondents favor continuing the war to the 1991 borders without compromises.
At the same time, territorial compromises to end the war are accepted by 51.7% of citizens (29.4% – "yes, if it leads to the end of the war," 22.3% – "rather yes"), while 41.3% of respondents oppose territorial compromises (20.4% – "no, under no circumstances," 20.9% – "rather no").
"This negotiation track is closely tied to red security lines, which society considers unacceptable to cross. In particular, 76.3% of respondents consider reducing or limiting the size of the Armed Forces at the demand of the other side unacceptable even under security guarantees (for 55.2% of respondents, this is categorically unacceptable)," Kushnir reported.
According to her, 58.7% of respondents believe the situation in Ukraine is moving in the wrong direction (30.9% definitely, 27.8% rather). Meanwhile, 32.5% of respondents assess the direction of development as correct (8.6% definitely, 23.9% rather), and 8.8% hesitated to answer.
At the same time, readiness for compromise is pressured by acute socio-economic problems, notably bribery and corruption in government (51%) and rising food prices (39.6%). In addition, there is anxiety regarding the winter period: 56.1% of families are fully or partially prepared for possible prolonged power and heat outages, while 43.2% assess their readiness as insufficient.
According to the poll, 84.5% of respondents consider the current mobilization process unfair, with 59.6% considering it completely unfair.
Political expert, former Minister of Youth and Sports of Ukraine (2014–2019), and head of the "Information Defense" project of Open Policy Foundation, Ihor Zhdanov, noted that such survey results indicate that Ukraine and its politicians are ready for negotiations, but "want negotiations with specific substance, rather than just talks about capitulation."
"Obviously, there is no talk whatsoever about any capitulation in Ukrainian society. Rather, the point is to hold negotiations, find some compromise, and society is ready for a compromise. Why isn't peace being achieved? Why aren't substantive peace consultations and negotiations taking place, or truces being announced for this? And the Russian dictator Putin is not ready to hold peace talks; he does not want this. Because conditions that would force or push him toward peace have not matured in Russia," he noted during the press conference.
Commenting on the fact that 76% of Ukrainian citizens consider limiting the size of the Armed Forces unacceptable, the expert noted that this indicates Ukrainian society relies solely on itself and its own Armed Forces. "We rely on ourselves and our Armed Forces. We also need to develop our own defense-industrial complex to ensure a predictable situation and equal conditions for Ukrainian and international companies," Zhdanov said.
He also drew attention to the fact that more than half of Ukrainians name government corruption as an especially pressing problem, even surpassing rising prices and low wages.
"Bribery and corruption in government are not just a public perception, but also a problem tied to receiving funds from the European Union. We were told clearly: you must carry out judicial reform, there is the Kakhovka-Koz plan [EU reform agenda] related to anti-corruption activities, such as adopting an anti-corruption strategy, competitive selection of prosecutors, and carrying out judicial reform. Unfortunately, out of 10 points, zero have been fulfilled. All these bills would benefit the country. There are none among them that cause ambiguous attitudes like socio-economic bills. They need to be passed, but for some reason they are not, and this simply leads to us not receiving the corresponding funds from the EU," Zhdanov noted.
The survey was conducted from September 19 to 22 using the CATI (computer-assisted telephone interviewing) method with a random sample of mobile numbers among 1,203 respondents aged 18 and older across all government-controlled territories of Ukraine. The marginal maximum theoretical sampling error does not exceed 2.9% with a 95% confidence probability.
