Since the beginning of July, Russia has fired more ballistic missiles at Ukraine than it reportedly produces per month, indicating that Moscow is likely drawing from its stockpiles, according to experts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
"Russian forces have launched more ballistic missiles against Ukraine thus far in July than Russia reportedly produces each month. Ukrainian defense source Militarnyi reported on July 19 that Russia used up to two-thirds of its planned annual production of Zirkon missiles in July 2026 alone and that Russia launched more ballistic missiles in July than Russia’s reported total monthly production volume," the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) stated in a assessment on its website.
Citing data from the Main Directorate of Intelligence (HUR), the ISW noted that Russia produces approximately 60 Iskander-M ballistic missiles and an additional 40 missiles for S-400 systems per month.
Reports from the Ukrainian Air Force for July indicate that Russia launched 107 ballistic missiles and 20 Zircon missiles against Ukraine during the month. "Russia appears to be drawing on its stockpiles to continue increasing the number of ballistic missiles it launches against Ukraine, as these missiles have a higher success rate than drones and cruise missiles. Russian forces simultaneously reduced the number of drones they launch in each nightly strike package, launching 2,955 in July 2026 compared to 5,749 in June 2026," the ISW noted.
For instance, on the night of July 19, the Radio-Technical Troops of the Air Force recorded 166 means of air attack – 41 missiles and 125 UAVs of various types. These included 10 3M22 Zircon anti-ship missiles (launch areas: Kursk region, Russia); 25 Iskander-M/S-400 ballistic missiles (launch areas: Bryansk and Kursk regions, RF); 3 Onyx anti-ship missiles (launch area: temporarily occupied Autonomous Republic of Crimea); 3 Kh-59/69 guided air-launched missiles (launch area: airspace over the Black Sea); and 125 strike UAVs, including Shahed, Gerber, and Italmas types, "Parodiya" decoy drones, and "Banderol" loitering munitions (from Kursk, Orel, and Millerovo – Russia, and Hvardiiske – temporarily occupied Autonomous Republic of Crimea).
