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China leads trade with Ukraine but faces steep public backlash – Active Group, Experts Club poll

China leads trade with Ukraine but faces steep public backlash – Active Group, Experts Club poll
Photo: Interfax-Ukraine / Oleksandr Zubko

Canada ranked first in terms of the balance of positive and negative attitudes among Ukrainians toward the 50 largest trading partners of Ukraine, while China, which leads in trade turnover, received the lowest score, and attitudes toward Poland deteriorated significantly, according to the results of a study by Active Group and the Experts Club information and analytical center.

According to the published ranking, Canada's balance of positive and negative assessments stood at plus 73.8 percentage points. It was followed by Sweden at plus 70.6 p.p., the Netherlands at 69.7 p.p., Finland and Norway at 69.3 p.p. each, France at 69.1 p.p., Italy at 67.1 p.p., Lithuania at 65.9 p.p., and Switzerland and the United Kingdom at 65.6 p.p. each.

А study by Active Group and Experts Club

This indicator is the difference between the shares of positive and negative responses. In particular, 76.3% of respondents expressed a positive attitude toward Canada, 2.5% a negative attitude, and 19.2% a neutral attitude.

The worst balance was recorded for China, at minus 25.4 p.p.: 18.2% of respondents assessed it positively, 43.6% negatively, and 33.9% neutrally. Negative figures were also recorded for India, at minus 14.3 p.p., Hungary, at minus 12.7 p.p., and Lebanon, at minus 9.2 p.p.

Olha Bezrukova, Doctor of Sociology and head of the Kyiv branch of the Sociological Association of Ukraine, called the People's Republic of China a telling example of the gap between the scale of economic interaction and the public image of a country.

"We saw that China is Ukraine's largest economic partner in terms of total trade turnover, but this in no way translates into a positive public image. This shows that Ukrainian citizens clearly distinguish between the pragmatism of economic interaction and their overall assessment of a country. Economic dependence and interaction do not equal public sympathy for this country," she said at a press conference at the Interfax-Ukraine news agency on Tuesday.

One of the most notable changes was the deterioration in attitudes toward Poland. While the balance of assessments stood at plus 41.7 p.p. in March 2026, in August positive and negative responses were virtually equal, with a slight predominance of negative ones. A positive attitude was expressed by 34.6% of respondents, a negative attitude by 37%, and a neutral attitude by 25.4%.

"At the beginning of the invasion, Poland was perceived almost as the main partner. We asked about bringing Ukraine and Poland closer together, politically and economically, and even about uniting in some kind of common alliance, and we saw enormous positive results. And here we see that Poland still seems to remain a key partner, but they have already forgotten about unification; we see a steady negative attitude," said Active Group founder Andriy Yeremenko.

He linked the deterioration in assessments to the position of part of the Polish authorities, which he considers anti-Ukrainian.

At the same time, the balance of attitudes toward Hungary improved from minus 33.6 p.p. in March to minus 12.7 p.p. in August, although negative assessments still prevail. As for the United States, the figure increased from plus 19.4 to plus 38.4 p.p. A positive attitude toward the United States was expressed by 55% of respondents, a negative attitude by 16.6%, and a neutral attitude by 25.6%.

Asked who contributes most to achieving peace in Ukraine, 44.6% of respondents named European Union countries, 25.2% the United States, 23.3% the United Kingdom, 4.1% the PRC, 1.8% India, and 1% Brazil. When asked which countries should be prioritized for the development of trade and economic relations, 69.9% chose EU countries and the United Kingdom, 11.9% the United States, and 8.4% the PRC.

According to Bezrukova, assessments of the U.S. role in achieving peace remained relatively stable over the three waves of the study.

"Overall sympathy for a country and an assessment of its functionality at the international level are related, but they are not identical. Country images are multidimensional. A person may change their emotional attitude toward a state while continuing to recognize its international weight," the sociologist explained.

Another model, she said, is demonstrated by India: 48.3% of respondents expressed a neutral attitude toward it, but among those who had formed an opinion, negative assessments prevailed – 31.5% versus 17.2% positive.

Economic indicators were presented by Experts Club founder, deputy director of the Interfax-Ukraine news agency and Candidate of Economic Sciences Maksym Urakin. According to data from the State Customs Service cited by him, in the first half of 2026, Ukraine's trade turnover amounted to $70.3 billion, exports to $21 billion, and imports to $49.3 billion. The negative balance in trade in goods reached $28.3 billion.

"If we compare this with the first half of 2025, there was also an imbalance then, but now exports have increased by approximately 5%, while imports have risen by almost 30%. In other words, the deficit increased by more than $10 billion over the year. Therefore, it is very important for us to analyze our main partners," he said.

According to the materials presented, trade turnover with China amounted to about $14.68 billion in January-June. Ukraine exported $778 million worth of goods to the PRC and imported $13.90 billion worth, resulting in a deficit of approximately $13.12 billion. Poland remained the largest buyer of Ukrainian goods, with $2.38 billion. Türkiye ranked second among export markets at $1.78 billion, and Italy third at $1.28 billion.

In terms of total trade, after the PRC came Poland at $7.05 billion, Türkiye at $4.90 billion, Germany at $4.48 billion, and the United States at $3.07 billion. Yeremenko highlighted Türkiye as an example of a combination of significant trade turnover and predominantly positive perceptions: 52.3% of respondents expressed a favorable attitude toward it, while 7.4% expressed a negative attitude.

Urakin separately drew attention to partners with which trade provides Ukraine with a positive balance. In the first half of the year, the largest positive balances were recorded with Spain at $578.1 million, Egypt at $527.1 million, and Moldova at $467.2 million. They were followed by Algeria at $309.2 million, the Netherlands at $221.5 million, and Lebanon at $220.5 million. Libya, Tunisia, Iraq and Yemen also made the top 10.

At the same time, neutral attitudes prevail toward a number of these partners. Egypt was assessed neutrally by 61.3% of respondents, Algeria by 65.8%, and Tunisia by 67.3%. The participants in the press conference attributed this to Ukrainians' insufficient awareness of these countries and emphasized the need for more active economic and public diplomacy.

"More needs to be done to develop not only general awareness. First and foremost, business associations, the Ministry of Economy and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs need to work on developing bilateral relations and improving the balance. At a time when Ukraine already lacks funding and, essentially, lives on external borrowing, we need to expand cooperation with countries with which we can have a positive balance," said Active Group Director Oleksandr Pozniy.

Urakin recommended that embassies accredited in Ukraine ensure full-fledged communication in Ukrainian, openness to the media, and regular communication of the results of cooperation.

"The first recommendation is to regularly demonstrate specific projects, specific actions, the presence here of foundations, embassies, teams and diplomats in the humanitarian sphere and in science. The second is to be open to questions and requests from the media and the public. We also need to use our sociological research to draw conclusions and cement our relations, primarily our trade relations," he added.

This is the third wave of the study; previous surveys were conducted in August 2025 and March 2026. The survey was conducted in August 2026 using self-administered online questionnaires through the SunFlowerSociology panel. A total of 800 Ukrainian citizens aged 18 and older were surveyed. According to the organizers, the sample is representative by age, gender and region, and the stated maximum theoretical margin of statistical error at a 95% confidence level is 3.5%.

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