Strengthening air defense at ports, developing insurance mechanisms, and the possibility of providing escorts for merchant ships in the Black Sea – these measures could improve shipping and the state of Ukrainian exports, according to a report by the United Ukraine analytical center presented to Interfax-Ukraine on Wednesday.
In particular, an expert at the center Ivan Us expressed the view that Ukraine should work with Turkey to explore the possibility of Ankara enlisting partners to escort merchant ships in the Black Sea.
"Turkey can enlist partners it deems necessary to escort ships," Us said at a press conference titled "Enclosed sea: Mutual blockade of Black Sea ports of Ukraine and Russia as instrument of war."
Among the priority measures, the expert also cited strengthening the ports' air defense, since without port infrastructure, ships will not be able to safely enter them.
He identified the development of insurance mechanisms as a second priority, since without insurance against war risks, ship owners, he said, will lack sufficient incentives to call at Ukrainian ports.
The document's recommendations include a proposal to create a state-run mechanism for insuring military risks, specifically "a joint EU-G7 pool with a sovereign backstop to cover the lives of crews."
It is also proposed to introduce monitoring based on AIS and satellite data, a public incident registry, and a rapid investigation mechanism.
As for the possibility of imposing a moratorium on attacks against merchant ships, crews, and civilian port infrastructure – unlinked to sanctions or political packages – the authors of the document believe there is a chance, albeit a small one.
"But we must fight for these opportunities, because everything hinges on the details and the positions of the parties. If Russia is most concerned about fuel shortages and the resulting social tensions, as well as attacks by Ukrainian defense forces on oil refineries, while the world prioritizes grain security, Ukraine prioritizes the broader complex," an expert on political and security issues and head of the United Ukraine analytical center Ihor Popov said.
An international political scientist and co-founder of the United Ukraine analytical center Anton Kuchukhidze said Ukraine is ready to consider relevant proposals regarding critical infrastructure, provided that Russia implements reciprocal measures.
He also noted the need to develop alternative export routes, particularly through Poland and Moldova.
As noted in the document, in the first half of 2026, 24.6 million metric tonnes of cargo passed through the ports of Greater Odesa, while 2.7 million metric tonnes were transported via alternative routes covering the Danube, rail, and road transport, although in 2023, approximately 29 million metric tonnes of cargo passed through the Danube route.
"So, in principle, there are alternatives, but it's clear that this is more complicated," the expert said.
Political scientist Petro Oleshchuk and international affairs expert Dmytro Levus recalled the three previous phases of Ukrainian ports' operations following the start of full-scale Russian aggression. During the first stage, from February 2022 to July 2023, the ports were closed; this was followed by a year-long Black Sea Grain Initiative, during which 32.8 million metric tonnes of grain were exported before Russia withdrew from the initiative.
Starting in August 2023, the Ukrainian Maritime Corridor was established, through which 150 million metric tons of cargo – including 90 million metric tonnes of grain – were exported, and 6,000 ships were handled. However, due to intensified Russian attacks on both ports and ships, its operations were nearly halted by the end of July 2026.
