Political expert Kostiantyn Matviienko states that there are risks involved in replacing the head of the Ministry of Defense, Mykhailo Fedorov, while describing his performance in the role as effective compared to previous leaders of the Ukrainian defense agency.
"Fedorov has proven himself effective in this position. Reznikov or Umierov simply did not come close to what Fedorov managed to achieve. I would particularly highlight the establishment of cooperation with Starlink – this is highly important. I am aware of the conflict between Syrskyi and Fedorov, but in my view, Fedorov should still be retained. Minister of Internal Affairs Klymenko may be proposed for the position of Minister of Defense, but I believe Fedorov needs to be kept," Matviyenko said in an exclusive comment to the Interfax-Ukraine agency on Monday.
Political analyst and head of the Center for Analysis and Strategies Ihor Chalenko notes the presence of pressure on Fedorov, particularly from a number of people's deputies, and the possibility of Klymenko being appointed in his place, but called this a mistake in the context of mobilization issues. "Right now, due to a complete reset of the government, various influence groups have an opportunity to displace the defense minister after all. We are hearing that they want to put Klymenko there, although I think this could be a mistake: I personally consider the current state of mobilization unsatisfactory, specifically due to gaps in the work of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, so appointing the head of the MIA and saying he is supposed to strengthen mobilization seems odd," he explained in a comment to the agency.
The expert also noted the likelihood of several other ministers being replaced, mentioning in particular the Deputy Prime Minister for Restoration of Ukraine – Minister of Community and Territorial Development Oleksiy Kuleba, and reminding that the heads of two ministries, including the Ministry of Justice, still hold acting status.
Volodymyr Fesenko, Chairman of the Board of Penta Center for Applied Political Studies, noted that a series of meetings the president held on Sunday with various candidates indicates that President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has already been considering personnel changes in the government, as he has done in similar cases previously.
"Now we see a similar story: on Sunday, he met with Koretsky, Shmyhal, and Fedorov – these are key figures in the current government. He also met with the Mayor of Kharkiv, Ihor Terekhov, who has also been named as one of the candidates for the post of Prime Minister. I see certain signs that there is some white-washing and promotion of Terekhov's candidacy. For now, I lean toward the more likely scenario that Terekhov could become a Deputy Prime Minister overseeing infrastructure, the municipal sector, and frontline regions – meaning, scaling up the positive experience of Kharkiv to other frontline regions and the country as a whole. However, the president has not yet announced his decision," Fesenko said in a comment to Interfax-Ukraine.
He emphasizes that Terekhov "is definitely perceived as the most successful mayor in Ukraine. Especially when it comes to a frontline city like Kharkiv, he is one of the most promising political figures."
Regarding the Minister of Defense, the expert emphasizes that Fedorov is a member of the presidential team and the president highly respects him as an effective manager, but he "clearly claims an independent role, particularly in reform processes within his agencies and perhaps in the government as well, whereas the president utilizes a different, centralized model."
"There is a certain risk regarding Fedorov. This is linked to the tension that has built up around him. Various sources report this. Even parliamentary insiders who support Fedorov – and always have – say there is a risk that the 'Servant of the People' faction might not support Fedorov if his candidacy is put forward for Minister of Defense... They say there is tension with some influential figures in the 'Servant of the People' faction, tension in relations with Syrskyi, and an escalation of fierce competition with signs of political tension in the arms market. And that is precisely what the Ministry of Defense handles. Therefore, a scenario involving the replacement of the defense minister is allegedly being considered," Fesenko notes.
He suggested that this position could be assumed by Klymenko, whom Zelenskyy also met on Sunday. "But I think the president has not made a final decision yet. Changing the defense minister every six months is probably not a great idea – such constant turmoil during a war in a strategically vital ministry. Therefore, it is entirely possible that Fedorov might remain in this position," Fesenko suggested.
The expert did not rule out the possibility of a "castling" move and appointing both ministers as deputy prime ministers "to relieve tension during the voting process, avoid certain contradictions, and retain a very valuable player."
"Klymenko could become a Deputy Prime Minister – overseer of security agencies plus the Ministry of Defense, or a Deputy Prime Minister – Minister of Defense, along with oversight over this security and law enforcement bloc. Meanwhile, Fedorov could receive a separate status as a Deputy Prime Minister, possibly dealing with weapons procurement for Ukraine and perhaps certain other issues. Such an option is entirely probable... For now, I think Zelenskyy himself has not yet decided," he said.
Additionally, according to Fesenko, there is a certain risk of replacing Minister of Foreign Affairs Andriy Sybiha, which is connected to the tense situation in relations with Poland and other European nations. "There are rumors that Kyslytsya—the current First Deputy Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine and former First Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs—could become the new minister. But the president will decide all of this. The candidacies for Minister of Foreign Affairs and Minister of Defense are the prerogative of the president under the Constitution," he stressed.
Fesenko also noted that Zelenskyy "did not just announce personnel changes – he spoke about a new political strategy." "I do not think external and internal policy toward Ukraine will change fundamentally, but I think there will be key priorities: for instance, in foreign policy, there is the growing weight of the American direction right now, and I think there could be certain tactical adjustments on the European track. Hence, a potential change of the Deputy Prime Minister for European Integration. The internal direction is also important – specifically, more attention to frontline regions and winter preparations, because the experience of this past winter showed that the problems were major and the risks for the upcoming winter are also significant, so preparation is necessary. And Koretsky, Terekhov, and Shmyhal will be precisely the ones handling this, so this is also one of the priorities," he explained.
The expert suggested the possibility of a government restructuring, noting that "the situation is not new – we have gone through this several times already: consolidation, then separation."
Matviyenko, commenting on the possibility of structural changes in the government, criticized the combination of agriculture and environment in a single ministry. "I hope for a separation. I understand this won't happen, but it needs to be done – the Ministry of Environmental Protection should be separate, acting as that natural prosecutor that ensures environmental protection and the preservation of national natural wealth."
At the same time, he believes that the Ministry of Economy and the Ministry of Infrastructure could be merged. Regarding the separation of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy from the Ministry of Development of Economy, Trade and Agriculture of Ukraine, to which it was attached in 2019, the expert notes that "first, one must understand the government's program, and only then look at the tools – whether agrarian policy should be left within the economy." "I lean toward the opinion that everything relating to land use – agrarian policy plus forestry – should be moved to a separate place. But I do not have full information on what the government intends to do," Matviyenko noted.
