Russian command refocuses on Kostiantynivka after setbacks near Sloviansk – ISW
Russian military command has likely shifted its priority to capturing Kostiantynivka after encountering difficulties advancing on Sloviansk, the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports.
"Russian forces launched their Spring-Summer 2026 offensive with a series of mechanized assaults around Lyman (northeast of Slovyansk), indicating that the Russian military command likely intended to prioritize advancing on Slovyansk from the northeast, but Russian forces failed to subsequently make any significant advances in the area," the June 10 report published on Thursday reads.
The report notes that Russia’s Western Group of Forces’ area of responsibility stretches from the Kupyansk axis to the Lyman axis and likely lacks the combat capacity to conduct a coordinated offensive on Slovyansk (also spelled Sloviansk) while simultaneously balancing offensive operations on the Kupyansk and Borova axes. Ukrainian forces have also recently conducted counterattacks on the Borova axis, likely forcing Russian forces to choose between defending positions and advancing north and northwest of Lyman.
Overall, analysts indicate, Russia may achieve tactical successes in the area by the end of summer, but operational advances are unlikely.
"Russian forces will likely achieve tactical successes in Kostiantynivka during the summer of 2026 but are unlikely to achieve operational victories over the ‘fortress belt’ as a whole. Russian forces will likely continue to infiltrate Kostiantynivka and consolidate positions in individual parts of the city while likely sustaining significant losses. Russia’s 3rd Army operating northeast of Kostiantynivka appears to be trying to push Ukrainian forces out of Chasiv Yar, which limits their ability to encircle Kostiantynivka from the north," ISW concluded.