Ukraine may avoid gas imports this winter as energy system becomes more protected – expert
Ukraine has done significant work to get through the 2026-27 winter heating season, but Russian occupiers will still look for weak and vulnerable spots in the country's energy system, energy expert Andrian Prokip has said.
"As for winter, there are grounds to believe the first half will be fairly warm. It's often the case for us that frosts start in the second half of winter, but last winter, remember, we had frosts that were the coldest in 20 years and snowfalls that were the heaviest in 10 years," Prokip said during a discussion titled "Winter Is Near: Are the State and Society Ready?" at the Interfax-Ukraine press center on Thursday, adding that if the whole winter is warm, the problems for the population from strikes on energy infrastructure will be largely offset.
He described the gas situation in Ukraine as "completely normal."
"Gas production is constantly under fire, but the situation with gas storage is fundamentally different from what we had, let's say, a year ago. Last year, in literally four months, we imported 1.7 billion cubic meters of gas, while over the same period this year we've had practically no imports and are ahead of plan for filling gas storage facilities — it's possible we won't import gas at all," the expert said.
On electricity, Prokip said Ukraine has used up all its margin of safety, but the energy system is becoming more resilient to wartime risks with each passing year.
"We're constantly getting new generation, distributed generation, and facilities are becoming more and more protected," he explained.
The expert noted that Russian occupiers are constantly changing their equipment, strategy and tactics for strikes.
"They're constantly looking for weak spots. Last year we saw them targeting facilities they hadn't hit before. This year they'll be looking for weak spots in exactly the same way. So we have this kind of double race to stay ahead — we're thinking about where they might strike and trying to protect those places, while they're looking for places to strike. Given that the enemy is essentially cornered, without gains on the battlefield, while our defense forces are effectively destroying Russian oil refining, they'll try to deliver the strongest possible strikes and will keep looking for these weak spots," Prokip said.
He is therefore convinced Ukraine will see outages and faces high risks of local heating problems, but that the coming winter will be no worse than last year's.
"Overall, I'm fairly optimistic about winter. But optimism doesn't mean there won't be problems — it means there won't be problems we can't get through. So, of course, it's worth preparing for a scenario roughly like the winter we had last year," Prokip said.
The discussion also featured a presentation of the "Winter. City Will Hold" project, which envisages comprehensive preparation of communities for the 2026/2027 heating season — from risk assessment to specific action algorithms in the event of shelling, prolonged blackouts, loss of heat and water supply, and other emergencies. The project's second stage will begin with the onset of cold weather and will focus directly on helping community residents.