Deputy commander of the First Separate Center for Unmanned Systems of the State Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) Roman Parkhanov explained how the strike on the Moscow Oil Refinery-the "fuel heart of the entire capital region"-is changing the nature of the Russian rear.
In an exclusive comment to the Interfax-Ukraine news agency, the First Separate Center for Unmanned Systems of the Security Service of Ukraine said "until recently, the Russian capital existed in a parallel reality," but the strike on the Moscow Oil Refinery has radically changed the situation.
"While the regions of Russia were bearing the full brunt of the hostilities, Moscow remained an untouchable showcase. However, the strike on the Moscow oil refinery has finally turned the page on this chapter of history. Despite Mayor Sergei Sobyanin's statements about the "successful operation of air defense," it is no longer possible to conceal the irreversibility of the war on Russian territory," Parkhanov said.
He said the Moscow oil refinery is not just one of many enterprises, but rather "the fuel heart of the entire metropolitan region."
"The refinery supplied about 35% of Moscow's fuel needs, and for some products, it covered up to half of the total volume of gasoline and diesel consumed by this massive city. When an attack takes place just 15 kilometers from the Kremlin, it instantly shatters two key myths: one about the capital's air defense system and the other that turns the war from a TV screen into a real threat," the deputy commander said.
According to him, the strike on the plant triggered an acute fuel crisis that threatens the internal stability of the Russian Federation.
"The fuel crisis has long been the norm for Russian provinces and occupied territories. Now the problem has erupted at the very heart of decision-making," he said.
As emphasized by the First Separate Center for Unmanned Systems of the Special Forces, "the Kremlin now has only two courses of action, and both lead to an internal crisis."
"Option one: Take fuel and diesel from other regions of the Russian Federation to artificially flood Muscovites with gasoline and maintain the illusion of a "prosperous peace." This will deepen the crisis throughout Russia but preserve calm in the capital. Option two: Introduce fuel ration cards in Moscow itself, demonstrating that everyone must pay for imperial grandeur," Parkhanov said.
According to the deputy commander, the Russian authorities will most likely choose to acknowledge the shortage and impose fuel limits in Moscow itself.
"But the main effect of the strikes on the Moscow Oil Refinery is not only economic but also psychological. The main social contract between the Kremlin and society-which went something like this: "The government wages war-the capital rests"-is being shattered. Today, this contract has been officially broken. The realization that there are no longer any safe zones in the country-and that the capital's status no longer protects it from airstrikes-is having a paralyzing effect. The notion of a 'safe Moscow' is officially a thing of the past. The new reality for the capital of the aggressor state is life under the shadow of war, which is establishing its own long-term rules there," Parkhanov said.
