The assertion that Ukrainian men will massively leave Ukraine after the end of the war and the opening of borders has no grounds, Ella Libanova, Director of the M.V. Ptukha Institute of Demography and Quality of Life Research of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, noted in a special project issue of Open Reality.
Answering a question about widespread forecasts of a mass departure, the expert explained why such a scenario is unlikely. "Going abroad is good when someone is waiting for you there. There will no longer be a status (of temporary protection – IF-U) like before, and the assistance today is not what it was in 2022-2023," she noted.
Libanova named family reunification as the most likely reason for men to go abroad – when a man returns from the front, and his wife and children have already settled their lives in other countries. "If men return from the front or who stayed here for various reasons, but there is no job that would suit them here, housing is destroyed or never existed, and the wife abroad is already employed, rents housing, children go to kindergarten or school – such a risk exists," she explained.
According to the expert's estimate, even in such a case, we are talking at most about half a million people. "But I don't think it will be like that," Libanova said.
She also noted that she sees no confirmation of information about a mass departure of young Ukrainian men aged 18-22 abroad after the relevant permission in August of last year.
According to her, neither Eurostat data nor information from Ukrainian border guards indicates a significant increase in the share of youth among Ukrainians staying abroad, although a certain increase in the total number of departures was indeed recorded.
Libanova stated that she does not consider the division between Ukrainians who stayed in the country and those who left abroad to be a line of social split. In her opinion, the opposition of these groups is largely artificially fueled, primarily by Russia, to intensify internal contradictions. She also stressed that after the war, important conditions for the return of Ukrainians will be security, preservation of trust in the state, and constant communication with citizens abroad with a signal that they are needed by Ukraine.
The Open Reality special project on information security and critical thinking was initiated by the Open Ukraine Foundation and the Kyiv Security Forum – initiatives of former Prime Minister of Ukraine (2014-16) Arseniy Yatsenyuk.
