An investor, Vice President of the World Jewish Congress Boris Lozhkin, who headed the Administration of the President of Ukraine and was the Secretary of the National Investment Council, expects a global recession in a year or two, caused by the accumulated global imbalances and debts, trade wars (especially between the US and China) and due to the cyclical nature.
“Ukraine will just the same be affected, even though we are on the outskirts ... It is necessary to be more careful with the debts, the investment projects, but if the investments are made into the high-quality projects and management, then business will survive,” Boris Lozhkin shared his advice at the Kyiv International Economic Forum (KIEF).
He noted that such countries as Argentina, Turkey, Brazil, Russia have already experienced the first negative signs. In his opinion, Ukraine has so far been less “touched”, since the country's economy fell very much four years ago.
Boris Lozhkin stressed that the preparation of the Ukrainian business for the recession should include an understanding that it will be difficult to find debt financing.
At the same time, head of the Board of Directors of the Effective Investments group of companies Igor Liski gave a somewhat more optimistic forecast: in his opinion, an adjustment after a strong growth is to be expected, but not a recession. “However, the adjustment will definitely happen,” he said.
In his opinion, the main risks for the global economy are trade wars and political turbulence, while the situation with the traditional crises “suppliers” – the banking sector and the oil industry – does not give such concerns. According to the businessman, the imbalance in the oil industry due to refusal from the fossil fuels is brewing, but it will happen no sooner than in 3-4 years.
“To make investments into the non-speculative projects, to be attentive to debts,” that’s the advice of Igor Liski to the Ukrainian business, before adjustment takes place.
