Lack of service terms drives mobilization challenges – InfoLight.UA study
The primary factors causing mobilization challenges in Ukraine are the uncertainty of service terms, distrust of military leadership, and corruption within Territorial Recruitment Centers (TRCs) and Military Medical Commissions (MMCs), according to Yuriy Honcharenko, head of the Research and Analytical Group InfoLight.UA.
"The key reason we have problems with mobilization is the uncertainty of service terms... The second reason is distrust of military command, and the third is corruption in TRCs and MMCs. Regarding corruption, I would note that when we surveyed people, it was usually not personal experience but rather 'I know they take bribes there, I've heard, I've seen,' and so on," Honcharenko said during a public discussion titled "Mobilization and Trust" at Interfax-Ukraine on Friday. The event was organized by the Democracy Promotion Foundation and InfoLight.UA, a joint project with the Hanns Seidel Foundation in Ukraine.
According to respondent feedback, other significant hurdles include the fear of forced mobilization, fear of death or disability, and family circumstances such as caring for children or parents. Respondents also pointed to a lack of proper military training, health concerns, and the inability to choose a specific place of service as deterrents. While these practical and personal concerns were supported by a majority of respondents, political reasons were selected by a smaller portion of the participants.
As part of the study, the InfoLight.UA team conducted over 500 in-depth interviews with representatives of various social groups—including those evading mobilization—and approximately 5,000 detailed online questionnaires. The data, processed using mathematical modeling based on game theory, suggests that society is not monolithically opposed to defending the country but is currently in a state of hesitation.
The study concludes that this group represents either a reserve for a fair system or a source of future resistance if reforms are perceived as unjust. Honcharenko emphasized that people think in categories of rules and predictability rather than just fear, noting that the demand for defined terms of service is one of the strongest motivators for voluntary enlistment. He suggested that the problem could be solved if the state offers a partnership based on clear expectations rather than just requirements.
