Russia is working on plans for an additional wave of mobilization in 2026-2027, aiming to recruit 300,000 people this year and 300,000 next year, according to a joint statement by Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence Directorate (HUR) and Foreign Intelligence Service (SZR), published on the Presidential Office’s website on Thursday.
"Russia’s political leadership views carrying out an additional wave of mobilization as a response to the aggressor state’s loss of the initiative in the war, the steady rise in personnel losses at the front, and a noticeable slowdown in the recruitment of contract soldiers in the regions. This is confirmed by Ukrainian intelligence data. Russia’s personnel losses in January-July 2026 amounted to about 240,000, of which at least 140,000 were irrecoverable. At the same time, fewer people were recruited into the Russian occupation contingent on contract during this period - 232,000," the statement said.
According to Ukrainian intelligence, the aggressor state primarily plans to bring up to strength units and military formations fighting against Ukrainians, as well as Russian military units currently being formed.
The statement said a system for issuing electronic mobilization summonses has already been introduced, and an expansion of coercive measures is being developed: bans on leaving Russia, taking out loans, buying or selling real estate, revoking driver’s licenses, freezing bank account funds, and so on. Enterprises are expanding departments handling mobilization work and military registration. As of the end of July 2026, more than 2,500 new job postings had already been recorded on employment platforms for staffing these enterprise mobilization units.
"Most likely, Russia’s leader will make the decision on mobilization after the ‘elections’ to Russia’s State Duma, scheduled for Sept. 18-20 this year," the statement said.
According to HUR and SZR, an additional wave of mobilization and the recruitment of criminal elements on contracts is being prepared, mechanisms for additional recruitment of people serving sentences in Russia’s prison and camp system are being created, and additional coercive measures are being developed. The categories of convicts to be recruited into military service in the occupation contingent have been expanded to include those with outstanding or unexpunged convictions under 11 articles of Russia’s Criminal Code, including smuggling of poisonous, radioactive and explosive substances, weapons and drugs; banditry and organizing or participating in a criminal group (gang); organizing illegal migration; violating safety requirements at fuel and energy sector facilities; and illegal handling, theft or extortion of nuclear materials or radioactive substances.
Russia’s leadership has also approved extending mobilization and contract recruitment to certain numerically significant categories of women serving sentences in prisons and camps. Preparations are also underway to determine quotas for law enforcement agencies to send personnel for mobilized service.
Training some of the mobilized troops at training grounds in Belarus has not been ruled out.
In addition, Russia’s leadership is preparing a set of forceful response measures for possible negative social and economic consequences of shifting cities and regions to a stricter wartime regime, and plans to increase regional authorities’ personal accountability and expand law enforcement agencies’ powers. Mobilization is planned to be carried out against a backdrop of growing dissatisfaction with the war inside Russia itself.
"Internal Russian documents justify the need for an additional wave of mobilization by citing a significant rise in dissatisfaction with the war in the regions (dissatisfaction levels reaching as high as 69%) and a corresponding decline in people willing to sign contracts voluntarily. Contract recruitment problems are most pronounced in the Oryol and Vladimir regions, as well as in Dagestan. In the Kurgan region, monthly plans have been fulfilled at only 57-69% since the start of this year. In the Volgograd region, the number of potential contract recruits has fallen 40% compared with 2025. A trend toward further declines is being recorded in many other Russian regions as well. Compared with 2025, the number of debtors, special-status individuals among convicts and criminal elements, migrants and other categories that had long served as the main recruitment base for service in the Russian army and participation in the war has fallen by 30-40% in some regions. A student recruitment campaign, in which the overwhelming majority of Russian universities took part, has failed," HUR and SZR said.
As reported, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is convinced Russia will carry out a new wave of mobilization for the war against Ukraine after its election campaign this fall. "We believe it won’t be in the major cities. But I don’t think they’ll be able to hide it very well. Their plan is for this to be a kind of peripheral mobilization," he said.
As for where Russia might send the mobilized troops, the president believes it will primarily be toward Kostiantynivka and Sloviansk (Donetsk region).
On Aug. 24, the president said Ukraine will no longer let Russia seize the initiative and will be ready for the mobilization planned in the aggressor state. "Russia doesn’t want peace - it wants mobilization. Well, we’re taking that in with a cool head. We’re acting. We need to strengthen our military and have everything we need to hold the defense. Our soldiers must be provided and equipped with everything, so that reinforcements for the enemy army turn into fertilizer for our land," Zelenskyy said in his Independence Day address to the citizens of Ukraine.
