Establishing a ceasefire in the Russian-Ukrainian war is possible in the coming months, after which Ukraine and partner countries will face a series of economic and social challenges, in particular, the issue of security guarantees, recovery, European integration, and employment of veterans, former President of Poland (1995-2005) Aleksander Kwasniewski has said.
"I think that a long-term peace is something we will not be able to achieve in the foreseeable future. What is possible is a certain kind of ceasefire, and I think that this is a real possibility in the coming months," Kwasniewski said, speaking at the event "Strategic Cooperation for the Prosperity of Ukraine: Combining the Efforts of the Public, Private Sector and Donors to Promote the Reconstruction of Ukraine" within the framework of the Ukraine Recovery Conference (URC 2026) in Poland’s Gdansk on Wednesday.
He believes that successful Ukrainian drone attacks on Moscow, St. Petersburg, and other cities of Russia have changed the psychological situation in Russia. "In our languages, there is a phrase like ‘the calm before the storm.’ My instinct tells me that now we have a storm before the calm. And this silence in the sense of a ceasefire may come, in my opinion, next month," the former President of Poland said.
But a ceasefire, according to him, means that Ukraine will face problems in matters of security, recovery, European integration, and the integration of veterans into society.
"First, these are security guarantees, especially due to the wrong position of America. Ukraine has no chance of becoming a NATO member, but we must offer real, effective security guarantees for Ukraine. The second point is reconstruction, which must be done without waiting for all these agreements, especially a peace agreement… This should be not just construction, since all buildings will be rebuilt, but we must create this Ukraine 2.0, a new Ukraine, modern and open," Kwasniewski said, adding that "Ukraine is ready to be very modern."
"Point number three is the European Union. If you cannot offer Ukraine membership in NATO, which in my opinion would be a very smart and correct decision and technically easy to do, do membership in the EU. This is our common European task. We should think about it, we should work on it, and we should prepare both sides for it. And we have several difficult areas that need to be resolved: agriculture, services, etc.," he added.
Kwasniewski urged the leaders of the EU countries and Ukraine not to wait and discuss these difficult issues, but to start working at the level of experts and cooperation right now.
"I can imagine many political problems in many countries, especially in Europe. Every year there are elections in some countries, and this Ukrainian card is played by some groups that are not very interested [in the European integration of Ukraine] or are supported by Russia to stop or slow down the process of Ukraine’s membership in the European Union. But this is what we must do," the former president said.
As the final point, he called the problem of employment of Ukrainian veterans, emphasizing that it is currently underestimated. "A ceasefire will mean that from this huge Ukrainian army today, which numbers about a million people, it will be necessary to send at least 500,000, 50%, to civilian life, without salaries, without jobs, with many problems – they are victims of this war. This is what we need to discuss now and find a solution on how to deal with this issue, because I can easily imagine that this group will have problems finding a job and their own role in Ukraine, but they will also try to find these opportunities in Europe, and this can create a lot of tension that will be used cynically by all these anti-Ukrainian forces that we have, frankly speaking, in all European countries," Kwasniewski said.
According to him, all this must be discussed with European partners and special programs must be prepared for veterans, many of whom have been on the front line for over four years, and some have been fighting since 2014.
"This is the only work they have done in their lives. I emphasize this problem because we are morally text-bound to offer something for these people," Kwasniewski said.
