The level of overall risk for Ukraine, based on the results of the second quarter of 2026, decreased for the first time since observations began by 5.7 points to 51.9, while the level of societal polarization, conversely, rose for the first time to a high level of 66.6 out of 100, participants in a press conference on "Risks for Ukraine: Security, Politics, Social Divides," held at the Interfax-Ukraine agency on Wednesday, noted.
In a report presented during the event by the United Ukraine analytical center, the center's founder and Doctor of Political Sciences Ihor Petrenko noted that the political risk assessment methodology consists of two indices: the Country Risk Index (UCRI) and the Societal Polarization Risk Index (UPRI). "The Country Risk Index, which is released quarterly, measures the state of the state itself. Meanwhile, the polarization risk index is released once every six months and measures the state of society. We publish them together because separately they can be misleading, and this quarter just showed how one risk gives positive dynamics and the other, accordingly, negative," he said.
Specifically, UCRI in the second quarter stood at 51.90 out of 100. According to analysts, this is still an elevated level of risk, as before, but for the first time since calculations began, the indicator went down: in the first quarter, it was 56.97.
Co-founder of United Ukraine and international political scientist Anton Kuchuhidze explains the drop in this index by the fact that the threat from Russia does not disappear, but external support is strengthening. "In addition to the risk to the existence of statehood, sovereignty, and territorial integrity in the form of aggressive policies by Russia, we study many other parameters concerning the armed forces through international partners, Ukraine's financial support, sanctions pressure, and so on. And the second quarter of this year was effective for foreign policy and the geopolitical contour around Ukraine," he commented.
Thus, analysts emphasize, the main reason for the improvement in the country risk index is foreign policy-related. "After Viktor Orban's defeat in the elections in Hungary on April 12, the Hungarian veto was lifted, and Ukraine received unblocked EU aid, a new sanctions package against Russia, and IMF funds," Petrenko notes.
At the same time, the second indicator, the polarization index, changed for the worse, rising from 63.3 to 66.6 out of 100. According to political scientist and Doctor of Political Sciences Petro Oleshchuk, this indicator reflects the domestic political and party-political context. "Based on the results of the study, we can say that Ukraine's institutional resilience remains operational rather than consolidated. That is, everything relies primarily on the preservation of presidential legitimacy, parliamentary productivity, and technical governability of the government. This allows the system to work, but leaves all the problems that influence the fact that we cannot talk about any full resilience or full stability," he said.
And right now, for the first time since measurements began, the societal polarization index has crossed the threshold of a high level and shows the risk of a split in society. As Petrenko notes, the main reason for this is the approach of elections. "As soon as the topic of presidential and parliamentary elections moved from talk to practical preparation, political forces began to compete more actively among themselves, and this raised the indicator of party-political divides. Other components of the index – language and regional differences, property inequality, the split between the frontline and the rear – remained at the previous level," he said.
Thus, summarizing the results of the study, analysts emphasized that the improvement in the risk index should not be exaggerated: it applies mainly to external support, while the security situation and the work of the authorities within the country have almost not changed. That is why the polarization index is growing. "Public sentiment has worsened: disinformation remains an increasingly acute problem – with the active use of artificial intelligence and deepfakes, as well as people's fatigue from donations to the army. The readiness to endure the war dropped below half of respondents for the first time – to 48%," Petrenko stressed.
Thus, the situation in the second quarter of this year turned out ambiguous: external and security threats to the country receded slightly, but the split within society, conversely, intensified.
That is why at the end of the press conference, analysts noted that there is no pleasant scenario. "In fact, right now we have option A, when elections are officially announced and the fragmentation of society is observed, which converts into open competition, and antagonism turns into campaign mobilization. And this is exactly what we warn against," the founder of the United Ukraine analytical center summarized.
Methodology: Both indicators are calculated using proprietary methodology on a 100-point scale, where the higher the score, the worse the situation. UCRI assesses the overall situation in the country – security, the work of the authorities, the economy, partner support, and public sentiment. UPRI assesses how divided Ukrainians are among themselves and whether these divides can escalate.
