Analysts: Govt changes driven by need to replace US ambassador, calls for internal reform
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had previously planned changes in the Ukrainian government, but Yulia Svyrydenko's resignation as prime minister was unexpected and was likely caused by a U.S. factor, according to Сhairman of the board of the Penta Center for Applied Political Studies Volodymyr Fesenko.
"It appears that Zelenskyy had been planning some personnel changes; this is confirmed by various sources. He has a certain style: in the summer, when there are lulls in his foreign policy activity and he has time to address domestic issues – particularly personnel matters – he very often made personnel changes precisely during the summer… And now the president was clearly preparing for this. But something happened that accelerated these processes, and it seems that an American trigger was at work," Fesenko told Interfax-Ukraine news agency on Monday.
In his view, the catalyst for a series of personnel decisions was the situation involving Ukraine's ambassador to the United States Olha Stefanishyna who recently informed the head of state that she would have to step down as ambassador for personal reasons.
"And the question arose for Zelenskyy: who? And after the summit in Ankara – the NATO summit – it became clear to him that, given Trump's new stance on Ukraine, our cooperation with the United States is now clearly more positive and favorable, and we need to step up our work with the United States. This includes the drone deal, the need to conclude a licensing agreement for interceptor missiles for the Patriot air defense systems, and investment projects related to the resource agreement. Since Svyrydenko was specifically in charge of these projects – and the president apparently already had the impression that her relationship with parliament wasn't going very well, and there was some tension surrounding her – he was considering replacing her as prime minister. "And, apparently, the situation with Stefanishyna and the meeting with Trump pushed him to make quicker decisions," the expert said.
He noted that on Saturday, July 11, Zelenskyy announced in his address his intention to strengthen certain diplomatic priorities. "And on Sunday, he apparently decided on his own that these processes could be accelerated and linked to government reshuffles. And the process regarding Svyrydenko was set in motion. And this means that if the prime minister leaves, the government must also be reshuffled," Fesenko said.
The expert believes that the U.S. track will be strengthened primarily by replacing the ambassador, "but this will be an ambassador with special powers and high status – a former prime minister." "They may formalize this in some additional way, but it will be an ambassador with special powers, with expanded authority, who will be able to make decisions directly with the president, and possibly with the government as well. But as for ambassadors, yes, I think this will definitely mean strengthening certain areas. Perhaps the Middle East as well, since that is one of our priorities. But right now, the key areas are the United States and the European Union," he said.
Political expert Kostiantyn Matviyenko, for his part, is convinced that there are many reasons for the government reshuffle, and one of them is that Svyrydenko "clearly failed to deliver." "Even at the minimal level at which she could have ensured it, she still failed to provide the necessary quality of management. Consequently, the government has effectively become an appendage of the President's Office, and thus the president has been held responsible for the government's ineffective performance," he explained in an exclusive comment to the agency.
The expert cited the budget process as a telling example: "What the government proposed in the draft state budget didn't hold water, so to speak – it's very difficult to implement."
He also noted that Svyrydenko had been appointed at the "whim" of former head of the Office of the President, Andriy Yermak. "Now that Yermak's influence has become more behind-the-scenes than public, the question of a change has naturally arisen," Matviyenko said.
He cited another reason: the president's likely desire to appoint Serhiy Koretsky, chairman of the board of Naftogaz Ukrainy, as head of the government. "Winter is coming. We had a very difficult time getting through the winters of 2025-2026, but we made it through. This was largely not due to the government, but rather to local authorities, the engineers, and the private companies that ensured we got through the heating season. But this cannot continue. And so, accordingly, the president will most likely nominate Serhiy Koretsky – that is, a person who undoubtedly knows the energy sector, who is an expert, and who has proven himself here, so to speak, through his career path," the expert said.
Matviyenko also agrees that "an opportunity has arisen" to replace Ambassador to the United States Olha Stefanishyna. "Svyrydenko has, let's say, good connections in the United States, and that is why the issue of a replacement is being considered," he said.
The expert noted that the likelihood of this replacement is high, but it will not happen immediately: "First, a request for agrément must be sent and agrément obtained – she will not take up her post as ambassador before fall."
Political analyst and head of the Center for Analysis and Strategies Ihor Chalenko cited primarily internal motives among the reasons for the government reshuffle: "Svyrydenko was never able to completely shake off her reputation as "Yermak"s person,' even though a great deal of time – and not just in the media – was devoted to portraying her as having a certain degree of autonomy and having successfully reinvented herself."
"I think the first issue is that she was unable to gain sufficient internal administrative clout-something for which Shmyhal was precisely known: that he is a technocrat, that he doesn't seek political glory, but he was able to organize communications, he was well-received by the Verkhovna Rada, and so on. Svyrydenko has not reached that level," he said.
At the same time, the expert also mentioned the U.S. perspective. "When the previous ambassador, Ms. Stefanishyna, was appointed, people were already saying – and the situation with NABU showed this – that Ms. Stefanishyna had certain unpleasant associations. And even back then, appointing Stefanishyna was a certain risk. So they decided that they should probably make a switch after all, since Svyrydenko does have good connections – directly with the U.S. Department of the Treasury and, essentially, with Americans in general. Her Washington track, one might say, has been the most successful. So they decided, I think, to move her to that position," Chalenko explained in an exclusive comment to Interfax-Ukraine.
At the same time, he suggested that, since all the procedural steps and obtaining approvals take time, Svyrydenko might be given a temporary position, just like Stefanishyna – as a special representative for the United States or something similar.
The expert noted that public sentiment and the demand for personnel changes are key reasons for a government reshuffle. "There is a general demand in society for renewal. In the absence of elections, the only thing that can be changed – and thus bring about such a transformation – is the government. The government has not, in essence, served a full year. There is no budget implementation – we're seeing a complete overhaul – nor is there a government action plan, and many other aspects are lacking. Right now, this reshuffle is more of a reshuffling of positions; you can't say it's a total renewal," Chalenko said.